|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2024 12:10:39 GMT
That is coming at the question from the wrong angle. It's coming at it from the only possible angle. Indeed. It's a small chance of something that might or might not happen internally within a party that might or might not be the official opposition. We can take it as read that Sunak is going to be ousted following a dismal election loss. But so will most of the likely challengers. For example, Penny Mordaunt is currently being given just a 16% chance of retaining her seat, JRM 25%. Priti Patel is more likely, 62%; Suella Braverman, 76%. All bets are off as to the next leader until we know who's going to still be in the house... Farage doesn't want to actually DO mundane and boring things. He doesn't want to actually represent constituents. He wants to be a disrupter, a shaker-and-breaker. He never actually DID anything when he was an MEP, after all, with one of the very lowest attendances and voting records. I tell you what, what odds will you give me on Farage becoming the head of the official opposition at some point during the next parliament ? Regardless of whether that is as leader of the Conservatives, a Reform party that has been bolstered by a schism in the Tories, or a party with another name or any other route ?
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,668 
Likes: 2,972
|
Post by michaelc on Jun 14, 2024 12:49:36 GMT
Not sure if the poll is right this time, or being manipulated. The Reform UK candidate which appears as a choice in my area, duck duck gooses knows nothing about the cabbage. Is it just me who would find these posts utterly enlightening if only I knew what they meant....
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,588
Likes: 1,734
|
Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 13:07:40 GMT
TBH, I have no idea how other parties unlikely to win more than 3 seats have so many candidates across the UK. Do they just pay someone to participate the election?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,959
Likes: 5,128
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 13:23:43 GMT
TBH, I have no idea how other parties unlikely to win more than 3 seats have so many candidates across the UK. Do they just pay someone to participate the election? No, they have lots of local people who are willing to stand. They just don't have enough support to actually be elected...
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,959
Likes: 5,128
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 13:24:34 GMT
It's coming at it from the only possible angle. Indeed. It's a small chance of something that might or might not happen internally within a party that might or might not be the official opposition. We can take it as read that Sunak is going to be ousted following a dismal election loss. But so will most of the likely challengers. For example, Penny Mordaunt is currently being given just a 16% chance of retaining her seat, JRM 25%. Priti Patel is more likely, 62%; Suella Braverman, 76%. All bets are off as to the next leader until we know who's going to still be in the house... Farage doesn't want to actually DO mundane and boring things. He doesn't want to actually represent constituents. He wants to be a disrupter, a shaker-and-breaker. He never actually DID anything when he was an MEP, after all, with one of the very lowest attendances and voting records. I tell you what, what odds will you give me on Farage becoming the head of the official opposition at some point during the next parliament ? Regardless of whether that is as leader of the Conservatives, a Reform party that has been bolstered by a schism in the Tories, or a party with another name or any other route ? I don't bet. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. What are the chances? IMHO, slender to vanishing.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,588
Likes: 1,734
|
Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 13:28:29 GMT
TBH, I have no idea how other parties unlikely to win more than 3 seats have so many candidates across the UK. Do they just pay someone to participate the election? No, they have lots of local people who are willing to stand. They just don't have enough support to actually be elected... But why are they willing to stand if there’s a great chance losing £500?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,959
Likes: 5,128
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 13:36:50 GMT
No, they have lots of local people who are willing to stand. They just don't have enough support to actually be elected... But why are they willing to stand if there’s a great chance losing £500? It's not their money, it's the party's. And, in the case of RefUK, that means it's largely been Richard Tice paying the bills up until the last year or two. Various others make sizeable donations, too, including various "disaster capitalists" who stand to make a killing themselves from the country doing poorly. Jeremy Hosking, Christopher Harborne, a few others including Crispin Odey. Then there's the ex-Neighbours actor Holly Valance, married to one of the Candy brother prime-property developers. She's also hosting a big Trump fundraiser in London soon.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,588
Likes: 1,734
|
Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 13:39:47 GMT
EXACTLY, someone paid them to stand. it’s not candidates money
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,668
Likes: 2,972
|
Post by michaelc on Jun 14, 2024 13:52:59 GMT
I tell you what, what odds will you give me on Farage becoming the head of the official opposition at some point during the next parliament ? Regardless of whether that is as leader of the Conservatives, a Reform party that has been bolstered by a schism in the Tories, or a party with another name or any other route ? I don't bet. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. What are the chances? IMHO, slender to vanishing. With PR which I think you are very much in favour of, Farage would have a very good chance indeed of being HM's official opposition and in pole position to become PM in 5 years time.
