michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 8, 2024 15:01:16 GMT
I doubt Geert Wilders can do a lot to help Ukraine and Zelensky, we are very much reaching the end game of this conflict now. The only people in Europe who can probably help him are either Orban or Fico - they can possibly help open channels with Russia to reach some settlement*. * - Although given recent statements from Putin and the Kremlin I doubt the Russians will be open to negotiations outside of Ukraine surrendering to Russia. The Russians I think will have to negotiate with the US and Ukraine. The war is bad for Ukraine, Russia and the US in that order. I think and hope we are approaching end game. That would benefit Ukraine and all the soldiers on both sides who are dying every day. I suspect Russia will steal the oblasts it has claimed (or at least the parts of them it now controls). The key for me is how to ensure there is no repeat. NATO membership would do it but anything less than full-status would be at risk of unravelling. So if it is the latter, Ukraine would need massive defence lines and some token troops from a good few other countries. Membership of the EU would be a massive, massive deal for the Ukranian people so I hope it is prioritised but doubt it will be..... In the meantime, Trumps odds are shortening every day. Now at 1.88 vs 2.22
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Sept 8, 2024 17:37:59 GMT
I doubt Geert Wilders can do a lot to help Ukraine and Zelensky, we are very much reaching the end game of this conflict now. The only people in Europe who can probably help him are either Orban or Fico - they can possibly help open channels with Russia to reach some settlement*. * - Although given recent statements from Putin and the Kremlin I doubt the Russians will be open to negotiations outside of Ukraine surrendering to Russia. The Russians I think will have to negotiate with the US and Ukraine. The war is bad for Ukraine, Russia and the US in that order. I think and hope we are approaching end game. That would benefit Ukraine and all the soldiers on both sides who are dying every day. I suspect Russia will steal the oblasts it has claimed (or at least the parts of them it now controls). The key for me is how to ensure there is no repeat. NATO membership would do it but anything less than full-status would be at risk of unravelling. So if it is the latter, Ukraine would need massive defence lines and some token troops from a good few other countries. Membership of the EU would be a massive, massive deal for the Ukranian people so I hope it is prioritised but doubt it will be..... In the meantime, Trumps odds are shortening every day. Now at 1.88 vs 2.22 Trump winning will also reduce the odds of us all being turned into radioactive dust in my opinion.
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k6
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Post by k6 on Sept 8, 2024 18:59:09 GMT
The Russians I think will have to negotiate with the US and Ukraine. The war is bad for Ukraine, Russia and the US in that order. I think and hope we are approaching end game. That would benefit Ukraine and all the soldiers on both sides who are dying every day. I suspect Russia will steal the oblasts it has claimed (or at least the parts of them it now controls). The key for me is how to ensure there is no repeat. NATO membership would do it but anything less than full-status would be at risk of unravelling. So if it is the latter, Ukraine would need massive defence lines and some token troops from a good few other countries. Membership of the EU would be a massive, massive deal for the Ukranian people so I hope it is prioritised but doubt it will be..... In the meantime, Trumps odds are shortening every day. Now at 1.88 vs 2.22 Trump winning will also reduce the odds of us all being turned into radioactive dust in my opinion. I hope you understand that your opinion is not being taken seriously across this platform.
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09dolphin
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Post by 09dolphin on Sept 9, 2024 4:28:48 GMT
When you take account of the December 1994 treaty (when amongest other countries Russia assured Ukraines borders in exchange for their loss of nuclear weapons) I don't understand why Ukraine should believe a word Russia says as Russia invaded Ukraine.
If anyone can explain this war it would be most helpful as I believe Russia didn't appear to uphold its treaty obligations.
Can I also say I deplore the lives lost on both sides,
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 9, 2024 9:48:00 GMT
Trump winning will also reduce the odds of us all being turned into radioactive dust in my opinion. I hope you understand that your opinion is not being taken seriously across this platform. Unfortunately, it's an insight into the mindset that still supports the orange muppet.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 9, 2024 11:33:40 GMT
I hope you understand that your opinion is not being taken seriously across this platform. Unfortunately, it's an insight into the mindset that still supports the orange muppet. The vast, vast majority of Americans that support Trump don't do so because of Ukraine !
