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Post by overthehill on Jun 13, 2024 18:29:28 GMT
How do you know Labour is about to get into Government ?
Check how much your shares and the UK stock market indices have dropped.
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daveb
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Post by daveb on Jun 13, 2024 20:54:54 GMT
How do you know Labour is about to get into Government ?
Check how much your shares and the UK stock market indices have dropped.
Eh? Labour overtook the Tories in the opinion polls at the start of 2022 The FTSE100 has moved gradually upward throughout all of those 2 years Surely a Labour majority has been assumed by the markets for some time?
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Post by overthehill on Jun 13, 2024 21:15:34 GMT
How do you know Labour is about to get into Government ?
Check how much your shares and the UK stock market indices have dropped.
Eh? Labour overtook the Tories in the opinion polls at the start of 2022 The FTSE100 has moved gradually upward throughout all of those 2 years Surely a Labour majority has been assumed by the markets for some time?
Even the stock markets couldn't predict in feb 2022 what was going to happen at the next UK election, it became real when rishi threw in the towel without a fight.
Labour taking credit for positive stock markets is about as likely as Gordon Brown saving the world economy.
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kmac
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Post by kmac on Jun 13, 2024 21:30:14 GMT
I seem to remember that around the year 2000 someone did a comparison between the movements of the FTSE and the political party in power. Do not ask me who it was or when, it is just something that stuck in my mind. The conclusion was that there were bigger rises when Labour was in power. Maybe something to do with infation also rising. I do not think, or I cannot remember if inflation was compared with the FTSE rise during the Labour rule, but the conclusion was that as far as the Stock Exchange was concerned there was nothing to fear about a Labour Government.
It was 20 or 30 years ago, I can now barely remember what I had for Breakfast!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 13, 2024 21:51:32 GMT
How do you know Labour is about to get into Government ?
Check how much your shares and the UK stock market indices have dropped.
That'll be the FTSE250 that's currently around its mid-2017 level (two elections and four PMs ago), despite inflation over that period being nearly 30%? The 52wk low takes it back to 2015 levels.
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Post by overthehill on Jun 13, 2024 22:36:20 GMT
Labour party are just unlucky.
2000–2001: Turkey 2001 Turkish economic crisis 2000: Early 2000s recession 1999–2002: Argentina Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002) 2001: Bursting of dot-com bubble 2007–2008: Global financial crisis of 2007–2008 2008–2011: Iceland Icelandic financial crisis 2008–2014: Spain Spanish financial crisis 2009–2010: Europe European debt crisis
2010–2018: Greece Greek government-debt crisis 2013–: Venezuela Ongoing Venezuelan economic crisis 2014: Brazil 2014 Brazilian economic crisis 2014–2016: Russia Russian financial crisis 2018–: Turkey Ongoing Turkish currency and debt crisis 2019–: Sri Lanka Ongoing Sri Lankan currency and debt crisis 2019–: Lebanon Ongoing Lebanese liquidity crisis 2020: 2020 stock market crash (especially Black Monday and Black Thursday) 2022: Russia Russian financial crisis 2022–: Pakistan Ongoing Pakistani currency and debt crisis
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2024 6:57:04 GMT
I seem to remember that around the year 2000 someone did a comparison between the movements of the FTSE and the political party in power. Do not ask me who it was or when, it is just something that stuck in my mind. The conclusion was that there were bigger rises when Labour was in power. Maybe something to do with infation also rising. I do not think, or I cannot remember if inflation was compared with the FTSE rise during the Labour rule, but the conclusion was that as far as the Stock Exchange was concerned there was nothing to fear about a Labour Government.
It was 20 or 30 years ago, I can now barely remember what I had for Breakfast!
I'm still eating mine and I can't remember what it is
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 7:33:43 GMT
I am going “irrational” and decided to get some breakfast, maybe foraging some “british n fresh wild fruit” in the market.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2024 9:28:06 GMT
Headline in The Times:
"General election latest: Sunak says he will fight to stop Tories from coming third"
That's the spirit Rishi! You tell 'em.
Its not exactly Henry V at Agincourt though.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 14, 2024 9:34:49 GMT
Headline in The Times: "General election latest: Sunak says he will fight to stop Tories from coming third"That's the spirit Rishi! You tell 'em. Its not exactly Henry V at Agincourt though. Can you imagine NF being leader of His Majesty's official opposition party.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2024 10:04:45 GMT
Headline in The Times: "General election latest: Sunak says he will fight to stop Tories from coming third"That's the spirit Rishi! You tell 'em. Its not exactly Henry V at Agincourt though. Can you imagine NF being leader of His Majesty's official opposition party. Unfortunately I can
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 10:06:30 GMT
Not sure if the poll is right this time, or being manipulated.
