dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Nov 29, 2020 15:55:40 GMT
Interest day on Tuesday, I suspect we'll some 0.1-0.5% trading downwards. Least I will be using my interest to pick up better compounding on my investments in the 90daa. I still ponder what the long term plan is for removing the SM market, if at all? Just trade to PAR? I live for the day when the accounts will trade at a premium ;-)
I'm assuming discount has risen this week as people are sitting tight waiting for the monthly interest payout, once that's reinvested and pushed the discount down then the cycle begins again for another month...
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Post by Harland Kearney on Nov 29, 2020 16:07:02 GMT
Interest day on Tuesday, I suspect we'll some 0.1-0.5% trading downwards. Least I will be using my interest to pick up better compounding on my investments in the 90daa. I still ponder what the long term plan is for removing the SM market, if at all? Just trade to PAR? I live for the day when the accounts will trade at a premium ;-)
I'm assuming discount has risen this week as people are sitting tight waiting for the monthly interest payout, once that's reinvested and pushed the discount down then the cycle begins again for another month...
The day people PAY ME for some defaulted loans will be a bright day indeed.  Jokes aside, I feel the discount in the long term will continue to subside, long term meaning 18 months from now. That is of course, assuming AC don't kick up any fur balls during that time... The next event to keep focused on as I pointed out last month will be the Lender "membership" fees. If these are removed or at the very least reduced, I think it will reflect well on the AA's. Even if it doesn't make wholly logical sense as to why it would move the markets, it simply will be interpretated as another boost of confidence to the platforms health. I only keeping my investments because they are in a ISA wrapper, may as well use the 90 daa, pick up discounts and go on. Long term I'm confident enough that selling and removing ISA money would be a long term bad plan. Can always goto cash in years to come and transfer it out when the envioment changes for the better.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Nov 29, 2020 16:22:07 GMT
Elsewhere Stuart is making positive noises about restarting retail lending, but of course proofs in the pudding.
Until they do restart lending I don't expect the lender fee to cease.
NB The lender fee has had far more impact on MLA returns than AA returns.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Dec 1, 2020 2:12:50 GMT
Buy discount 3.3%, as I expected a pretty dip. Maybe we will see this stabilize towards the end of tommorrow. I have a suspision that some sellers haven't actually filed sell orders as they wait for the discount to subside during tommorrow.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Dec 8, 2020 10:43:26 GMT
I only have 1K to test. but it was 3.30-3.60 about an hour ago
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 8, 2020 12:18:07 GMT
As I’ve said before whilst there’s “noise” about lending in it’s various forms - CBILS, MLA-underwritten, retail-whatever-that-means - there is little actual lending that I can see. For all the random bits on various MLA loans - tranche-loans or refinance - there’s very little evidence of CBILS drawdowns. There’s still been only one MLA-underwriten new loan. With traditionally quiet months of December and January upon us the wait for new lending signs will need to be put on hold for a few months. Let’s hope the waiting followed by two months or more of “on hold” isn’t followed by more waiting! And that’s just waiting for signs of new lending!!! January is not quiet! It is one of the busiest months of the year for lenders - especially to retail borrowers. In the good old days (2005-2009) at Zopa you shift a truckload of money at good rates
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mogish
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Post by mogish on Dec 8, 2020 12:51:51 GMT
Wish something would hurry up and change , this discounting is hurting. Just a bit spooked with the goings on over at LW. Interest rates roc bottom, markets sky high, its tempting to sit tight but my gut says otherwise.
Even if ac tried to resolve some of the gbba defaukts might help investor moral.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Dec 8, 2020 15:16:06 GMT
As I’ve said before whilst there’s “noise” about lending in it’s various forms - CBILS, MLA-underwritten, retail-whatever-that-means - there is little actual lending that I can see. For all the random bits on various MLA loans - tranche-loans or refinance - there’s very little evidence of CBILS drawdowns. There’s still been only one MLA-underwriten new loan. With traditionally quiet months of December and January upon us the wait for new lending signs will need to be put on hold for a few months. Let’s hope the waiting followed by two months or more of “on hold” isn’t followed by more waiting! And that’s just waiting for signs of new lending!!! January is not quiet! It is one of the busiest months of the year for lenders - especially to retail borrowers. In the good old days (2005-2009) at Zopa you shift a truckload of money at good rates Why would AC be lending to retail borrowers, they never have and never will. Comparing apples and oranges there, maybe just a miss comm? The businesses which AC originate traditionally are hard-pressed for survival and our still heavily involved with free grants of the sorts. If AC recommences borrowing on AA's, I would expect it to be few & far between until Spring. However, the confidence of re-lending would far outweigh the real term effects on the Portfolio in the short term (positively)
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Post by oppsididitagain on Dec 9, 2020 8:06:01 GMT
I managed to sell out 2.5K of AA money overnight 1.5K at 3.2 and 1K at 3.10
its now 3.3-3.4 in 1K.
