Performance report for 2020 (and quarterly updates in 2021)
Dec 31, 2020 16:41:39 GMT
blender, jonno, and 25 more like this
Post by Ace on Dec 31, 2020 16:41:39 GMT
It's that time of year again (actually I'm a day early but I had some free time as my usual daily pleasures are barred due to tier 3 covid status).
Is been another good year in P2P for me despite several headwinds. I've achieved an overall capital weighted average XIRR of 6.44%. This figure is likely very understated as I've almost doubled my P2P portfolio during the year mainly due to an inheritance. So, there are many new loans that won't pay any returns until maturity.
This average XIRR would be closer to 7.5% if I were to include cashbacks and referral bonuses (still excluding accruals).
Losses have been low relative to profits. I'm expecting further losses from Lendy, Welendus, Moneything, British Pearl and a single loan on CrowdStacker. Though even if they were all total losses of remaining capital, it would represent less than 2% of my P2P portfolio, and I would be very surprised if it was as much as half of this.
All accounts have been running for between 2 and 3 years except where stated.
All XIRRs are without referral bonuses and cashbacks unless stated. They also exclude accrued interest unless stated otherwise. Note also that they are measured from account opening, not just single year figures. E.g. the latest value for my ABLrate IFISA of 11.29% indicates that I've received that rate per year for the 3 years since the account was opened, giving a total 37.84% profit, I.e. (((1.1129 ^ 3) - 1) * 100).
I've included the XIRRs to the end of previous years to see how the accounts have progressed over time. Some will naturally start low then steadily increase, especially those that charge upfront fees and/or pay returns as bullet payments when loans complete. Others might do the opposite as their risky (or malfeasant) strategies come home to roost.
My strategy for the last year was (with how it went in blue):
Move as much as possible from non-ISAs to ISAs. (Yes, as much as rules allow)
Put this year's ISA allowance in a cash ISA then split it into multiple IFISAs in the new tax year. (Yes)
Keep a single platform limit of 20% of p2p portfolio. (Almost. Loanpad is currently 21.25% of portfolio.)
Liquidate underperforming platforms and non ISA wrapped investments as and when cash is required. (Lendy, Zopa, RS and FC will probably be the first to go). (On going, L, Z, RS & FC now total less than 0.1% of portfolio.)
Maintain a large float in lower rate, easier access, platforms (mainly LP and GS, but also LI, LW and Z to a lesser extent) and use to fund higher rate loans as ones I like become available. In future I should be able to reduce the need for easy access accounts as I build up a larger number of higher paying loans with several maturing each month (I'll also maintain at least a year's living expenses in FSCS protected accounts). (Yes, but LP did all the heavy lifting here)
Maintain a number of rolling withdraw requests in Loanpad. Consider doing the same with AC access accounts if their manual rates continue to fall. (Yes, for LP which worked well. Complete failure on this front for AC as their Access Accounts became severely constipated.)
Take advantage of cashback offers, but don't be blinded by them. (Was mildly blinded by Qardus.)
Try not to be tempted by new platforms (I have too many already, but a few are in wind-down). (Failed, I have 5 new platforms. However I have fully exited 3 accounts and reduced 6 platforms to less than 0.1% of portfolio each. Only 17 platforms have > 1% of portfolio each.)
Reinvest maturing loans if cash is not needed. (Yes)
Keep reading P2PIF and exit platforms earlier rather than later if it looks like they're in trouble (I could and should have exited FC and FO earlier). (ongoing)
My strategy for 2021:
Keep going with last year's strategy.
Raise my capital weighted average XIRR from this years 6.44%.
Arrange for at least 4 loans totalling at least £5k of maturing funds per calendar month for at least 12 months ahead.
Good luck in 2021 everyone.
Is been another good year in P2P for me despite several headwinds. I've achieved an overall capital weighted average XIRR of 6.44%. This figure is likely very understated as I've almost doubled my P2P portfolio during the year mainly due to an inheritance. So, there are many new loans that won't pay any returns until maturity.
This average XIRR would be closer to 7.5% if I were to include cashbacks and referral bonuses (still excluding accruals).
Losses have been low relative to profits. I'm expecting further losses from Lendy, Welendus, Moneything, British Pearl and a single loan on CrowdStacker. Though even if they were all total losses of remaining capital, it would represent less than 2% of my P2P portfolio, and I would be very surprised if it was as much as half of this.
All accounts have been running for between 2 and 3 years except where stated.
All XIRRs are without referral bonuses and cashbacks unless stated. They also exclude accrued interest unless stated otherwise. Note also that they are measured from account opening, not just single year figures. E.g. the latest value for my ABLrate IFISA of 11.29% indicates that I've received that rate per year for the 3 years since the account was opened, giving a total 37.84% profit, I.e. (((1.1129 ^ 3) - 1) * 100).
