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Post by overthehill on Aug 11, 2023 17:01:09 GMT
Does anyone think lenders are going to see a single £1 of their money back, forget interest, from any of AF's loans. The sheer dishonesty and audacity of AF's final loan was always the writing on the wall for me which is why I bailed out of every other loan on the platform at the time. The blurry image of a ponzi scheme has been getting clearer every quarter. What security assets doing ? How are the horses doing ?
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Post by Ace on Aug 11, 2023 17:17:59 GMT
There's a queue, were at the back. AF needs a tissue. Looks like you forgot the bit about ablrate working really, really, really hard behind the scenes........... Tissues all round I think. Looks like I'm going to need the tissue myself.
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Post by marcusponds on Aug 11, 2023 17:19:58 GMT
Anyone else failing to get into the ABL website due to timeout?
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mickj
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Post by mickj on Aug 11, 2023 17:43:12 GMT
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dh1
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Post by dh1 on Aug 11, 2023 18:27:44 GMT
Well, I've read the document - had to, really as I received 9 separate notifications about it.
My take is that the situation is more precarious than it has been previously due to the CVA'a and other concerning references - eg to bankruptcy.
What I cannot tell from the document - or the very helpful contributions from forum members - is exactly how viable these various complicated plans actually are. In particular, there are mentions of additional funding requirements in the £ millions to bring various strands to fruition, let alone pay us back.
There also isn't an objective assessment of the asset sale plans that I can detect; is there a market (for example)? There is also mention of a lack of warranty for what are probably critical components at Sea... (top of page 2 of the document). Wouldn't that put off buyers?
Whilst this isn't comfortable to say, my own view of the risk to my money has significantly changed with this update; I think the probability of eventual, meaningful, capital return on the AF loans is now low, having shifted down from medium.
Someone please disagree with me!
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Post by overthehill on Aug 12, 2023 16:41:56 GMT
Does anyone think lenders are going to see a single £1 of their money back, forget interest, from any of AF's loans. The sheer dishonesty and audacity of AF's final loan was always the writing on the wall for me which is why I bailed out of every other loan on the platform at the time. The blurry image of a ponzi scheme has been getting clearer every quarter. What security assets doing ? How are the horses doing ?
Put your hand up if you're still going to be in the black when AF's loans all evaporate into thin air. Surely the last final penny dropping crowning clincher for P2P investors to never invest in multiple loans to the same borrower.
This has been the only instance where I didn't learn my lesson from Fundingsecure (of course with them no one knew the loans were for the same existing borrowers, nothing to see there for the FCA !)
I only invested £200 in each loan but I have about 12 unique loans which have turned out to be effectively one huge loan.
Ablrate is on track to have a higher net loss then Fundingsecure for me.
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Post by Ace on Aug 12, 2023 17:24:53 GMT
Does anyone think lenders are going to see a single £1 of their money back, forget interest, from any of AF's loans. The sheer dishonesty and audacity of AF's final loan was always the writing on the wall for me which is why I bailed out of every other loan on the platform at the time. The blurry image of a ponzi scheme has been getting clearer every quarter. What security assets doing ? How are the horses doing ?
Put your hand up if you're still going to be in the black when AF's loans all evaporate into thin air. Surely the last final penny dropping crowning clincher for P2P investors to never invest in multiple loans to the same borrower.
This has been the only instance where I didn't learn my lesson from Fundingsecure (of course with them no one knew the loans were for the same existing borrowers, nothing to see there for the FCA !)
I only invested £200 in each loan but I have about 12 unique loans which have turned out to be effectively one huge loan.
Ablrate is on track to have a higher net loss then Fundingsecure for me. I wish I could put my hand up, but sadly not. My outstanding capital in all of the loans that received the AF CVA update yesterday is a little more than my current ABLrate net profit. So, if they all get written off I'll be underwater. I've just realised that a couple of groups of loans directly related to AF weren't included, I.e. the WEL loans and the APF loans. Can anyone explain why? I'm guessing that maybe it's because "we" haven't given the security away on these loans! If I add these to my likely losses, then add in the other loans that are looking extremely unlikely to repay it totals something like 3 times my current ABLrate net profit.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 12, 2023 18:49:12 GMT
Put your hand up if you're still going to be in the black when AF's loans all evaporate into thin air. Surely the last final penny dropping crowning clincher for P2P investors to never invest in multiple loans to the same borrower.
This has been the only instance where I didn't learn my lesson from Fundingsecure (of course with them no one knew the loans were for the same existing borrowers, nothing to see there for the FCA !)
I only invested £200 in each loan but I have about 12 unique loans which have turned out to be effectively one huge loan.
