tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 29, 2022 11:47:01 GMT
I can't help thinking that the threat of war benefits all the major actors far more than an actual war does.
The Russian public loves to see Putin as the strong man, standing up to the nasty bullies in the west. More importantly, the threat of war is doing wonders for the price of oil and natural gas which can only help the Russian economy.
It also provides a great distraction from the economic issues that the west faces. We are going to face real problems recovering from the pandemic and inflation is going to be a big issue over the next few months.
Then this morning the BBC is reporting that Boris has said he is going to visit Eastern Europe in 'the coming days' possibly at the same time as the Sue Grey report is published and meaning he may not be in Parliment for Prime Ministers Questions straight after the report is published is just the cherry on top.
It also distracts the world from what I feel is a far more concerning issue in the Soth China Seas.
I accept that I am probably just being naive and just hoping that the people running the world are actually not daft enough to take us to war but here's hoping.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 29, 2022 11:58:00 GMT
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 29, 2022 12:07:26 GMT
Very good point and I do agree but they also benefit greatly financially from the threat of war in a way that the west dont.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 29, 2022 12:11:40 GMT
Very good point and I do agree but they also benefit greatly financially from the threat of war in a way that the west dont. Putin may benefit personally, financially, but the country really doesn't.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 29, 2022 12:17:11 GMT
Doesn't the incredibly high oil and gas prices give them a serious boost?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 29, 2022 12:43:17 GMT
Doesn't the incredibly high oil and gas prices give them a serious boost? It does, but it may not offset the (other) economic implications of what a war in Ukraine might bring. It's probably also worth remembering that over the last few years the main "swing" producers in oil have been US frackers, so I guess from Russia / OPEC's point of view it might be a wash. Russia also has something like $700b of foreign currency reserves, which would go some way to mitigating the immediate economic fallout (sorry, VERY inappropriate word there!) impact.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 29, 2022 12:53:43 GMT
The West is financially bankrupt, it cannot afford to go to war. If China joined with Russia we would be in trouble. If China was to join Russia, I think the balance of payment deficit would be the least of our worries
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 29, 2022 13:08:36 GMT
I can't help thinking that the threat of war benefits all the major actors far more than an actual war does. The Russian public loves to see Putin as the strong man, standing up to the nasty bullies in the west. More importantly, the threat of war is doing wonders for the price of oil and natural gas which can only help the Russian economy. It also provides a great distraction from the economic issues that the west faces. We are going to face real problems recovering from the pandemic and inflation is going to be a big issue over the next few months. Then this morning the BBC is reporting that Boris has said he is going to visit Eastern Europe in 'the coming days' possibly at the same time as the Sue Grey report is published and meaning he may not be in Parliment for Prime Ministers Questions straight after the report is published is just the cherry on top. It also distracts the world from what I feel is a far more concerning issue in the Soth China Seas. I accept that I am probably just being naive and just hoping that the people running the world are actually not daft enough to take us to war but here's hoping. Yes they do but whilst "regaining" Crimea and "liberating" a pocket on the east might have been neutral/popular among the average russian, invading Ukraine full-scale, would definitely be extremely unpopular* which is why I don't think he'll do it but you never know. * Unless he managed a bloodless coup and put in a russian leaning puppet but it would be very risky as I'm sure he knows.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2022 15:50:13 GMT
Right now the spider has it like he wants it, everyone ringing him.
Such a sordid little man.
Still he has no moustache
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 29, 2022 22:39:29 GMT
Winter Olympics end on the 20th, so that's not a bad shout.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Jan 30, 2022 17:32:40 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 30, 2022 17:43:00 GMT
Is that 900 troops doubled to 1800? I'm sure Putin is terrified.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 30, 2022 18:00:03 GMT
Is that 900 troops doubled to 1800? I'm sure Putin is terrified. But still 900 / 1800 more than Germany is proposing to send?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 30, 2022 18:12:50 GMT
Is that 900 troops doubled to 1800? I'm sure Putin is terrified. But still 900 / 1800 more than Germany is proposing to send? That's because their chancellor can't risk a few million cold and angry Germans.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Jan 30, 2022 18:19:32 GMT
Is that 900 troops doubled to 1800? I'm sure Putin is terrified. But still 900 / 1800 more than Germany is proposing to send? Germany's more than doubling that in helmets though.
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