I've included the XIRRs to the end of previous years to see how the accounts have progressed over time. Some will naturally start low then steadily increase, especially those that charge upfront fees and/or pay returns as bullet payments when loans complete. Others might do the opposite as their risky (or malfeasant) strategies come home to roost.
| Platform | Account | XIRR to end 2018 | XIRR to end 2019 | XIRR to end 2020 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABLrate | IFISA | 11.24% | 13.00% | 11.29% | One of my favourite platforms. No other platform is as imaginative and dogged at handling problem loans. XIRR dropped due to losses on the brewery loan and some covid forbearance. It has a very good secondary market. Main drawbacks are still too few unrelated loans, and a major distraction with ASMX. |
| ABLrate | Standard | 13.38% | New in Jan 2020. | ||
| Assetz Capital | Standard | 8.30% | 8.95% | 11.25% | I still like this platform. They made some stupid mistakes through Covid, but the loan book seems to be holding up. I'm generally withdrawing due to lack of new loans for retail customers as they concentrate on CBILS. XIRR is high due to some lucky SM trading during Covid. |
| Assetz Capital | IFISA | 8.75% | 9.31% | 9.73% | MLA only. Withdrawing, see above. |
| Assetz Exchange | 4.08% | 2.90% | New in Sep 2019. New website is an improvement. XIRR is 7.5% including cashback. I'm maintaining for now to see how if goes. | ||
| AxiaFunder | Standard | 0% | 4.25% | New in Jan 2019. A couple of small cases completed with large gains. Loan flow is a major issue. | |
| AxiaFunder | IFISA | 0% | -7.55% | New in Jan 2019. They no longer offer IFISA deals. Negative XIRR due to paying a fee for a deal via the SM. No case completions yet. | |
| Brickowner | -4.82% | -0.51% | -0.19% | Still not yet in profit as my investments only pay at maturity and none have matured yet. | |
| British Pearl | 0.07% | -15.95% | New in May 2019. They've taken a rash decision to sell all properties at a loss due to Covid!!! I'm surprised there hasn't been a bigger uproar. | ||
| CapitalRise | IFISA | 4.25% | New in Feb 2019. Becoming another favourite. XIRR is understated as loans pay interest at maturity, would be 9.1% including accrued interest. | ||
| CapitalRise | Standard | 0% | New in Jan 2020. XIRR is understated as loans pay interest at maturity would be 9.8% including accrued interest. | ||
| CrowdProperty | IFISA | 0.96% | 3.76% | New in Jan 2019, but already one of my favourites. Seems to have exceptionally good DD. Most loans pay interest at maturity, so XIRR is understated. | |
| CrowdProperty | Standard | 0.52% | New in Sep 2020. Most loans pay interest at maturity, so XIRR is very understated since none of my loans have matured yet. | ||
| Crowdstacker | 6.89% | 4.99% | 5.74% | Reduced XIRR due to exposure to the A*th*nt*c Al*h**s* loan default. | |
| Elfin Market | 9.23% | New in Feb 2020. Very small toe in water. | |||
| Funding Circle | Balanced | 4.82 | 0.39% | 0.75% | The incompetence of this platform is well documented elsewhere. I'm trying to pull out. Only unsellable loans left for me. |
| Funding Circle | Balanced IFISA | 6.64% | 3.18% | 2.43% | See above. |
| Growth Street | Standard | 5.14% | 4.83% | 3.39% | In wind-down. |
| Growth Street | IFISA | 5.29% | 6.15% | Opened in July 2019. In wind-down. All funds returned. | |
| Grupeer | € | 13.45% | 13.69% | 7.42% | I'm trying to exit my euro platforms. This platform has completely stalled since May 2020. No payments or account updates of any kind since then. |
| HNW Lending | Standard | 0% | New in Dec 2020, so no monthly payments yet. | ||
| Kuflink | Self select | 6.12% | 6.37% | 3.67% | I would have invested more in Kuflink if they had kept their original 20% first loss skin. Without that, rates don't really compete with CrowdProperty, but I'm still adding a bit for diversification. I steer well clear of any 2nd tier and higher loans as the rates are far too low on these. XIRR has reduced as I've switched many loans to repay at maturity rather than monthly to compound returns, and not many loans have matured. |
| Landlord Invest | IFISA | 8.98% | 9.82% | New in Feb 2019. | |
| Landlord Invest | Standard | 1.11% | New in Nov 2020. | ||
| Lending Works | Classic Growth | 5.45% | 6.08% | I withdrew all funds in Dec 2019 (see below). Final XIRR was 6.08 (lucky escape). | |
| Lending Works | IFISA Growth | 4.79% | 5.28% | 4.66% | I greatly reduced my exposure to this platform in Dec 2019 as I was annoyed/concerned that they took too long to react to the rapidly shrinking PF issue. I stupidly left some funds in my IFISA, which are now trapped. XIRR is shrinking due to "negative interest". |
| LoanPad | 4.95% | 5.87% | New in Sep 2019. Another favourite. Now roughly 10% in Classic and 90% in Premium. My return is high due to referral interest rate boosts. | ||