The Reform UK candidate which appears as a choice in my area, duck duck gooses knows nothing about the cabbage.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 10:06:51 GMT
Headline in The Times: "General election latest: Sunak says he will fight to stop Tories from coming third"That's the spirit Rishi! You tell 'em. Its not exactly Henry V at Agincourt though. Can you imagine NF being leader of His Majesty's official opposition party. Fortunately, it's vanishingly unlikely if measured on number of seats, which is what actually matters. It's what happens under FPTP when your vote share is just a thin smear across the whole country, rather than being locally focussed. As of today... www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlLabour - 461 seat prediction, 321 to 504 range at 90% confidence, 41.4% vote share Tory - 80 seats, 42-236 range, 21.9% LD - 63 seats, 34-77 range, 10.8% SNP - 20 seats, 6-38 range, 3.5% DUP - 7 seats SinnFein - 7 seats Plaid - 3 seats, 1-5 range, 0.7% Other parties & indies - 2 seats, 0-3 range, 1.5% Green - 2 seats, 0-2 range, 5.6% SDLP - 2 seats RefUK - 1 seat, 0-7 range, 14.8% Alliance - 1 seat UUP - 1 seat RefUK sitting at equal eleventh largest party, behind "other parties & independents"... Still, finally becoming an MP on only your eighth attempt must be some kind of record. Other than the Tories, the only party with an outside chance of becoming official opposition are the LDs.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2024 10:36:26 GMT
Can you imagine NF being leader of His Majesty's official opposition party. Fortunately, it's vanishingly unlikely if measured on number of seats, which is what actually matters. It's what happens under FPTP when your vote share is just a thin smear across the whole country, rather than being locally focussed. As of today... www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlLabour - 461 seat prediction, 321 to 504 range at 90% confidence, 41.4% vote share Tory - 80 seats, 42-236 range, 21.9% LD - 63 seats, 34-77 range, 10.8% SNP - 20 seats, 6-38 range, 3.5% DUP - 7 seats SinnFein - 7 seats Plaid - 3 seats, 1-5 range, 0.7% Other parties & indies - 2 seats, 0-3 range, 1.5% Green - 2 seats, 0-2 range, 5.6% SDLP - 2 seats RefUK - 1 seat, 0-7 range, 14.8% Alliance - 1 seat UUP - 1 seat RefUK sitting at equal eleventh largest party, behind "other parties & independents"... Still, finally becoming an MP on only your eighth attempt must be some kind of record. Other than the Tories, the only party with an outside chance of becoming official opposition are the LDs. That is coming at the question from the wrong angle. If Farage wins Clacton, and the Tory party becomes a kind of rump, then it is not impossible that "discussions" will take place and he will be invited to join the party and become their leader, during the course of the next Parliament. Chances of this ? Relatively small, mainly because there are other pretenders to the throne that march to the same populist band that Farage does, just with less "charisma", who would fight against it. But chances are much greater than the chances of Reform having more seats than the Tories.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 10:45:45 GMT
Fortunately, it's vanishingly unlikely if measured on number of seats, which is what actually matters. It's what happens under FPTP when your vote share is just a thin smear across the whole country, rather than being locally focussed. As of today... www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlLabour - 461 seat prediction, 321 to 504 range at 90% confidence, 41.4% vote share Tory - 80 seats, 42-236 range, 21.9% LD - 63 seats, 34-77 range, 10.8% SNP - 20 seats, 6-38 range, 3.5% DUP - 7 seats SinnFein - 7 seats Plaid - 3 seats, 1-5 range, 0.7% Other parties & indies - 2 seats, 0-3 range, 1.5% Green - 2 seats, 0-2 range, 5.6% SDLP - 2 seats RefUK - 1 seat, 0-7 range, 14.8% Alliance - 1 seat UUP - 1 seat RefUK sitting at equal eleventh largest party, behind "other parties & independents"... Still, finally becoming an MP on only your eighth attempt must be some kind of record. Other than the Tories, the only party with an outside chance of becoming official opposition are the LDs. That is coming at the question from the wrong angle. It's coming at it from the only possible angle. Indeed. It's a small chance of something that might or might not happen internally within a party that might or might not be the official opposition. We can take it as read that Sunak is going to be ousted following a dismal election loss. But so will most of the likely challengers. For example, Penny Mordaunt is currently being given just a 16% chance of retaining her seat, JRM 25%. Priti Patel is more likely, 62%; Suella Braverman, 76%. All bets are off as to the next leader until we know who's going to still be in the house... Farage doesn't want to actually DO mundane and boring things. He doesn't want to actually represent constituents. He wants to be a disrupter, a shaker-and-breaker. He never actually DID anything when he was an MEP, after all, with one of the very lowest attendances and voting records.
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