ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Dec 5, 2020 8:23:13 GMT
It's a real shame P2P is dying. I really loved the ethos. I think its time may come again, but it'll be a couple of years yet. Given the current climate, it wouldn't surprise me if "No more P2P" won it by a mile... Given the history of these polls does this in fact mean, this is the wrong choice  ? Bitcoin hits new all time high And this is the beginning of the bull run for bitcoin: fixed supply, no government control, how could it not be? I'm absolutely expecting $100k bitcoin in the next two years. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure.
With the US creating 20% of all the dollars that have ever existed out of thin air this year as a reaction to Covid-19. Some of it went to the public in "stimulus" cheques, most of it went to their friends in high places who are now wealthier than ever before.
20%. Of everything. Every person who lives and died and worked saved and spent, every public programme, every war, every single second of work. Ever, in the history of the US. Just by someone typing numbers into a computer. No real work, no real value of wealth; just a few seconds of typing. Let that sink in for a minute.
Bitcoin/Gold/Silver will be seen as a safe haven from this disgusting and absurd theft.
And this concludes today's rant.
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rogedavi
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Post by rogedavi on Dec 7, 2020 9:51:10 GMT
That is quite ranty indeed.
Bitcoin investors seem to fall into 3 groups.
1) The tin hatters who think the whole world is going to collapse and they magically forsaw it and will become exceedingly rich. Bitcoin is a great vehicle if you are Chinese and want to circumvent capital controls to get it over the border but its not going to survive a systemic collapse.
2) The tulipers who use fundamental arguments to explain why bitcoin is worth x (real answer: like gold its worth what other people are willing to pay for it) and are effectively nothing more than salesman which fuel and feed the mania. They sincerely believe in it.
3) The scalpers who are not fundamentally tin hatters, nor tulipers, but just see an opportunity to make a buck trading and hope they arent the ones holding the bag when the whole things come down.
The problem I forsee with Bitcoin is that its clear governments want to launch their own digital currencies in the near future. They have been happy to see how the bitcoin experiment evolves and are taking notes, but you can bet one thing for sure - when they move forward with implementation, they will not allow a competitor on their monetary monopoly and will immedietely outlaw and criminalise any transactions with it. As we have seen in the P2P world that number that sits in your account is entirely fictitious when you cant realise it (and even if you can, everyone is trying to do so at the same time). There may be arguments that it is supposed to function as a competitor, but if the government says its 10 years in prison for anyone transacting in bitcoin ("money laundering") then its effectively worthless unless you already operate in the criminal spectrum.
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ribs
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Post by ribs on Dec 7, 2020 17:43:45 GMT
I'm not in any of those three groups. Not saying they don't exist, but if that's all you think Bitcoin is, you're missing the point entirely.
I did start typing a response to this. But I have a feeling you won't bother to read it, and I don't have the time/energy to get into a argument about it to try to convince you.
Either you get it, or you don't. And by the looks of things, you don't. I didn't get it at first. It was just nerd money. Didn't make any sense. Didn't see the point. Took me years after first hearing about it to "get" it.
Now I see the point. Oh wow do I see the point. Typing numbers into a database, which is what the US and the UK have done, is not wealth creation; it's numbers in a database which they then give to their friends, which also makes all of us poorer. It's theft, pure and simple.
On the off chanced anyone reads this and maybe wants to learn something: Maybe view this film. I don't agree with all of it, but it makes very important points. This is also a very good interview from a CEO who ploughed a lot of his firms' wealth into bitcoin after discovering this year (skip to 3:19 if you don't want to listen to the sponsor messages), he's very good at what he does.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 7, 2020 19:44:18 GMT
It's a real shame P2P is dying. I really loved the ethos. I think its time may come again, but it'll be a couple of years yet. Bitcoin hits new all time high And this is the beginning of the bull run for bitcoin: fixed supply, no government control, how could it not be? I'm absolutely expecting $100k bitcoin in the next two years. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure.
With the US creating 20% of all the dollars that have ever existed out of thin air this year as a reaction to Covid-19. Some of it went to the public in "stimulus" cheques, most of it went to their friends in high places who are now wealthier than ever before.