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 9, 2024 12:11:37 GMT
Unfortunately, it's an insight into the mindset that still supports the orange muppet. The vast, vast majority of Americans that support Trump don't do so because of Ukraine ! The vast, vast majority of 'merkins who support Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a globe. Many would struggle to pick the US out. Quite a few of them would even suggest the globe was a conspiracy.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Sept 9, 2024 16:54:56 GMT
The vast, vast majority of Americans that support Trump don't do so because of Ukraine ! The vast, vast majority of 'merkins who support Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a globe. Many would struggle to pick the US out. Quite a few of them would even suggest the globe was a conspiracy. I would go further than saying they have never seen a map of the world or know where Canada is. I would go as far as saying most Trump supporters dont even own a copy of "The Communist Manifesto" or have probably never visited the European Court of Human Rights webpage*. * - ie they are going straight to hell.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 12, 2024 9:23:13 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 12, 2024 16:06:49 GMT
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Sept 13, 2024 19:04:18 GMT
It would be interesting to know if all the people in this channel who are Pro-War think that it is a good idea if the UK goes it alone and allows Storm Shadows to be used to target inside of Russia. From what I understand the UK/NATO has to be directly involved in the targeting of these missiles which is why it seems very controversial to the Russians - who have said it will be an act of War.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 13, 2024 19:11:53 GMT
It would be interesting to know if all the people in this channel who are Pro-War think that it is a good idea if the UK goes it alone and allows Storm Shadows to be used to target inside of Russia. From what I understand the UK/NATO has to be directly involved in the targeting of these missiles which is why it seems very controversial to the Russians - who have said it will be an act of War. Careful - you'll be accused of scare mongering. I could see Russia declaring war on the UK and then there being a period of "phony war". What happens next I really don't know but presumably it would be a gradual escalation into nuclear if it gets that far rather than an immediate city being destroyed. Oops, I'm "scare mongering" again.....
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 13, 2024 20:51:25 GMT
It would be interesting to know if all the people in this channel who are Pro-War think that it is a good idea if the UK goes it alone and allows Storm Shadows to be used to target inside of Russia. From what I understand the UK/NATO has to be directly involved in the targeting of these missiles which is why it seems very controversial to the Russians - who have said it will be an act of War. well I think you'll be waiting a long time to find someone here who is "Pro-War" amongst those you clearly intended to refer to. All the pro-war people seem to be on the side of Putin, since it is his war and one he could stop tomorrow. On the second point: that's hilarious. Supplying ATGMs was 'very controversial' (to the Russians). Supplying Leopards/Abrams/Challenger tanks was 'very controversial' (to the Russians). Supplying Bradleys/Marders etc. was 'very controversial' (to the Russians). Supplying HIMARS (with restricted range) was 'very controversial' (to the Russians). Supplying F16s was 'very controversial' (to the Russians). So it seems perhaps a teeny weeny little bit likely that Putin has other reasons why he doesn't want Ukr to be supplied with Western weapons. For any use. Of any sort. Rather than a sudden aversion to this scenario specifically. FWIW, I am far from certain, and believe it probably is not correct, that "UK/NATO has to be directly involved in the targeting..." in the sense it is intended. If they were, then one could very reasonably argue that the line of "being at war" had already been crossed, since UK/Fr personnel (in particular) would have been involved directly in targeting Russian military forces from the moment Storm Shadow and SCALP were handed over. So I think that is unlikely. But I understand that it is a line that has been pushed for months in Putin friendly channels. Actual evidence of it would of course be interesting. And I'm not entirely writing it off. They may be dependent on broader US/NATO systems for successful on-target delivery for all I know/don't know. Maybe. Speaking as an anti-war person. I think if the brakes are going to be taken off to allow ANY targeting inside Russia within the full range of Storm Shadow, then I think it should not be done alone. It should be accompanied by the French allowing same for SCALP, and also a similar gesture from the US w.r.t. ATCAMS long range variants. I have no problem with the UK being a champion for this, but I think it has to have multi-partner cover. In a way I did not feel was necessary for e.g. Challenger or Storm Shadow with restrictions. EDIT: And I'd also like to see Germany supply Taurus, but that isn't going to happen anytime soon.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 13, 2024 20:55:41 GMT
It would be interesting to know if all the people in this channel who are Pro-War... Woah up right there. I don't think there's ANYBODY posting here who's "pro-war". As far as I can tell, there's really only one person in the world who is "pro-war". And that's Vlad. Everybody else is either trying to stop him... or simply following him. If Vlad kicked the bucket tomorrow, the war would end the day after. Until he's persuaded that it's a lost cause, Ukraine is at risk from his megalomaniacal expansionism. There's only two ways to stop the war. One is to hand him Ukraine, as he wants. And then... where next? The other is to explain to him, slowly and clearly, why it's not going to happen, and why he should please stop his invasions of the neighbours. Neither you nor I want the war to continue a moment longer than is necessary. The only difference comes in how it should end. You want the first ending. I want the second.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 13, 2024 20:58:32 GMT
I could see Russia declaring war on the UK Declaring* war on a NATO member would last about thirty seconds. It's been two and a half years since he started his nice, easy, no-sweat invasion of next door. Be settled by the weekend, he thought. And still, he's not actually getting anywhere, even in the fringe bits. How long do you think he'd last against the grown-ups? Even Vlad's not quite so stupid as to launch a suicidal nuclear attack. Mutually. Assured. Destruction. He might have the satisfaction of watching the first one hit home. Perhaps. But that warm glow would last seconds before being replaced by a much warmer glow. Even if he launched just a single warhead at somewhere fairly minor, and the west didn't launch a nuclear retaliation, he knows damn well that his best chance of surviving the day would be to be sat in a prison cell in The Hague. * - obvs, not just actually chin-wagging, but doing something about it.
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