keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Jun 21, 2024 9:12:46 GMT
Meanwhile the chair of Islington North Labour party has stepped down, after he was seen canvassing for Corbyn
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 9:21:25 GMT
Meanwhile the chair of Islington North Labour party has stepped down, after he was seen canvassing for Corbyn Find me a party that doesn't have "campaigns for the opposition" as a red line... And, yeh, the chair of the constituency that's adopted him as their candidate for every election since 1983. I'm actually more surprised he didn't resign in support.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 21, 2024 9:24:05 GMT
I can't honestly see much of a turn out at the polls tbh. No party seems to have anything to excite in their manifestos. The recent (up here anyway)greens manifesto was complete air head stuff as usual, snp... 17 years to change stuff ...hopefully they will reap their rewards for incompetence, labour.. rape oil revenue from Aberdeen.. hardly a vote winner. Tories never get a look in anyway so what's left? Macron not having an easy time either over in france. Folk want positive action and are fed up of words. Bit of a mess overall. My biggest disappointment is that Labour have played this too safe. I'm not a huge Labour fan, I'm a natural conservative, its just that I stopped being a natural Conservative sometime back. The country is in a mess. We have the awful combination of broken public services, particularly health and social care systems, and education, but with massive public debt. There is very little long term infrastructure planning. And what does happen is wrong headed and subject to change, and is subject to woeful delivery: see HS2 as exhibit no. 1, but certainly not the only one. We have a significant housing crisis, in that housing is simply unaffordable for many. And yet we have populist politicians whose proposed solutions is to regularly roll out various schemes to help with the demand side ("Help to Buy", Stamp duty holidays) because they appeal to certain voters. While at the same time constantly pandering to those that want to stymie the supply side. The net effect of course being to simply inflate house asset values even further. The politicians know full well what they are doing. Oh, and we have a pretty crushing need to improve our Armed Forces (aka raised defence spending AND resolve some underlying issues). The Conservative mantra is to "cut taxes", even though it addresses absolutely known of the above. Having been in power one way or another for what, 14 years, they are bereft of any ideas and have demonstrated absolutely no vision of how they see the country. Apart from wanting to cut taxes, apparently. Oh, and stop immigrants. But given they have been spouting on about that for like forever and have managed to achieve the opposite, it amounts to a big fat "really?". While also overseeing practises that have for example left Afghans that worked for us utterly adrift (which is shameful). We are in a fairly unusual position: the party that is normally associated with good economic governance is simply not trusted with that anymore by many of its natural voters. Having been in power, anything it has to say about what it would do naturally elicits the response "So why the **** haven't you already done it". It is also viewed as somewhat rotten to the core: a constant stream of incidents which reveal many of its members to be lacking in basic ethics, morals and sense of decent behaviour. Not to mention god knows how many years of constant infighting. In short, few people see them as fit to govern. And a public though are veering towards no longer seeing the NHS as a sacred cow, to boot. I think this is a missed opportunity for a centre-left party to have painted a different, upbeat vision of what they want to see and do. That could have included a statement that they see a need to increase total taxation by x to facilitate priorities like an integrated health and social care system, a reset of the NHS with nothing off the table as to how we deliver a public health service*, reducing the public debt burden. Oh, and an increase in defence spending which they could sell to some of their base as being an unfortunate necessity of the times. They could acknowledge that all this won't be delivered in a single parliament. The damage to the Tories right now is sufficiently dire that they could have gone with that, still won a decent majority, and had a mandate to do some useful stuff. Not tinker round the edges boxed in with a bunch of specific tax pledges they didn't need to make. *I'm glad to see that Wes Streeting is at least making some half decent noises in that direction.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 9:28:46 GMT
My biggest disappointment is that Labour have played this too safe. It's the "ming vase". Don't scare anybody off by giving the Mail/Express/Telegraph grounds for hysterical headlines. Don't scare the disaffected soft-right with "LABOUR TAX HIKE!" headlines. Don't scare the wall with "LABOUR WANT BREXIT UNDONE!" headlines. Don't scare anybody by saying anything. This election is absolutely Starmer's to lose. It's even more of an open goal than 2017, and they've learned the lessons of that fiasco.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 21, 2024 10:00:53 GMT
Down in the West country we have been hit quite a lot by boundary changes. As a result we now have to share an MP with the ruffians across the border in Somerset.
When I got home from me hols a couple of days ago the only election leflets on the door mat were Tory and Lib Dems (Labour, greens and Reform also on the ballot paper but apparently not worth wasting money campaigning down this way). Tories are favourites to regain the seat they lost in the bye election last year, but can't say I'm overly impressed with the choice.
- The Tory candidate is the current MP for the next constituence along (Bridgewater and West Somerset). Not clear why he's moving shop.
- Lib Dem is a local councillor who has failed in 3 previous constituencies, most recently for Taunton Deane.
