tonyr
Member of DD Central
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Post by tonyr on Oct 8, 2020 12:22:38 GMT
Thanks for tracking this @dead-money, I'm following with interest, I'm sure I'm not alone. Yes, huge thanks from me as well. I was lucky enough to get some out at about 6.5% a while ago and thanks to this thread I've got most of the rest out at somewhere between 6.5% and 6.1% over the last 24 hours.
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mogish
Member of DD Central
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Post by mogish on Oct 8, 2020 20:39:39 GMT
Thanks for tracking this @dead-money, I'm following with interest, I'm sure I'm not alone. Yes, huge thanks from me as well. I was lucky enough to get some out at about 6.5% a while ago and thanks to this thread I've got most of the rest out at somewhere between 6.5% and 6.1% over the last 24 hours. I also would like to pass my thanks on.... just rest my discount to 6.1 and sold within the hour ..cheers
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 8, 2020 21:22:42 GMT
I think the discount rates still have lower to dive. Will they break 5.6, who knows! I think that largely depends on any new AC newsletters/emails!
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ian
Posts: 342
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Post by ian on Oct 9, 2020 7:54:07 GMT
Got a bit out at 6% yesterday. Given recent events & taking #227 as a precedent. AC appear to be happy for MLA to have a haircut and GBBA to have a trim. Access account holders have been protected. Although it’s early days the best steer on a reasonable discount would be the opportunity cost / benefit of investing elsewhere. If you can get your money away in a safer haven at circa 10% then 6% is reasonable; if not stay put.
As I’ve said before I think the true discount line will end up between 4&5%. Which allows sellers to invest in other opps at 9% plus and gives buyers the margin for a circa 8% haircut on average LTVs of 60%.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Oct 9, 2020 8:12:04 GMT
I think the discount rates still have lower to dive. Will they break 5.6, who knows! I think that largely depends on any new AC newsletters/emails! Even in the early days the discount never went below 5.6%
Until AC start publishing regular, in-depth stats on the level of coverage for the distressed loans, either in aggregate or individually, we can't determine the true fair price of the Access Account holdings, at least not without a lot of labour intensive number crunching!
So in the absence of an independent auditor assessing the fair price of the holdings, my best guess is the discount is actually too low and doesn't reflect the potential capital losses to come.
NB Assetz Capital's Annual report and shareholder update are due any day now, including a promised update on trading since March 2020.
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Post by drphil on Oct 9, 2020 9:41:14 GMT
I think the discount rates still have lower to dive. Will they break 5.6, who knows! I think that largely depends on any new AC newsletters/emails!That's my main worry too in terms of getting a good discount in the short-term
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Oct 12, 2020 6:53:21 GMT
The buy/sell spread on a £1000 purchase/sale is now 5.9% / 6.09% .
Rates seem to be coming down. I wonder in today's covid19 announcement from B.Johnson esq will have any impact ?
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
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Post by dead-money on Oct 12, 2020 7:57:34 GMT
Mon 28/09/20 4pm 8.0% / 8.2%
Tue 29/09/20 8pm 8.0% / 8.2%
Wed 30/09/20 8am 7.8% / 7.9%
5pm 7.5% / 7.6%
Thu 01/10/20 8am 7.0% / 7.5% - 8.1% Noon 7.4% / 7.7% 5pm 7.4% / 7.5% - 7.9%
Fri 02/10/20 9am 7.3% / 7.6%
Sat 03/10/20 9am 7.0% / 7.5% - 7.6% Sun 04/10/20 8am 6.7% / 7.0% - 7.2%
Tue 06/10/20 10pm 6.4% / 6.6% - 7.1% Wed 07/10/20 11am 6.3% / 6.4%
1pm 6.2% / 6.4%
8pm 6.3% / 6.5%
Thu 08/10/20 9am 6.3% / 6.5% - 6.6%
6pm 6.2% / 6.4% - 6.6% Fri 09/10/20 6pm 6.2% / 6.4%
Sat 10/10/20 9am 6.1% / 6.2% Sun 11/10/20 6pm 6.0% / 6.1%
Mon 12/10/20 9am 6.3% / 6.4% Tue 13/10/20 9am 6.2% / 6.5%
Wed 14/10/20 9am 6.4% / 6.6% - 6.7% Thu 15/10/20 9am 6.7% / 7.0% - 7.5%
Fri 16/10/20 9am 6.9% / 7.4% - 7.5% Sat 17/10/20 9am 6.5% / 6.7% - 7.0%
Sun 18/10/20 9am 6.5% / 6.7% - 6.8%
2pm 6.7% / 7.0% - 7.1%
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Post by Ace on Oct 12, 2020 9:17:34 GMT
I'm trying to deploy more funds from my P2P pot (referred to by my other half as my P'ing pot) as I've increased it due to a recent inheritance. I'd like to increase my AC exposure, but find it impossible to do so without breaking my own rules on max per loan. I mainly invest in the MLA and find that the steady flow of repayments combined with the lack of new loans is forcing me to concentrate my funds over fewer and fewer loans. I've already broken my rules on a few loans to take advantage of some discounts.