20%. Of everything. Every person who lives and died and worked saved and spent, every public programme, every war, every single second of work. Ever, in the history of the US. Just by someone typing numbers into a computer. No real work, no real value of wealth; just a few seconds of typing. Let that sink in for a minute.
Bitcoin/Gold/Silver will be seen as a safe haven from this disgusting and absurd theft.
And this concludes today's rant.
A few things I don't understand with the points made. 1) Re: bitcoin's fixed supply driving up the price, why would this make it inherently valuable? There is an incredibly limited supply of my earwax available for purchase, yet few takers at any price. 2) You say "Then they lie to us and say inflation is 0.7% and I can't get get anything above 0.5% on my savings without taking risk. They are stealing from all of us" Why is a below inflation return theft? If it is theft, does that make an above inflation rate return charity? And when bitcoin/gold/silver fall by 10% in a year, is that theft too? If not, why not? 3) Ref: Governments creating money, yes that's how it has always worked. You say "No real work, no real value of wealth" re: increasing money supply, but what work have you done in holding your bitcoin and watching it double in value? 4) Yes, the World is a corrupt place full of politicians/kings/powerful people with their snouts in the trough. Do you think these people are going to allow Bitcoin into the mainstream regulatory system? Or that bitcoin can somehow break out of it by itself, despite not even having achieved being accepted at Tesco so far? 5) What otherwise is the fundamental possible future value of Bitcoin beyond an increasingly number of people believing it's worth something just 'because'? - Blockchain has some value, but blockchain does not equal Bitcoin - As a currency, it's useless - it fluctuates in value by double digit % amounts in day, it's difficult to acquire, store and dispense. Not great for daily life. - It's easily and frequently stolen. - It does have some limited use in places where the monetary system has fallen / is falling apart (e.g. Venezuela/Turkey), but the US$ is probably a better alternative in those places. Don't get me wrong, I agree its price could well continue to soar and I could even stretch to agreeing that crypto might be worth holding in order to make more real money. But as per rogedavi s comments, in my view too that's simply because enough people believe it has value and are willing to pay the price.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 7, 2020 19:49:16 GMT
I'm not in any of those three groups. Not saying they don't exist, but if that's all you think Bitcoin is, you're missing the point entirely.
I did start typing a response to this. But I have a feeling you won't bother to read it, and I don't have the time/energy to get into a argument about it to try to convince you.
Either you get it, or you don't. And by the looks of things, you don't. I didn't get it at first. It was just nerd money. Didn't make any sense. Didn't see the point. Took me years after first hearing about it to "get" it.
Now I see the point. Oh wow do I see the point. Typing numbers into a database, which is what the US and the UK have done, is not wealth creation; it's numbers in a database which they then give to their friends, which also makes all of us poorer. It's theft, pure and simple.
On the off chanced anyone reads this and maybe wants to learn something: Maybe view this film. I don't agree with all of it, but it makes very important points. This is also a very good interview from a CEO who ploughed a lot of his firms' wealth into bitcoin after discovering this year (skip to 3:19 if you don't want to listen to the sponsor messages), he's very good at what he does. Isn't bit coin just creating something out of computer power (mining) sooner or later someone is going build a big enough computer (cheaply) or highjack enough computers to flood the market with bitcoin, just like QE.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 7, 2020 20:17:12 GMT
I'm not in any of those three groups. Not saying they don't exist, but if that's all you think Bitcoin is, you're missing the point entirely.
I did start typing a response to this. But I have a feeling you won't bother to read it, and I don't have the time/energy to get into a argument about it to try to convince you.
Either you get it, or you don't. And by the looks of things, you don't. I didn't get it at first. It was just nerd money. Didn't make any sense. Didn't see the point. Took me years after first hearing about it to "get" it.
Now I see the point. Oh wow do I see the point. Typing numbers into a database, which is what the US and the UK have done, is not wealth creation; it's numbers in a database which they then give to their friends, which also makes all of us poorer. It's theft, pure and simple.