Ablrate is on track to have a higher net loss then Fundingsecure for me. I wish I could put my hand up, but sadly not. My outstanding capital in all of the loans that received the AF CVA update yesterday is a little more than my current ABLrate net profit. So, if they all get written off I'll be underwater. I've just realised that a couple of groups of loans directly related to AF weren't included, I.e. the WEL loans and the APF loans. Can anyone explain why? I'm guessing that maybe it's because "we" haven't given the security away on these loans! If I add these to my likely losses, then add in the other loans that are looking extremely unlikely to repay it totals something like 3 times my current ABLrate net profit. I was fortunate to have sold all the AF loans in 2020 after the pandemic started - often at a huge discount, and all the discounts took my XIRR down to 9.1% from over 12% - but in retrospect that was a very prescient move. Two largish loans remain (aircraft and valves) but even if they go to zero I will fortunately retain a 6-7% XIRR.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Sept 19, 2023 12:57:03 GMT
L******g W*******g R****t Ltd has a new Director Effective from 1 April 2023, filed at Companies House 18 Sep 2023 This company owns (or did in its last filed accounts i.e. 30 Apr 2021 own) the land that forms the backbone of the security for the monies lent to AF's Scottish Land Development project. Land valued then at £9 million. The new Director is the same Mr Gourlay that was appointed as Director of W*******g R*****s Ltd on 1 April 2023, filed at Companies House 23 Aug 2023. Think about why two Directorship changes involving the same people that happened on the same day were filed almost one month apart... As the previous Director, Pickthall resigned on 28 April 2023 (also filed at Companies House 18 Sep 2023), Gourlay is now the sole Director. As mentioned previously, Mr Gourlay is also the Director of Th**d P***e I**s Ltd - the company that is said to have bought the pubs that were the security for loans 97, 104 & 105 Hasn't he been a busy chap? Did I miss the update from DBW on this? In fairness the deckchairs did need to be rearranged onto the starboard side so we can get a better look at that white thing in the distance. Must have a stern word with Dave next time he is in port about the update. Although I suspect he will say it was covered in the one where he said strange movement may occur.......
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optimist
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Post by optimist on Sept 29, 2023 13:08:52 GMT
Old news for Seamer but "Actual monthly income is approximately £15,000-20,000, which has been ringfenced to pay the IVA and staff wages" was mentioned in the August update
I was thinking, once the IVA is in place what funding does that need? Why do they need this level of staffing for what amounts to a large battery? Presumably maintenance is minimal.
I wonder whether there's some form of oversight possible as the numbers don't seem to add up, or am I missing something?
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optimist
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Post by optimist on Sept 30, 2023 14:58:03 GMT
Old news for Seamer but "Actual monthly income is approximately £15,000-20,000, which has been ringfenced to pay the IVA and staff wages" was mentioned in the August update
I was thinking, once the IVA is in place what funding does that need? Why do they need this level of staffing for what amounts to a large battery? Presumably maintenance is minimal.
I wonder whether there's some form of oversight possible as the numbers don't seem to add up, or am I missing something?
Fair questions Without sight of the IVA, lenders are left to trust that DBW struck the best possible deal for lenders. Generally speaking, the IVA Supervisor charges 15% of realisations + expenses. The IVA will include some element of repayment to creditors. Maybe the staff are working on bringing other sites forwards for the ultimate benefit of creditors? The Insolvency Practitioner named on the IVA is the IVA Supervisor. It is their responsibility to ensure that the terms of the IVA are adhered to, to communicate with creditors, to collect & distribute the money accordingly etc. Here is a bit more about the process www.thegazette.co.uk/all-notices/content/103983There seem to be a few conflicts of interest, though I'm not convinced that DBW and AF are doing anything worse than trying to innovate their way out of a sticky situation, it is after all what they do, and why we invested in them both.
With one IVA and pooled wages, selling Seamer results in the loss of the wages used to develop the rest of the businesses. In an ideal world an early sale would seem to be shooting themselves in the foot
A sceptic may wonder how motivated the staff are to sell a significant source of their income. The IVA repayment plan seems to be based on these sales so hopefully this is cast in stone
There’s also a question as to the motivation to buy at the highest possible price, prior to electricity prices falling and the sale price (presumably based on market valuation, in turn based on instability of supply) reducing. What else is making money at the moment? Doncaster is paying off the Nash loan. Getting other things to shovel ready is a year away. The rest is potential, though Russia seems to be about the only thing on our side as power instability could be long term Hopefully the IVA admin is fully aware of the challenges and up to the task of protecting their % of the sale price.
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optimist
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Post by optimist on Oct 14, 2023 13:32:59 GMT
Not sure if there is any significance to this change of corporate control. D***********h P****r Ltd, that ablrate has charges registered against, now - from 8 Sep 2023 - has AF's wife as its PSC. Previously it was a subsidiary of F*******r Ltd (renamed F***L Ltd). Link to the Companies House page in the dd thread This company also has a recently registered charge that now sits alongside ablrate's on the charges register Same charge holder as for the larger Doncaster site... It appears that the charge relates to this paragraph in the August update "... has secured cash flow funding for the first payment of the grid connection agreement which has been issued which greatly adds value to the project." On balance, this looks like progress. Though some might be surprised that it is such a closely connected company that is the lender I'd be surprised if a company that wasn't that closely connected could work out whether to invest. If the inside info is that it's still worth putting money in, that would seem pretty positive, though we don't know how much of a gamble they think they're taking. Legal action seems less positive.
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optimist
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Post by optimist on Oct 29, 2023 11:49:27 GMT
I imagine they have a fairly standardised way of appraising assets and what might be recovered.
This probably wouldn't assume the success of the more inventive horse trading that borrows money from one "business" to pay wages for others.
I wonder whether they believe in jam tomorrow, or only know which side of their bread is buttered.
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Balder
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Post by Balder on Feb 18, 2024 10:50:50 GMT
doesn't this just provide more evidence that these "business" men are highly skilled and running away with the money and had no intention of ever doing anything else?
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dh1
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Post by dh1 on Feb 18, 2024 11:23:40 GMT
As with most of the Ablrate loans - especially the AF ones - there is a whole lot we don't know. The picture isn't helped by the Companies House information being well behind the times - as it has to be to some extent - and reflecting what has happened rather than what is happening. The only real hope of finding out what is actually going on is the Ablrate Administrators report which should expensively turn up shortly.
There is, of course, an outside (really, really outside and well OTH (over the horizon)) chance that borrowers will themselves explain what is going on...
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