I have invested recent funds in the Access Accounts when discounts were in double digits, and would do so again if they returned to this level, possibly even at 9ish%. For me, I feel that's the right level of discount given the current extremely slow access at par and a small premium for PF risk. In the past I've used these accounts for my readily accessible funds, with full understanding that the accessibility was not guaranteed and was therefore not to be relied upon. I also used GS, LW and Loanpad for the same purpose. So, I now find myself very overweight in Loanpad as my last bastion for what I perceive to be lower rate, fairly secure, and readily accessible funds. I've recently been deploying some of these funds in my higher risk platforms with highly active SMs. It's an alternative way of achieving the accessibility, but at a higher risk than I would really like.
At this rate I will soon be forced to drawdown from AC rather than increase.
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trevor
Member of DD Central
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Post by trevor on Oct 12, 2020 11:51:54 GMT
I'm trying to deploy more funds from my P2P pot (referred to by my other half as my P'ing pot) as I've increased it due to a recent inheritance. I'd like to increase my AC exposure, but find it impossible to do so without breaking my own rules on max per loan. I mainly invest in the MLA and find that the steady flow of repayments combined with the lack of new loans is forcing me to concentrate my funds over fewer and fewer loans. I've already broken my rules on a few loans to take advantage of some discounts. I have invested recent funds in the Access Accounts when discounts were in double digits, and would do so again if they returned to this level, possibly even at 9ish%. For me, I feel that's the right level of discount given the current extremely slow access at par and a small premium for PF risk. In the past I've used these accounts for my readily accessible funds, with full understanding that the accessibility was not guaranteed and was therefore not to be relied upon. I also used GS, LW and Loanpad for the same purpose. So, I now find myself very overweight in Loanpad as my last bastion for what I perceive to be lower rate, fairly secure, and readily accessible funds. I've recently been deploying some of these funds in my higher risk platforms with highly active SMs. It's an alternative way of achieving the accessibility, but at a higher risk than I would really like. At this rate I will soon be forced to drawdown from AC rather than increase. I have the same problem, as cash becomes available from interest and capital repayments I'd like to redeploy but I have learnt from bitter experience not to break my max per loan. Loans that look good suddenly give a very nasty surprise when least expected. Don't break your own rules, you'll regret it, it's just a matter of when, not if. Consequently most of my repayment cash is withdrawn. It hurts to put it in a ~1% interest account but at least it's FSCS.
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Post by stuartassetzcapital on Oct 12, 2020 12:47:53 GMT
What are people's thoughts on the AA rate of returns when factoring in that the target rate pays on the gross investment, not the discount rate, and also how the discount should be factored into the total rate of return and over what period. And compare / contrast to MLA investment and its returns and no provision fund coverage. Would be interested in people's thinking especially given the wish to invest at modest exposure per loan and the hundreds of loans in the AAs.
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sapphire
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Post by sapphire on Oct 12, 2020 12:59:22 GMT
What are people's thoughts on the AA rate of returns when factoring in that the target rate pays on the gross investment, not the discount rate, and also how the discount should be factored into the total rate of return and over what period. And compare / contrast to MLA investment and its returns and no provision fund coverage. Would be interested in people's thinking especially given the wish to invest at modest exposure per loan and the hundreds of loans in the AAs. Without details on the underlying loans in the AA (as has been outlined and requested previously by other forum members) investing in the AA feels a bit like putting money into a lottery without knowing the odds of success. Without this info I am not comfortable investing.