On the off chanced anyone reads this and maybe wants to learn something: Maybe view this film. I don't agree with all of it, but it makes very important points. This is also a very good interview from a CEO who ploughed a lot of his firms' wealth into bitcoin after discovering this year (skip to 3:19 if you don't want to listen to the sponsor messages), he's very good at what he does. Isn't bit coin just creating something out of computer power (mining) s ooner or later someone is going build a big enough computer (cheaply) or highjack enough computers to flood the market with bitcoin, just like QE. Unfortunately, the number of available coins is finite and it gets more and more difficult to mine them (also consider that the amount of electricity needed for the mining could be greater than the value of the coins you get). I think a small number of people made money mining lots of coins in the early days, when they were easy to get. Now you need a warehouse of computers to have any chance of getting anything.
Mining bitcoins is a bit like having premium bonds. Most people get diddly squat, and a very small number of lucky punters strike it rich.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 7, 2020 21:11:34 GMT
<snip> On the off chanced anyone reads this and maybe wants to learn something:
Maybe view this film. I don't agree with all of it, but it makes very important points. This is also a very good interview from a CEO who ploughed a lot of his firms' wealth into bitcoin after discovering this year (skip to 3:19 if you don't want to listen to the sponsor messages), he's very good at what he does. Always interested in the possibility of learning something but ... a) the first link is just a url for a website: Maybe view [a href="http://hardmoney.com"]this[/a] film.and b) the second link refers back to itself (as an empty 'url'): [a href=""]This[/a] is alsoAny chance you could rectify, please?
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Dec 10, 2020 8:15:17 GMT
<snip> On the off chanced anyone reads this and maybe wants to learn something:
Maybe view this film. I don't agree with all of it, but it makes very important points. This is also a very good interview from a CEO who ploughed a lot of his firms' wealth into bitcoin after discovering this year (skip to 3:19 if you don't want to listen to the sponsor messages), he's very good at what he does. Always interested in the possibility of learning something but ... a) the first link is just a url for a website: Maybe view [a href="http://hardmoney.com"]this[/a] film.and b) the second link refers back to itself (as an empty 'url'): [a href=""]This[/a] is alsoAny chance you could rectify, please? Fixed! Sorry! I was in a bit of a hurry and ballsed that one right up!
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ribs
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Post by ribs on Dec 10, 2020 8:25:01 GMT
Isn't bit coin just creating something out of computer power (mining) sooner or later someone is going build a big enough computer (cheaply) or highjack enough computers to flood the market with bitcoin, just like QE. No. This is completely wrong.
The network adjusts to force blocks to be found roughly every 10 minutes. A block then has the "new bitcoin" reward within it.
If more computing power comes online, it becomes harder to find blocks.
This adjustment happens every 2016 blocks, which is roughly every two weeks. At most you could hold off mining until the next adjustment, add a lot of computing power and blast through those 2016 blocks, but then the network will compensate for your extra computing power and we're back to 10 minutes per block again.
And when I say "a lot", I really mean a huge amount of extra computing power. Entire warehouses of specialised computing power is working on this task. It's not like scouring eBay for as many laptops as possible. It's going to be exceedingly difficult to pull this off.
In addition to that, every 210,000, roughly every 4 years, the reward for finding the block using this computing power is halved. It started at 50, then 25, then 12.5 and now it's 6.25. Roughly 21,000,000 bitcoin will ever be mined, when the block rewards goes to zero in 2140.
It's almost like smart people have put thought into this. I invite you, next time you type "Isn't bitcoin just..." that you ask the question: "Has someone else already asked this?". The answer is always yes and a quick bit of research will show how it's been dealt with. And people who are way smarter than me have already figured this kind of stuff out. It's confusing at first, but once you get the basics down, it's actually easier to wrap your head around then the "traditional" finance system.
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ribs
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Post by ribs on Dec 10, 2020 8:51:19 GMT
A few things I don't understand with the points made. 1) Re: bitcoin's fixed supply driving up the price, why would this make it inherently valuable? There is an incredibly limited supply of my earwax available for purchase, yet few takers at any price It doesn't. The supply and demand does. I can create a new coin called RibsCoin tomorrow and make only 5 of them. The supply is fixed to 5. Nobody is going to buy them. Unless you want in on the ground floor? The inflation is the theft. Not the savings rate. Sorry if that wasn't clear. The government and/or the central bank typing numbers into an "account" is the theft. Money is magicked out of thin air and given to their friends. I have to work for my money, or risk it in investments, or watch it waste away through inflation. Just they can create it with virtually zero effort.
