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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 15:33:13 GMT
Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2014, war includes invasion, taking of national territory and distruction of MH17. There is no "will" it already exists.
Hence the aggressor is Russia.
Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil. This self same soil that Russia declared to be sovereign Ukrainian soil and agreed to keep it so only a few years before that. Putin is a declared liar and bully and this is just more of the same.
gramsky, sorry but claiming that Nato is the aggressor is just BS and I question your fundamental "honest" position in this thread.
Russia, owns all state media and only tells its people what it wants to do, it recently carried out exercises to disconnect its internet from the western world, and while not perfect it can filter a lot of stuff.
Russia has tried to develop a myth that Ukraine and Russia are like brothers who should live together and the "invasion" of Crimea was in fact liberation of a brother (and access to a military naval base). Young Ukrainians have been brought up with a different the truth. The mass starvation of the people of Ukraine by Stalin before WW2, the deportation of people from Ukraine over many years, the promises of peace and the repression ending in an on going war for the last 8 years, culminating in an internet attack in the last 3 weeks. This truth makes younger Ukrainians not love brother Russia
By keeping the press quiet in Russia, Putin will be able to declare any war in Ukraine as a result of Nato provocation to his people which will help support his waning popularity.
The question will not be will there be a war, but what will the war be.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances indicates that Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, USA and UK support the integrety of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakstan. So far Russia invaded Kazakstan about 4 weeks ago as part of a police action, certainly played a hand in putting down a rebellion in Belarus in 2021. So it will end up being the USA and UK supporting the Ukraine because the other significant player in this is run by a liar.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 24, 2022 15:34:49 GMT
I love peace. ☮️ The only thing I can help is to stop myself engaging in active war. The war in Syria is still on going, many “sides” involved. OIR. 😔 youtu.be/JFpanWNgfQY |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 15:36:30 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 24, 2022 15:39:11 GMT
And even that's not the only one... 
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 15:41:56 GMT
Thought they already did that in 2014?
Difficult to see what the benefit to Putin is, particularly if there is significant loss of Russian lives. However, I can see it getting messy given talk of kicking Russia out of the global banking system and they retaliate by turning off the gas pipelines.
gramsky. facts are different when looked at over the past year
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 15:55:41 GMT
One thing the UK gov does is monitor people's views on a regular basis via a survey. Today's was about war in Ukraine and would we all trust Boris to lead us into one.
What do others think?
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 24, 2022 15:57:51 GMT
yes it was. The point I was making (opinion I was sharing) was that Russia has probably not launched full on attack on Western (as opposed to Eastern european) institutions, with what they have done with Estonia and Ukraine showing what they could have been doing. I don't know whether the cyber attacks on Ukraine and Estonia to date are the limits of their capabilities, but I would doubt it: if I was in their shoes, I'm sure I would have been holding capability back. If you going to launch a physical offensive, you'll want to be leaving your best (cyber) 'till last to create maximum disruption.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 24, 2022 15:59:29 GMT
One thing the UK gov does is monitor people's views on a regular basis via a survey. Today's was about war in Ukraine and would we all trust Boris to lead us into one.
What do others think?
I wouldn't trust Boris to take my dog to the park. If I had a dog.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jan 24, 2022 16:07:00 GMT
To be honest
I'd rather it be Boris than Wee Jimmy ( Sturgeon ), Corbyn, Blair, etc
I think Starmer would be paralysed by his legal background.
At the moment I can't really think of anyone I'd really trust in a war situation.
maybe Mercer or Tugenhadt
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 24, 2022 16:08:21 GMT
Does anyone have any military knowledge? I was wondering what are the costs involved in having such large armies out of barracks? How long could russia sustain it? They'll be costs and disruption involved, but compared to eg staging to go into Iraq the costs Russia is currently bearing are minimal, so... pretty much indefinitely. And also what of this talk of them needing to invade in the next 2 months as "the ground is frozen making it easier for tanks". Why can't they use the roads all year round? Any thoughts on this anyone? Because roads don't necessarily go where you want or need them to, are limited in terms of the volume of traffic they can support, and necessarily constrain your tactical options. They also make good targets. Mud = bad for military vehicles (tracked or wheeled). It slows everything down and causes mechanical breakdowns. Hard packed frozen snow and / or frozen ground = good for military vehicles. Because no mud. Muddy and wet conditions wouldn't prevent Russia from invading, but it would make things slower, riskier and potentially more expensive in lives and materiel. The perfect conditions would be either high summer when the ground is hard and dry, or towards the end of winter when it is hard and frozen. Of course seasons don't necessarily play well with whatever your political or military objectives are...
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 24, 2022 16:15:39 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 24, 2022 16:58:24 GMT
Does anyone have any military knowledge? I was wondering what are the costs involved in having such large armies out of barracks? How long could russia sustain it? And also what of this talk of them needing to invade in the next 2 months as "the ground is frozen making it easier for tanks". Why can't they use the roads all year round? Any thoughts on this anyone? To a certain extent I think it's inevitable. For a start covid regulations dictate that they have to do 10 days quarantine at the border before being allowed into Ukraine.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 24, 2022 17:03:03 GMT
Does anyone have any military knowledge? I was wondering what are the costs involved in having such large armies out of barracks? How long could russia sustain it? And also what of this talk of them needing to invade in the next 2 months as "the ground is frozen making it easier for tanks". Why can't they use the roads all year round? Any thoughts on this anyone? To a certain extent I think it's inevitable. For a start covid regulations dictate that they have to do 10 days quarantine at the border before being allowed into Ukraine. I shouldn't have laughed. But I did  .
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james100
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Post by james100 on Jan 24, 2022 17:14:52 GMT
Yes to war, probably already happening, there are proxy wars all over the shop (Russia v US in Syria for example). I see Erdogan, everyone's favourite NATO member and Putin's best mate, is volunteering to "mediate"...good job Turkey's all stashed up on S-400 missile defense systems and can relax  Glad to read you're getting out for now michaelc ...having been caught up as an expat in military-type conflict before, it's not pleasant. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 17:19:45 GMT
You make a good point about Covid. Covid take-up in Russia in general has not been high ~50% uptake by adults but Putin sees and said that he sees Omicron as a natural solution to Covid. Having 100,000 troops in the field all together at least gets them cleared of Covid, especially after the Russian vaccine that they offered free to the world early-doors, neither got to the world early on as it had major production issues nor seems to have worked very well but evidence seems to suffer from the old Russian problem (honest uncertainty).
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