adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 23, 2024 14:25:59 GMT
My predictions Labour 370 or so Tories 120 lib dems 60 SNP 40 greens 1 Current range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on May 23, 2024 15:25:15 GMT
Voting for the WG is in 2026, unfortunately many here think that we are voting for the WG, it's an issue that people don't understand the differences.
even today I've been told if Labour wins nationally the council tax here will come down, and by another person that if Labour wins the steelworks will go back to coke as part of labours green jobs agenda
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rscal
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Post by rscal on May 23, 2024 16:00:18 GMT
My predictions Labour 370 or so Tories 120 lib dems 60 SNP 40 greens 1 Current range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party. That might just swing it for the Tories to say they were in favour of eletoral reform (in opposition of course)
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 23, 2024 16:25:15 GMT
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlCurrent range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party. That might just swing it for the Tories to say they were in favour of eletoral reform (in opposition of course) one can only hope - but they have benefitted from a split opposition for so many decades that I seriously doubt it.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 23, 2024 16:26:42 GMT
My predictions Labour 370 or so Tories 120 lib dems 60 SNP 40 greens 1 Current range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party. which makes the current Betfair odds very appealing for both those outcomes.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 23, 2024 16:32:30 GMT
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlCurrent range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party. which makes the current Betfair odds very appealing for both those outcomes. EG: you get a 17-18% return if Labour win a majority, which annualised is well over 100%, with a 2% chance of losing your capital. Much better than P2p frankly... EDIT: and you could have got 32% a few months back. Largest party gets you about 7% (over 50% annualised) with virtually no risk of losing - call it a low LTV... Oh, and it's all tax free to boot.
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james100
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Post by james100 on May 23, 2024 16:44:46 GMT
Still bitter about political betting having backed Rishi to replace BJ as Prime Minister for years only to be ROBBED at the last hurdle by Liz Truss's 49 day interruption! Edit: Paddy Power has Angela Rayner 16/1 to be next Labour Leader....  |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 23, 2024 17:08:14 GMT
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlCurrent range... Con - 32-214, predicted 92 (2019 - 376) Lab - 352-551, predicted 479 (197) LD - 18-58, pred 44 (8) Ref - 0-15, pred 0 (0) Green - 0-4, pred 2 (1) SNP - 3-35, pred 12 (48) PC - 1-4, pred 3 (2) 98% chance of Labour majority, 100% chance of Labour largest party. That might just swing it for the Tories to say they were in favour of eletoral reform (in opposition of course) Well, if our government is governed by opinion polls, not a single party can make changes in this country for many years. Reaching majority agreement > 50% in this broken society is already hard these days. How could a party be ruled as majority when public opinion doesn’t reflect that? Would this country be much better of there was no parties involved in the parliament? Just vote to choose the best candidate for MPs and let the MPs vote independently to make decisions.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on May 23, 2024 18:45:27 GMT
watch yes prime minister ( on I player series 2 episode 5 ) strikes me as very real neither the senior civil servants nor the parties want real democracy where the candidate isn't chosen by a few members either over gin or in a smokey back room
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 23, 2024 19:13:32 GMT
watch yes prime minister ( on I player series 2 episode 5 ) strikes me as very real neither the senior civil servants nor the parties want real democracy where the candidate isn't chosen by a few members either over gin or in a smokey back room I loved yes minister and yes prime minister, most of it is so (possibly amusingly true) Humphrey is my hero so many wonderful comments! I was working in India at the time and the hotel foyer (with a tv) was full of (Indian) people killing them selves laughing. It was also so true in the Indian civil service.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 23, 2024 20:18:13 GMT
even today I've been told if Labour wins nationally the council tax here will come down Well, given how badly the Tories have starved local authorities of funding... Our county council (yes, the other side of the line, but adjacent) has lost 98.5% of its central government funding since 2010 - £1k/household/year. And, of course, CT increases have been capped at or below inflation all that time, too. <boggle> on SOOOOOO many levels.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on May 23, 2024 20:44:28 GMT
Rather blew my mind too
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 23, 2024 21:01:25 GMT
My predictions Labour 370 or so Tories 120 lib dems 60 SNP 40 greens 1 who will win for the Greens, given that Caroline Lucas is not standing.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on May 23, 2024 21:07:32 GMT
her replacement in Brighton, the one who won a seat on the London assembly then stood down after about 4 days
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 23, 2024 21:12:20 GMT
My predictions Labour 370 or so Tories 120 lib dems 60 SNP 40 greens 1 who will win for the Greens, given that Caroline Lucas is not standing. Bristol Central would be 16% swing, but from Labour. IoW W would be 20% swing from Tory. Edinburgh N would be 20% swing from SNP. There's a LOT of 25% from Tory swing seats... To put that into perspective, the smallest RefUK swing to win from Tory would also be 20%. 22% would see 30p Lee reformed.
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