|
|
toffeeboy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 538
Likes: 385
|
Post by toffeeboy on Jun 14, 2024 14:41:05 GMT
EXACTLY, someone paid them to stand. it’s not candidates money The party pays their entry fee from it's donations, they aren't paid. Completely different thing Do you think Keir Starmer is paying his own entry fee?
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,312
Likes: 11,522
|
Post by ilmoro on Jun 14, 2024 15:50:39 GMT
But why are they willing to stand if there’s a great chance losing £500? It's not their money, it's the party's. And, in the case of RefUK, that means it's largely been Richard Tice paying the bills up until the last year or two. Various others make sizeable donations, too, including various "disaster capitalists" who stand to make a killing themselves from the country doing poorly. Jeremy Hosking, Christopher Harborne, a few others including Crispin Odey. Then there's the ex-Neighbours actor Holly Valance, married to one of the Candy brother prime-property developers. She's also hosting a big Trump fundraiser in London soon. Sorry Adrian, you missed it, Wed night the BBC was outside reporting on it. You'll have to check with Nige as he attended. A lot of RefUk candidates are actually self-funding reportedly. Holly V was going to stand but changed her mind.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,959
Likes: 5,128
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2024 16:23:04 GMT
A lot of RefUk candidates are actually self-funding reportedly. Oh, dear... <chuckle> Anyway, the Electoral Commission have just announced the officially declared first-week-of-campaigning donations (£11k+ only) Labour - £926k, Tory - £575k, LD - £455k, RefUK - £140k, SNP - £36k Largest single donation is £500k to Labour from the film producer behind Four Weddings, Duncan Kenworthy. Largest single Tory donation was £88k from Bassam Haidar, a Nigerian-born Lebanese-national billionaire who's previously had a public huff about the ending of non-dom tax - www.theguardian.com/news/2024/may/02/i-am-moving-tycoon-bassim-haidar-non-dom-tax-status-super-rich-exodusTo contrast that with 2019's first-week donations... Tory - £5.7m, Lab - £218k www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyrr1zk1e8no
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,028
Likes: 4,430
|
Post by agent69 on Jun 14, 2024 16:24:14 GMT
EXACTLY, someone paid them to stand. it’s not candidates money Do you think Keir Starmer is paying his own entry fee? Probably doesn't have too much to worry about, as he will probably pass the 5% threshold with a bit to spare.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,028
Likes: 4,430
|
Post by agent69 on Jun 14, 2024 16:30:07 GMT
A lot of RefUk candidates are actually self-funding reportedly. Oh, dear... <chuckle> Anyway, the Electoral Commission have just announced the officially declared first-week-of-campaigning donations (£11k+ only) Labour - £926k, Tory - £575k, LD - £455k, RefUK - £140k, SNP - £36k Largest single donation is £500k to Labour from the film producer behind Four Weddings, Duncan Kenworthy. Largest single Tory donation was £88k from Bassam Haidar, a Nigerian-born Lebanese-national billionaire who's previously had a public huff about the ending of non-dom tax - www.theguardian.com/news/2024/may/02/i-am-moving-tycoon-bassim-haidar-non-dom-tax-status-super-rich-exodusTo contrast that with 2019's first-week donations... Tory - £5.7m, Lab - £218k www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyrr1zk1e8noI guess some people just know how to back a winner
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,588
Likes: 1,734
|
Post by benaj on Jun 14, 2024 16:32:42 GMT
Why I wonder why the love actually producer love labour campaign so much this time?
|
|