| Lendy | 13.49% | 6.72% | 4.4% | I only have a small investment trapped in administration here thanks to the warnings on the forums. I expect to make a large percentage loss, but a very small loss in absolute cash terms. | |
| Mintos | € | 18.56 | 15.65% | 14.91% | Good return, but it is inflated by early cashback offers that are too complex to remove from XIRR. Now running down as they don't accept new investments from UK investors. Only a very small amount in recovery left. |
| Mintos | £ | 14.95 | 12.10% | 11.76% | Also inflated by cashback. I'm completely out since Sep 2020. |
| MoneyThing | Standard | 11.01% | 9.13% | 8.15% | This platform is now in an administration. I'm expecting losses. |
| MoneyThing | IFISA | 10.49% | 9.78% | New in May 2019. In administration. | |
| OnStep | IFISA | 2.97% | New in Feb 2020. An Unbolted cousin. I like the concept. Most profit expected at end of loan through property equity, so initial XIRR will be low. | ||
| Property Partner | -0.25% | 13.05% | 5.99% | I'm passively withdrawing from this platform as the fees are too high for small investors. | |
| Proplend | Classic | 6.14% | 6.30% | 6.25% | Another favourite. Mostly tranche A loans in this account. |
| Proplend | IFISA | 10.42% | 11.54% | New in Apr 2019. (see above). Mostly B and C tranches in this account. | |
| Qardus | 5.07% | New in Oct 2020. XIRR would be over 12% including accrued interest. | |||
| Rate Setter | mostly 5 yr | 4.09% | 4.60% | 4.46% | Never been keen on this platform. Was always too much hassle for too little return. Nearly out now. Glad to escape without a capital haircut. |
| Robocash | € | 8.36% | 10.99% | 12.00% | I'm withdrawing from my euro platforms. Can't complain about the returns as long as I manage to escape. |
| SoMo | 0% | New in Dec 2020, so no monthly payments yet. | |||
| Unbolted | Standard | 8.42% | 8.14% | 8.76% | Another favourite. A consistent performer with stable returns. I like it for diversification into pawn loans. Difficult to get funds deployed. |
| Unbolted | IFISA | 8.31% | 8.83% | New in Mar 2019 (see above). | |
| Uown | 5.21% | 5.07% | 6.18% | Potential for higher returns at end of investments. I like Uown, but I seem to be in the minority, so too few investments that take forever to fill. | |
| Welendus/Fund Ourselves | Investment | 11.16% | 11.29% | 9.43% | I've lost all faith in this platform. I've been trying to withdraw for ages, but it's proving impossible to get my cash out. No payments of any kind for a year. Expecting losses. |
| Welendus/Fund Ourselves | IFISA | 3.52% | 7.42% | 4.45% | See above. |
| Zopa | Plus | 5.87% | 5.15% | 3.05% | Feels like the risk v reward balance is too heavily weighted on the risk side. I'm withdrawing. Nearly out. |
My strategy for the last year was (with how it went in blue):
Move as much as possible from non-ISAs to ISAs. (Yes, as much as rules allow)
Put this year's ISA allowance in a cash ISA then split it into multiple IFISAs in the new tax year. (Yes)
Keep a single platform limit of 20% of p2p portfolio. (Almost. Loanpad is currently 21.25% of portfolio.)
Liquidate underperforming platforms and non ISA wrapped investments as and when cash is required. (Lendy, Zopa, RS and FC will probably be the first to go). (On going, L, Z, RS & FC now total less than 0.1% of portfolio.)
Maintain a large float in lower rate, easier access, platforms (mainly LP and GS, but also LI, LW and Z to a lesser extent) and use to fund higher rate loans as ones I like become available. In future I should be able to reduce the need for easy access accounts as I build up a larger number of higher paying loans with several maturing each month (I'll also maintain at least a year's living expenses in FSCS protected accounts). (Yes, but LP did all the heavy lifting here)
Maintain a number of rolling withdraw requests in Loanpad. Consider doing the same with AC access accounts if their manual rates continue to fall. (Yes, for LP which worked well. Complete failure on this front for AC as their Access Accounts became severely constipated.)
Take advantage of cashback offers, but don't be blinded by them. (Was mildly blinded by Qardus.)
Try not to be tempted by new platforms (I have too many already, but a few are in wind-down). (Failed, I have 5 new platforms. However I have fully exited 3 accounts and reduced 6 platforms to less than 0.1% of portfolio each. Only 17 platforms have > 1% of portfolio each.)
Reinvest maturing loans if cash is not needed. (Yes)
Keep reading P2PIF and exit platforms earlier rather than later if it looks like they're in trouble (I could and should have exited FC and FO earlier). (ongoing)
My strategy for 2021:
Keep going with last year's strategy.
Raise my capital weighted average XIRR from this years 6.44%.
Arrange for at least 4 loans totalling at least £5k of maturing funds per calendar month for at least 12 months ahead.
Good luck in 2021 everyone.
