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Post by captainconfident on Jun 8, 2024 13:12:34 GMT
Of course the nuclear sabre rattling is sabre rattling. If Putin loosed one off, it would be the end if his regime. And staying in power until death is his deepest motivation. You wonder if it would definitely be there he end of him? But he would not take any action that would even bring his future into doubt.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 8, 2024 15:31:46 GMT
Of course the nuclear sabre rattling is sabre rattling. If Putin loosed one off, it would be the end if his regime. And staying in power until death is his deepest motivation. You wonder if it would definitely be there he end of him? But he would not take any action that would even bring his future into doubt. What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next?
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 8, 2024 16:04:40 GMT
Of course the nuclear sabre rattling is sabre rattling. If Putin loosed one off, it would be the end if his regime. And staying in power until death is his deepest motivation. You wonder if it would definitely be there he end of him? But he would not take any action that would even bring his future into doubt. What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment ....Then the writing would be on the wall.... (see what I did there)
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 8, 2024 16:06:02 GMT
Of course the nuclear sabre rattling is sabre rattling. If Putin loosed one off, it would be the end if his regime. And staying in power until death is his deepest motivation. You wonder if it would definitely be there he end of him? But he would not take any action that would even bring his future into doubt. What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next? The UK invokes Article 5.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 8, 2024 16:13:14 GMT
What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next? The UK invokes Article 5. So then there is presumably at least a joint response by NATO. Would it be proportionate or disproportionate? Given past behaviour from the US and Germany in particular, I suspect it would be a proportionate tit for tat on Russia. Any more or at least much more then starts to risk it going nuclear. So my working assumption is there'd be something similar going there way plus a general show of force. Maybe a shed load of airdefence taken out ? That being the case, it might look quite attractive for Moscow to do it no?
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angrysaveruk
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Back and to the left..
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jun 8, 2024 16:45:21 GMT
What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next? The UK invokes Article 5. We might find out Article 5 is a bit like the Treaty of Fort Pitt. Personally I have my doubts if the US would honour it, faced with total destruction I suspect the US would back down. At the end of the day the US has always been about money and materialism, not principles and honour. Playing Russian Roulette with the Russians is probably not the smartest move the US has ever made.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 8, 2024 16:50:55 GMT
So hypothetically there has been a missile strike on on a UK airbase. I imagine after a quick public conference, from Finland to Poland all the border states take out a military object. With the depleted resources of the Russian forces at present, they don’t respond. Massive unconditional aid arrives in Ukraine and Kaliningrad is blockaded. Ukraine uses the new weaponry to occupy Crimea. Putin is replaced as leader. The end for Crimea is probably closer than people think. The recent systematic elimination of air defences there have left the ground forces hard to protect. The bridge has conspicuously been left alone. The next time it blows up will probably be in concert with other moves. And voila, a quick search for conformation brings up General Hodges. He should be worth a listen (it’s long) m.youtube.com/watch?v=34SP5GvCNdkThey discuss Crimea from 11m45 onwards and touch on nuclear weapons a little after.
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k6
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Post by k6 on Jun 9, 2024 6:42:31 GMT
The UK invokes Article 5. We might find out Article 5 is a bit like the Treaty of Fort Pitt. Personally I have my doubts if the US would honour it, faced with total destruction I suspect the US would back down. At the end of the day the US has always been about money and materialism, not principles and honour. Playing Russian Roulette with the Russians is probably not the smartest move the US has ever made. привет, Relentless undermining of the west. Typical for some type of humans. Principle and honor , you saying ? I can assure you russians, especially those fighting the war, committing all atrocities, raping, steeling etc , don't even know meaning of those words let alone spelling it out.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 9, 2024 6:46:10 GMT
The UK invokes Article 5. We might find out Article 5 is a bit like the Treaty of Fort Pitt. Personally I have my doubts if the US would honour it, faced with total destruction I suspect the US would back down. At the end of the day the US has always been about money and materialism, not principles and honour. Playing Russian Roulette with the Russians is probably not the smartest move the US has ever made. If Trump is in power, I think that is quite likely. One of the reasons I worry about a Trump presidency is that the mere fact of it significantly reduces the deterrent effect of NATOs mutual defence obligations. And more broadly the deterrent affect of US and Western nations wrt Taiwan. I also think that Trump's constant undermining of NATO was likely a contributory factor to Putin thinking he could invade Ukraine and the west would turn a blind eye. Years of his rhetoric led to people thinking the US and the West in general would not take any action. The fact that it didn't happen while he was President is not relevant: these things take time to plan. And significant damage to external perceptions had been done in the preceding years.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 9, 2024 9:20:50 GMT
Of course the nuclear sabre rattling is sabre rattling. If Putin loosed one off, it would be the end if his regime. And staying in power until death is his deepest motivation. You wonder if it would definitely be there he end of him? But he would not take any action that would even bring his future into doubt. What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next? Saying 'what if' is meaningless unless you can quantify the likelyhood of the risk materialising. It's a bit like asking 'what if I got stabbed by a complete stranger in the high street' or 'what if a drunken driver runs into me on a dual carriageway'.
