Next general election (2024)

I'm still awake, just. My thought is that the Tories made a mistake in tracking right to become a pale version of Reform, rather than ditching the Bravermann wing and heading towards the centre ground. This is where Labour and the Lib Dems are, and where the preponderence of the votes are to be found. I'm thinking about moderate right wingers. A lot of people are Conservative without having immigration as an obsession, and who don't think climate change is a woke issue.

 

Clear trends now - turnout very low, no real enthusasim for Labour as their vote hasnt really increased, Tories losing seats entirely due to Reform taking their votes. BBC swing to Labour figures are clearly nonsense. Pro Gaza vote hitting Labour.

Francois in
2p Lee in
Galloway gone
Ange in (vote down & less than 50% turnout)
Kier in (vote down, majority reduced due to pro Gaza candidate coming second)
Shapps gone
IDS in (massive increase in majority as Lab vote split by the candidate they dumped)
Lab lose Leicester East to Con due to pro-Gaza candidates taking votes
Corbyn in
Nige in by miles
Kemi in
Ashworth (Shadow Cabinet) gone to pro-Gaza seat
Sir Ollie in

BBC prediction - Majority down to 160, Tories up to 154, Reform only 4, SNP 6

Fabricant gone
Chief Whip gone
Keegan (Education) gone
Cruella in
Debonnaire (Shadow Cabinet) gone
Holden 'Chicken Run' Tory Chairman in by 20 votes after full recount
Tice in
Penny gone
Coffey gone
Mercer gone

If Tories getting slaughtered, SNP getting massacred

Streeting in - just

Predicted majority back to 170

Just checked the result for my post code. The Green Party candidate in my area gained most votes from the conservative voters. The named Reform UK candidate in my area got enough votes to have the deposit back.

I hope the 11 Niko O lost all their money and won’t do it again.

Not sure I agree entirely with that analysis (that Con move to the right is not a significant factor). I think there is a lot of geographic variation in line with predictions by quite a few commentators pre-election. 

Overall, there hasn't been a huge amount of enthusiasm for Labour per se, other than as a route to kick the Tories out. 'Down south', there have been significant Lib Dem gains. That has to be partly down to former Tory voters voting Lib Dem. That is probably a mix of "won't vote Tory, can't vote for labour" and some down to leakage of votes to Reform. Also some tactical voting where LD where the clear favourites to be the challenger to the Tories. Quite possible also that the low turnout has a considerable contribution from disaffected Tory voters that simply won't vote for them this time (due to tack to the right), but wouldn't countenance voting for Reform. 

Part of the Reform vote may also be not just 'tack to the right' but simple protest vote. Votes that could well have stayed with the Tories if only they had shown some degree of basic competence. Though I'd agree that was more likely to go in other directions. 

One thing we can be certain of: the various factions within the Tory party will draw the lessons from this that best fit their agenda. When Labour lose, its normally "we haven't had a sufficiently left wing agenda", until they try that to the extreme and still fail. Then they tack to the centre again. And the mirror image normally applies to the Tories. 

EDIT: Oh, and the "safe" tory seat of Bracknell went to labour, but only by a very slim majority. At least I don't have to feel guilty now about having put a cross in a box that wasn't Labour. 

It does look like Conservative candidate lost the votes to other parties / candidates but Labour, mainly Reform UK in the 2024 GE. TBH, Labour hasn’t make much gain in number of votes in general.

It is also a joke / blessing in our “democracy” that 4 million votes for reform UK only grab 4 seats in the parliament for this “change”.

Yet, SNP with less than 700k votes get 9 seats and Lib Dem with less votes than Reform UK gets 71 seats.

Plaid get 4 with less than 200,000 votes,

I assume Lib Dems will stop demanding PR

I also assume the SNP will forget the promise that "the next general election will be a de facto independence referendum"

I see Bill Wiggin lost ( hoorah ) but Christopher Chope won, of all the people I had feelings on he is the one I most wanted to lose

Will be interesting to see what Labour do in 1997 the inherited an economy in a good place, quite the opposite this time so they have to get the money to do things from savings elsewhere or raise taxes ( or invent new ones ) One that wouldn't annoy me would be to impose NI on pensions other than the state pension, I would be affected but see it as fair.