I'll ask a counter question: If we have to work for or take risk for our wealth, and "other" parties can just create money out of thin air with no work and call it "inflation"... how is it not theft? We work, they don't have to, and they get to spend the money before its value drops... Sure looks like theft to me.
Just because "That's how it's always worked" (which isn't true by the way, we were on a gold standard, for a while) doesn't make it right. The Earth was always flat. Man has never flown. Owning slaves was totally okay. I'm sure there were naysayers during all of these change events saying just what you did: "that's just how it is".
They'll have no choice on the matter. They either accept it, or they will fight it and lose. They will try to regulate it, as they are doing now, they will have limited success. China has repeatedly "banned" bitcoin, yet here it is. At most they will fight the on and off ramps to the technology and the fiat system. If I send £5 of bitcoin to you, nobody can stop it. Nobody. If they fight it, we'll just route around the damage. No difference to the reaction to the printing press. The reaction from the state seems absurd to us today.
Heard all of this before...
I'm talking about Bitcoin, not "Blockchain". That's the distinction between cars and tyres right there: I'm talking about the car, you're talking about the tyres. If it's not Bitcoin, it's not worth considering. If you think it is, I have some RibsCoins to sell you, as it will have a blockchain once I create one for it!
It's still small. It's still very early days. The pressure is on the upside right now. It might be on the downside tomorrow. That will change in time.
The only people that lose money are the ones who do stupid things. Doing basic research and exercising common sense will protect you.
For now, yes. But what if the US$ inflates so much the value drops significantly? Oh wait, didn't the US just create 20% extra dollars from nowhere this year? That story feels familiar... The £ used to be the reserve currency of the world. Not so much now. Will the next one be bitcoin? Maybe, maybe not. Thank you for engaging and being civil. But I'm going to stop replying at this point: This forum probably isn't the place and I'm confident this thread isn't the place either, and frankly, I don't have the time or patience in the longer term to keep replying like this to points I've seen literally hundreds of times before. Everything you've said, everything, I've seen before. I'm not saying Bitcoin is perfect (far from it), but it's an amazing "opt out" of the utterly disguising theft and corruption we are seeing at a massive scale. I struggle to see how people are okay with this if they are not ignorant to the truth, but maybe, as you say, "it's always been like that". If you want to learn more: If you don't care, then that's fine. I'm not here to force anyone to think anything.
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 10, 2020 10:11:23 GMT
Isn't bit coin just creating something out of computer power (mining) sooner or later someone is going build a big enough computer (cheaply) or highjack enough computers to flood the market with bitcoin, just like QE. No. This is completely wrong.
The network adjusts to force blocks to be found roughly every 10 minutes. A block then has the "new bitcoin" reward within it.
If more computing power comes online, it becomes harder to find blocks.
This adjustment happens every 2016 blocks, which is roughly every two weeks. At most you could hold off mining until the next adjustment, add a lot of computing power and blast through those 2016 blocks, but then the network will compensate for your extra computing power and we're back to 10 minutes per block again.
And when I say "a lot", I really mean a huge amount of extra computing power. Entire warehouses of specialised computing power is working on this task. It's not like scouring eBay for as many laptops as possible. It's going to be exceedingly difficult to pull this off.
In addition to that, every 210,000, roughly every 4 years, the reward for finding the block using this computing power is halved. It started at 50, then 25, then 12.5 and now it's 6.25. Roughly 21,000,000 bitcoin will ever be mined, when the block rewards goes to zero in 2140.
It's almost like smart people have put thought into this. I invite you, next time you type "Isn't bitcoin just..." that you ask the question: "Has someone else already asked this?". The answer is always yes and a quick bit of research will show how it's been dealt with. And people who are way smarter than me have already figured this kind of stuff out. It's confusing at first, but once you get the basics down, it's actually easier to wrap your head around then the "traditional" finance system.