What we have seen over the last 2 years is that Putin and his puppets in the media constantly threaten armageddon against the west, which is typicall bully boy tactics. So lets get things into perspective:
- a year ago a few thousand Wagner mercenaries legged it up the road to Moscow, threatening to overthrow the leadership.
- Vladimir 'man of steel' Putin was so confident in the ability of his army that he immediately jumped into a private jet and legged it to a place of safety.
- Wagner made more progress in 1 day against the Russian army than it did in 15 months against the Ukranian army.
If Russia was to try and widen the dispute into Western Europe, they would get flattened in no time at all. They have a small number of effective high tech deadly weapons, but the vast majority of their arsenal is rusty old . Even if they could mass 500,000 trops on the border with Poland (and could find them 500,000 rifles) they would have no support and no leadership. Europe doesn't need USA, they could easily see of Russia by themselves in a conventional war. As for nuclear war, it ain't going to happen (regardless how often the Putin puppets might suggest). Is China going to allow Russia to start world war three? Definately not, look at things from a Chinese perspective:
- Risk of allowing the current war to continue - nil
- Rewards of allowing the current war to continue - unlimites cheap oil and gas from Russia
- Risks of allowing world war three to start - global stock markets tumble, demand for Chinese goods plummet
- Rewards - nil
People just need to wise upto the fact that Putin is full of Bullsh*t, and call his bluff. Bye, bye Kerch bridge.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 9, 2024 9:50:29 GMT
St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024 list of major attendees:-
President Luis Arce of Bolivia President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe Yevgenia Gutsul as Governor of Autonomous Gagauzia (part of Moldova) Milorad Dodik as President of Republic Srpska (part of Bosnia and Herzegovina) Taliban representatives Laureano Ortega (special adviser to the Nicaragua president) Felix Moloua (Prime Minister of the Central African Republic) Karin Kneissel (ex-Minister Foreign Affairs of Austria) Dilma Rousseff (Chief of BRICS New Development Bank) Peter Szijjarto (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary)
What a savory and economically influential bunch.
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Jun 9, 2024 9:56:28 GMT
What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment .... Then the writing would be on the wall.... (see what I did there) You really are the font of all knowledge
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 9, 2024 10:48:00 GMT
St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024 list of major attendees:- President Luis Arce of Bolivia President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe Yevgenia Gutsul as Governor of Autonomous Gagauzia (part of Moldova) Milorad Dodik as President of Republic Srpska (part of Bosnia and Herzegovina) Taliban representatives Laureano Ortega (special adviser to the Nicaragua president) Felix Moloua (Prime Minister of the Central African Republic) Karin Kneissel (ex-Minister Foreign Affairs of Austria) Dilma Rousseff (Chief of BRICS New Development Bank) Peter Szijjarto (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary) What a savory and economically influential bunch. So Hamas and George Galloway didn't get an invite?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 9, 2024 13:22:19 GMT
What if he mounted a large (conventional) arial bombardment of an enemy - lets say the UK? Lets say he knocked out the electrics and gas for a few million people, kills 46 troops and 4 innocents, injures 200 and flattens a few military buildings? What happens next? Saying 'what if' is meaningless unless you can quantify the likelyhood of the risk materialising.
Its the exact opposite. If you can get an idea of what would happen next, that informs the risk of it happening. Putin doesn't nuke us because of what will happen next. Simples!
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 11, 2024 22:18:07 GMT
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