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ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 9, 2020 9:28:55 GMT
January is not quiet! It is one of the busiest months of the year for lenders - especially to retail borrowers. In the good old days (2005-2009) at Zopa you shift a truckload of money at good rates Why would AC be lending to retail borrowers, they never have and never will. Comparing apples and oranges there, maybe just a miss comm? The businesses which AC originate traditionally are hard-pressed for survival and our still heavily involved with free grants of the sorts. If AC recommences borrowing on AA's, I would expect it to be few & far between until Spring. However, the confidence of re-lending would far outweigh the real term effects on the Portfolio in the short term (positively) Didn’t make myself clear. January is a busy month for lending to business, and especially busy for retail lending.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Dec 9, 2020 16:00:07 GMT
Buy discount is only 3.09% right now
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Post by Companion Cube on Dec 9, 2020 21:02:39 GMT
Buy discount is only 3.09% right now Hi Harland, I'm concerned that these 2 decimal place figures are misleading people. I am in the 3.1 queue with not a trivial amount so for you to get a figure of 3.09, you must have an even larger amount available in cash. Someone else with nowhere near that amount could check and be confused that the rate is actually 3.2 or 3.3. In your case your cash could span the entire 3.3, 3.2, 3.1 bands and some of the 3.0 band, effectively pulling the rate down to 3.09. Not 'avin' a go, just clarifying that the rate is a personal rate based on your cash holdings.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Dec 9, 2020 21:58:13 GMT
Buy discount is only 3.09% right now Hi Harland, I'm concerned that these 2 decimal place figures are misleading people. I am in the 3.1 queue with not a trivial amount so for you to get a figure of 3.09, you must have an even larger amount available in cash. Someone else with nowhere near that amount could check and be confused that the rate is actually 3.2 or 3.3. In your case your cash could span the entire 3.3, 3.2, 3.1 bands and some of the 3.0 band, effectively pulling the rate down to 3.09. Not 'avin' a go, just clarifying that the rate is a personal rate based on your cash holdings. Yes, that or somebody offered a discount at that specfic time when I went to reinvest some repaid capital, is possible. AC works in mysterious ways, it would be nice to have some graph or something from AC tracking discounts but that isn't quite how it works. I wouldn't be surprised that if we see no more bad news, come the next interest payment we could see 3.0 or into the the 2% range. I don't expect we'll be seeing any new loans in the AA till after xmas though, but I could be wrong.
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Post by Companion Cube on Dec 9, 2020 22:13:44 GMT
Hi Harland, I'm concerned that these 2 decimal place figures are misleading people. I am in the 3.1 queue with not a trivial amount so for you to get a figure of 3.09, you must have an even larger amount available in cash. Someone else with nowhere near that amount could check and be confused that the rate is actually 3.2 or 3.3. In your case your cash could span the entire 3.3, 3.2, 3.1 bands and some of the 3.0 band, effectively pulling the rate down to 3.09. Not 'avin' a go, just clarifying that the rate is a personal rate based on your cash holdings. Yes, that or somebody offered a discount at that specfic time when I went to reinvest some repaid capital, is possible. AC works in mysterious ways, it would be nice to have some graph or something from AC tracking discounts but that isn't quite how it works. I wouldn't be surprised that if we see no more bad news, come the next interest payment we could see 3.0 or into the the 2% range. I don't expect we'll be seeing any new loans in the AA till after xmas though, but I could be wrong. Yes, I'm hoping for the 2.x% discount but I need to pay for a new kitchen and my looming tax bill, hence the trying for 3.1% now. Hopefully the rest of my holdings will exit next year at 2% ish anything more is too unpalatable for me.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 10, 2020 9:38:09 GMT
>2% is not unpalatable if the alternative is a tax fine. Maybe discounts will go up as end Jan appproaches...
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