Appreciate that in following posts you say you don't want to get involved in a debate (and seeing some of the slanging matches on MSE forum i get that) and that if you look hard enough the answer is out there But maybe somebody else can answer this - if we accept people are making money as supply and demand is pushing the price up at the moment due to scarcity whether real or self promoted and as claimed in the post the number if coins is set to end in 2140 with a certain number how will that function in 2140. Yes i think we all accept Govt's are printing money at the moment but if the opposite is true of bitcoin in 2140 and there's not enough to go round will i not not be paying an inflated price for that pint of milk? how can the price ever settle if the amount is fixed surely people might get hit harder and quicker then they would by inflation Mention was made of savings accounts paying 0.5% but if the price of BC does not settle (i might be assuming wrong) how could you invest even if they were paying 5% as surely the bank and you would not know the value of the coins in the future?
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 10, 2020 10:16:42 GMT
It's a real shame P2P is dying. I really loved the ethos. I think its time may come again, but it'll be a couple of years yet. And this is the beginning of the bull run for bitcoin: fixed supply, no government control, how could it not be? I'm absolutely expecting $100k bitcoin in the next two years. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure.
With the US creating 20% of all the dollars that have ever existed out of thin air this year as a reaction to Covid-19. Some of it went to the public in "stimulus" cheques, most of it went to their friends in high places who are now wealthier than ever before.
20%. Of everything. Every person who lives and died and worked saved and spent, every public programme, every war, every single second of work. Ever, in the history of the US. Just by someone typing numbers into a computer. No real work, no real value of wealth; just a few seconds of typing. Let that sink in for a minute.
Bitcoin/Gold/Silver will be seen as a safe haven from this disgusting and absurd theft.
And this concludes today's rant.
A few things I don't understand with the points made. 1) Re: bitcoin's fixed supply driving up the price, why would this make it inherently valuable? There is an incredibly limited supply of my earwax available for purchase, yet few takers at any price. 2) You say "Then they lie to us and say inflation is 0.7% and I can't get get anything above 0.5% on my savings without taking risk. They are stealing from all of us" Why is a below inflation return theft? If it is theft, does that make an above inflation rate return charity? And when bitcoin/gold/silver fall by 10% in a year, is that theft too? If not, why not? 3) Ref: Governments creating money, yes that's how it has always worked. You say "No real work, no real value of wealth" re: increasing money supply, but what work have you done in holding your bitcoin and watching it double in value? 4) Yes, the World is a corrupt place full of politicians/kings/powerful people with their snouts in the trough. Do you think these people are going to allow Bitcoin into the mainstream regulatory system? Or that bitcoin can somehow break out of it by itself, despite not even having achieved being accepted at Tesco so far? 5) What otherwise is the fundamental possible future value of Bitcoin beyond an increasingly number of people believing it's worth something just 'because'? - Blockchain has some value, but blockchain does not equal Bitcoin - As a currency, it's useless - it fluctuates in value by double digit % amounts in day, it's difficult to acquire, store and dispense. Not great for daily life. - It's easily and frequently stolen. - It does have some limited use in places where the monetary system has fallen / is falling apart (e.g. Venezuela/Turkey), but the US$ is probably a better alternative in those places. Don't get me wrong, I agree its price could well continue to soar and I could even stretch to agreeing that crypto might be worth holding in order to make more real money. But as per rogedavi s comments, in my view too that's simply because enough people believe it has value and are willing to pay the price. I am worried by point 1. - there are a FEW takers for your ear wax! home made xmas candle anyone?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 10, 2020 11:07:54 GMT
There are a few other things I don't understand about bitcoin, one is the security, I am told it is really secure, but what is to prevent hacking and stealing bitcoin? What is to stop someone duplicating bitcoins? I read somewhere that the miners police this so what's to stop the miners doubling their money by duplication? I know it's all catalogued and trackable in some way by extremely smart computer programs (run by whom?), until it isn't.