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alender
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Post by alender on Oct 12, 2020 13:45:23 GMT
What are people's thoughts on the AA rate of returns when factoring in that the target rate pays on the gross investment, not the discount rate, and also how the discount should be factored into the total rate of return and over what period. And compare / contrast to MLA investment and its returns and no provision fund coverage. Would be interested in people's thinking especially given the wish to invest at modest exposure per loan and the hundreds of loans in the AAs. Without details on the underlying loans in the AA (as has been outlined and requested previously by other forum members) investing in the AA feels a bit like putting money into a lottery without knowing the odds of success. Without this info I am not comfortable investing. There is more information I would like to see on the AAs before I could decide on the rate of return which will cover the risk. These are
- A month by month breakdown of the commitments to future loan tranches.
- What is AC intention for the Cash in the accounts as these are not being distributed to lenders wishing to exit.
- What is AC plan for the rate of interest, something more solid than we intend to raise them when the time is right.
- Some definite plans with dates on recovery of distressed loans like D******d M***** Limited and expected returns.
- The expected rate of repayments for those wishing to exit.
- The amount in the exit queue.
- The amount of funds held by people in the exit so we can get an idea of what proportion we get when a payout is made.
- Are there any definite plans to return the AAs to access accounts or are they locked in perpetuity, comments like it depends on Covid, the lock down etc mean nothing, I would like to know if AC themselves can bring anything to the table to help, not just wait for a change of economic wind. The only measure so far is the SM which has made the situation worse, would like to see something positive.
- What do AC think the chances some loans in the AAs becoming untradable, the loan amounts and timescales .i.e. some sort of table giving AC current estimates of loans, amount of the loans, % chance of being untradeable and when is is likely to happen, a future monthly breakdown would be good.
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ceejay
Posts: 975
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Post by ceejay on Oct 12, 2020 13:55:41 GMT
What are people's thoughts on the AA rate of returns when factoring in that the target rate pays on the gross investment, not the discount rate, and also how the discount should be factored into the total rate of return and over what period. And compare / contrast to MLA investment and its returns and no provision fund coverage. Would be interested in people's thinking especially given the wish to invest at modest exposure per loan and the hundreds of loans in the AAs. Without details on the underlying loans in the AA (as has been outlined and requested previously by other forum members) investing in the AA feels a bit like putting money into a lottery without knowing the odds of success. Without this info I am not comfortable investing. I roughly agree with this, although personally I'd shift the emphasis from details on the underlying loans (a lot of which is visible if you go looking) to better information on the quality of the portfolio as a whole. The AAs are very difficult to value at the moment.
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ian
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Post by ian on Oct 12, 2020 14:09:20 GMT
What are people's thoughts on the AA rate of returns when factoring in that the target rate pays on the gross investment, not the discount rate, and also how the discount should be factored into the total rate of return and over what period. And compare / contrast to MLA investment and its returns and no provision fund coverage. Would be interested in people's thinking especially given the wish to invest at modest exposure per loan and the hundreds of loans in the AAs. For me the discount reflects the expected loss on default recovery. Clearly you don’t give us access to all the relevant data such as the cash position for each of access accounts 1/3/20 & 1/10/20; how much is set for withdrawal; How much exposure do the access accounts have to further tranche funding & the date do you envisage all redeemed capital will be returned to investors rather than used to fund further tranches. However as a simple rule of thumb I envisage the present net LTVS are 60%, the 6% merely indicates investors expect a 10% shortfall in capital returned i.e 54% will be recovered. Alternatively it could reflects the Opportunity elsewhere. In the past 7 months I’ve managed to recover 10% of my capital and I’ve had a 4% return pa. IF I can invest elsewhere for 12 months at 10% I’m will to take a 6% hit with the bonus being in 12 months time my capital (or rather an additional circa 80% of it) is liquid not tied up a NON ACCESS ACCOUNT.
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