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Post by snowflake on Feb 24, 2023 8:09:03 GMT
I have around 23 late live loans or partially repaid loans that ended in 2021/22. Should I panic? It's over half the loan portfolio. I asked about the earliest ones but got no reply. Stopped reinvesting few months back.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Feb 24, 2023 8:58:12 GMT
This was discussed in the CEO's interview with FinancialThing. There's a link to the recording in the OP of this thread: p2pindependentforum.com/post/468228/thread. FWIW the proportion of late loans in my active account have started to reduce following some recent repayments from late loans. |
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firedog
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Post by firedog on Feb 24, 2023 9:19:32 GMT
My proportion of late loans has started to decline too. Perhaps related, perhaps not: seems to be that CP are being a bit more communicative recently re updates on late or likely-to-be-late projects.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 24, 2023 9:35:19 GMT
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Feb 24, 2023 9:54:28 GMT
Losses will be declared when they are crystallised. Can't do it just because a loan is late by a certain time period. I've had many loans make full recoveries after being late for more than a year.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 24, 2023 10:20:45 GMT
Agreed.
But the 1% Anticipated Losses on CP stats does not reflect the following:
4.8% are expected to suffer a loss of some interest, but no loss of capital.
1.6% are expected to suffer a loss of some capital.
the 4.8% and 1.6% are nowhere to be find on their stats.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Feb 24, 2023 10:30:58 GMT
Agreed. But the 1% Anticipated Losses on CP stats does not reflect the following: 4.8% are expected to suffer a loss of some interest, but no loss of capital. 1.6% are expected to suffer a loss of some capital. the 4.8% and 1.6% are nowhere to be find on their stats. I agree. I'd like to see those stats displayed and maintained too. I don't know how the 1% anticipated loss is arrived at. Probably some FCA requirement to display something, and perhaps 1% is the lowest allowed. Pure speculation. It could easily be argued that it should be lower given the number of years with no losses and detailed analysis of currently expected losses that Mike presented in the webcast.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Feb 24, 2023 13:26:20 GMT
Default after 180 days as that's the regulatory requirement. Loss eligible either when they enter formal recovery or loss is crystallised. If they don't do former you can do it yourself.
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morris
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Post by morris on Mar 12, 2023 8:53:14 GMT
From 4thWay recently: 'While two losses totalling £300,000 are expected on older loans in 2023, these are the first and they have an unnoticeable impact on overall lending returns.'
Overall returns maybe, but not on individual loan portfolios depending how much of you have invested in these two loans.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Mar 12, 2023 9:54:27 GMT
From 4thWay recently: 'While two losses totalling £300,000 are expected on older loans in 2023, these are the first and they have an unnoticeable impact on overall lending returns.' Overall returns maybe, but not on individual loan portfolios depending how much of you have invested in these two loans. It's not clear to me which the two loans are that are expected to have losses, but assuming that one of them is my oldest defaulted loan that is currently in administration, and that half of the total losses were in this loan (so £150k loss)... The total amount that CP lenders have made on this loan is £1.5m. Which would mean that each lender in the loan would lose 10% of their amount lent. So, if someone was invested in this loan only, they would lose 10% of the amount they lent minus the interest they will have received if they are in the first 3 tranches of this loan. It would have been a fairly idiotic strategy to have lent all one's capital to a single loan. According to CP, the average lender is invested in 74 loans. Assuming their capital was spread equally across those loans, their loss would be 0.135% of their invested capital. The 4 tranches of these loans were funded between Jan 2020 and Feb 2021. So, on average, they've been invested for 2.5 years. Over this time they would have received roughly 20% in interest. So this 1 loan failure would reduce their total return from around 20% to just under 20%. If this average lender was invested in both loans expecting losses, assuming the other loan is a similar size (I've no idea if that's true), they would reduce their total return from around 20% to around 19.75%.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Mar 15, 2023 8:04:10 GMT
Another defaulted loan repaid in full yesterday with just over a year's worth of penally interest. The 14th defaulted loan to fully repay. This cuts the number of outstanding defaulted loans from 19 to 18.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Mar 27, 2023 11:37:48 GMT
Another defaulted loan has repaid today with penally interest. The 15th defaulted loan to fully repay. This cuts the number of outstanding defaulted loans from 18 to 17, which should be reflected in the platform statistics page following tonight's update. .
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Apr 4, 2023 15:53:23 GMT
Another defaulted loan has fully repaid; the 16th to do so. There are now 16 in default (> 180 days late). They seem to be making good progress with these, having reduced the number by 3 in the past month.
However, I have 2 more in my portfolio that will enter this category if not repaid in the next fortnight.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Apr 5, 2023 12:15:06 GMT
Another defaulted loan has just repaid with almost a full year of penalty interest. This leaves 15 loans still in default.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Apr 10, 2023 17:03:02 GMT
Two more loans have entered default status (>180 days late), so now 17 in default.
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