Someone would have to explain it all in words I actually understand, I know cleverer people than me understand it all and it'll be fine.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 10, 2020 11:31:27 GMT
Ok, appreciate you probably don't want to rehearse endlessly repeated debates. Nonetheless, my thoughts, FWIW. I'll divert away from adding text into the block as I think it'll become rather unwieldy. 1) Ok, I misunderstood your point about inflation. Inflation as theft is an interesting idea. I'm going to look into it more, as to be honest I don't have a fully formed view. To have a go at answering your counter question nonetheless. I feel that inflation is not theft because that presupposes that cash has some sort of divine right to hold its value. Cash is just one type of asset. When I earn some money, I can keep it under the mattress, or I could invest it in stocks, or in property perhaps. The latter two have the potential to earn a productive return. Companies pay me dividends, tenants pay me rent, whilst my cash pays me nothing. Of course it's not going to perform as well as those assets in the long run because it's unproductive. So it seems to me the expecting cash to retain it's full value in the long term is an unrealistic expectation. As an aside, Bitcoin avoids this issue because (IMV) it's not serving currently as a useful medium of exchange. It's behaving very much like a speculative investment. Given that, it has the potential to maintain it's value, where cash does not. 2) Fair point re: gold standard, and ok fair cop that "that's how it is" was a poor argument of mine. You didn't however address my point as to why it's ok for you to profit hugely from Bitcoin appreciation with no effort - ? 3) Re: money creation, I assume that if you prefer us not to have Governments creating/regulating money, then you feel Bitcoin (or possibly other cryptos?) is a better alternative? Interesting recent opinion article on this from the FT (in support of Bitcoin would you believe!). Well, I suppose I don't think it's impossible. We are ripe for systemic change. Ray Dalio has been writing around this recently ref: the changing world order. He was more focused on the rise of China than crypto, but the point remains. 4) What you say re: Governments fighting a losing battle is really interesting. I agree that there's little they can do to stop cryptos being exchanged, but that's not one and the same as them replacing 'normal' cash. I do think that is possible, one day. One of the problems at the moment is that Bitcoin and other currencies are currently acting like hugely speculative investments. I think the real challenge that BTC and others have is that that needs to stop for it be useful. You must surely (?) admit, you can't have a currency that everyone uses to buy products and services that is as hugely volatile as BTC currently is? It doesn't matter if it comes back down tomorrow, as you suggest. It's hugely damaging for people if their currency is swinging about like a flag in a storm for obvious reasons. Assuming you agree, how does it stabilise with it's much coveted limited supply? and would it stabilise at 0% inflation somehow? Surely that would be impossible for the same reason cash can't i.e. that other assets are fundamentally more productive. You can live in or rent out property, but you can't do anything with a bitcoin. 5) Re: safety, I've read a few articles and I think I just have to disagree with you there. I'm no luddite and yet it seems quite complex to store them safely. I can't begin to imagine the older generation doing so currently. To be fair though, I'm sure that can be overcome in the long run. 6) Re: your last comments, well that sounds like as bad an argument as mine above. Just because you've heard it before, it doesn't mean it might not be true. I shall endeavour to set aside time to read your links as I am interested. Finally, to end where you began : " And this is the beginning of the bull run for bitcoin: fixed supply, no government control, how could it not be? I'm absolutely expecting $100k bitcoin in the next two years."
At the risk of repeating myself, you might well be right. It's why I don't dismiss it as much as I used to as an investment. But that's also precisely why bitcoin is currently a terrible alternative as a currency. I certainly agree it's going to very interesting to watch!
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 10, 2020 11:47:08 GMT
There are a few other things I don't understand about bitcoin, one is the security, I am told it is really secure, but what is to prevent hacking and stealing bitcoin? What is to stop someone duplicating bitcoins? I read somewhere that the miners police this so what's to stop the miners doubling their money by duplication? I know it's all catalogued and trackable in some way by extremely smart computer programs (run by whom?), until it isn't. Someone would have to explain it all in words I actually understand, I know cleverer people than me understand it all and it'll be fine. You highlight a current immediate issue with crypto. Whatever the enthusiasts say, it is not currently easily comprehensible and requires research. Money and the storage thereof should not need to be extensively researched to be dealt with. There are many people out there who can barely get it together to remember their PIN for the money in the hole in the wall, it's currently far too far a leap for them to understand this world. The endless tales of dodgy exchanges and other thefts are also a current problem, arguably a teething one. It's also not ideal that there are lots of rival coins floating about, each claiming their own USP. Build a pile of Bitcoin, then it's value can be decimated if the World one day prefers Ribscoin or my WaxCoin. Going to stop blahing about crypto now. Again though, I'm not dismissing the long term potential, I don't see why these problems can't be overcome eventually. They are problems though.
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