Looks like we only qualify for other people's cast-offs
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 21, 2024 10:09:27 GMT
As a result we now have to share an MP with the ruffians across the border in Somerset. That must be incredibly distressing!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 10:15:20 GMT
Down in the West country we have been hit quite a lot by boundary changes. As a result we now have to share an MP with the ruffians across the border in Somerset.
When I got home from me hols a couple of days ago the only election leflets on the door mat were Tory and Lib Dems (Labour, greens and Reform also on the ballot paper but apparently not worth wasting money campaigning down this way). Tories are favourites to regain the seat they lost in the bye election last year, but can't say I'm overly impressed with the choice.
- The Tory candidate is the current MP for the next constituence along (Bridgewater and West Somerset). Not clear why he's moving shop.
He's not really. Half of that constituency is now your new Tiverton and Minehead constituency... The rest of it, Bridgwater, is the one that's parachuting somebody in - ex-MEP and leader of the EuroTories, knighted by May... so a big party name into a not-as-unsafe-as-most seat.
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Post by mostlywrong on Jun 21, 2024 10:22:37 GMT
By my reckoning, VWRL is 2 standard deviations above its long term trend line.
I sold in April above £100 and did not expect it to rise much further.
Maybe I got that wrong...
MW
well it's curious as to what will happen. As a lay onlooker this is a time when I'd expect reviewers to say isms like 'we're due a small correction ' and what goes up must come down ' etc, but people aren't saying this. And that is the time to collect your drink and handbag and edge towards the exit…
MW
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Post by mostlywrong on Jun 21, 2024 10:32:06 GMT
My biggest disappointment is that Labour have played this too safe. It's the "ming vase". Don't scare anybody off by giving the Mail/Express/Telegraph grounds for hysterical headlines. Don't scare the disaffected soft-right with "LABOUR TAX HIKE!" headlines. Don't scare the wall with "LABOUR WANT BREXIT UNDONE!" headlines. Don't scare anybody by saying anything. This election is absolutely Starmer's to lose. It's even more of an open goal than 2017, and they've learned the lessons of that fiasco. 2017? 2019 surely??
I was about to argue the toss with you on that one. My general rule of thumb is that Oppositions rarely win elections; it is Governments that mostly lose elections.
And then I remembered the antics of Messrs Kinnock and Miliband in the last days of their respective campaigns.
I still think Labour is about to waltz into Downing Street.
But you are right; it ain't over until the fat lady sings.
MW
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 10:40:51 GMT
It's the "ming vase". Don't scare anybody off by giving the Mail/Express/Telegraph grounds for hysterical headlines. Don't scare the disaffected soft-right with "LABOUR TAX HIKE!" headlines. Don't scare the wall with "LABOUR WANT BREXIT UNDONE!" headlines. Don't scare anybody by saying anything. This election is absolutely Starmer's to lose. It's even more of an open goal than 2017, and they've learned the lessons of that fiasco. 2017? 2019 surely?? No, May's utter cock-up. "I've got a majority, but it's not MY majority... Oh, I've not got a majority". Even Millibobble Minor would have won that one. Just about anybody but OoohJeremyTrouserpress. By 2019, BJ Piffle was in full-fat labrador-puppy-hype.
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Post by mostlywrong on Jun 21, 2024 10:42:19 GMT
No, May's utter cock-up. "I've got a majority, but it's not MY majority... Oh, I've not got a majority". Even Millibobble Minor would have won that one. Just about anybody but OoohJeremyTrouserpress. By 2019, BJ Piffle was in full-fat labrador-puppy-hype. How quickly one forgets...
MW
Edited to add: I have just re-read my post and I conflated 2 comments. Doh!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 10:43:01 GMT
No, May's utter cock-up. "I've got a majority, but it's not MY majority... Oh, I've not got a majority". Even Millibobble Minor would have won that one. Just about anybody but OoohJeremyTrouserpress. By 2019, BJ Piffle was in full-fat labrador-puppy-hype. How quickly one forgets...
MW
Yeh, quite a lot happened in a short while.
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JamesFrance
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Post by JamesFrance on Jun 21, 2024 10:47:52 GMT
Starmer says nothing because he is a sheep not a leader, terrified of losing a vote so ignoring all the things he said in the past hoping we have short memories. The same tactic as Blair, keeping the labour party quiet until after the election. At least Corbyn was honest but that doesen't win elections. Changed labour party? surely nobody believes that.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 21, 2024 10:57:23 GMT
Changed labour party? surely nobody believes that. If parties are incapable of changing, at which historical point would you say the Conservative party was stuck?
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JamesFrance
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Post by JamesFrance on Jun 21, 2024 11:11:24 GMT
Changed labour party? surely nobody believes that. If parties are incapable of changing, at which historical point would you say the Conservative party was stuck? It's present sorry state was brought about by Cameron changing the type of approved candidates, so you do have a point. I don't think the members have changed.
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