jlend
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Post by jlend on Oct 22, 2023 20:08:22 GMT
Stuart was on BBC2 Sunday evening
Britain’s Housing Crisis: What Went Wrong?
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JamesFrance
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Post by JamesFrance on Oct 23, 2023 14:50:25 GMT
Very simple, Chancellors from Brown onwards all boosted the prices, causing the inevitable rise in the cost of living which destroyed the British economy and impoverished much of the population. Hunt is about to do the same again now because interest rates are back to where they were before the BofE started it's nonsense and buyers are scarce.
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Oct 23, 2023 16:11:25 GMT
Very simple, Chancellors from Brown onwards all boosted the prices, causing the inevitable rise in the cost of living which destroyed the British economy and impoverished much of the population. Hunt is about to do the same again now because interest rates are back to where they were before the BofE started it's nonsense and buyers are scarce. I hold Thatcher responsible - her first government (1979-83) started to tinker in privatization of debt. They were the ones that skuled the British in being more American (i.e. living beyond your means) and 'liberalized' the limited means of personal borrowing then in existence, thus ushering in the current usury-based system known euphenistically as 'finance'. It goes back to '81or '82.
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morris
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Post by morris on Oct 24, 2023 6:41:09 GMT
The large donations made by housebuilders to this tory government means that policy is skewed in their interest and not housebuyers.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Oct 24, 2023 7:02:40 GMT
Absolutely, my 1st mortgage was limited to 3 x base income , overtime bonuses ect could not count. This limited the market to prices which realistically people could pay during financial shocks over the life of the loan.Given even then it could be very hard , my interest rate went to 15% the day I moved in. My then insurance backed repayment of the capital, garrenteed the full amount of the loan from day one, any excess profit was mine at term. Then the sillyness started , 5 times salary , assumed return rates which if not achieved would leave a shortfall. All this was to drive commissions , builders profits and estate agent fees. It was in all their interests to drive the fantasy of turning homes into commodities which would perpetually increase in value in excess of inflation . Well America should have given us all a lesson in that stupidity, however all I see is a steady pressure from the housing business sector is to make homes more affordable. That is of course only by , multi generational mortgages, shared ownership or any other way of driving real house costs and profits up, not house prices down to a sustainable level. So what do I see now around me, every layby, bit of waste ground being used on occasion by young people living in vans. They have given up being in the system it does not work for them and never will, and unable to afford rental or house purchase no longer see any future in participation in classic social society. There numbers are increasing rapidly, two years ago there was only a couple of cans working around the island , now there is over 20, it's seen as perfectly acceptable style and way of life among the majority of there peers.
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JamesFrance
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Post by JamesFrance on Oct 24, 2023 8:38:46 GMT
It's not only vanlife, there is a huge increase of people living in narrowboats and continuously cruising to save on mooring costs. The current availability of jobs with homeworking makes these realistic options for younger folk.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 24, 2023 13:20:42 GMT
Overall I agree with the above - I am a dealer/developer. I have sold most of my properties as I think the UK housing market is going to "correct" I paid £13,250 for my first house! The amount of money the bank etc will lend is just silly if not morally irresponsible True there is huge demand but interest rates are much higher now and people with a £400K house with a £200K mortgage probably felt pretty secure but if the value goes down my £100K and he mortgage up by 50% then maybe not...
Nothern Rock, Spain , US etc have all had mega problems and I believe the UK will as well although not as bad
I may be wrong but I have zero debt and no regrets about selling up...
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Post by brightspark on Oct 24, 2023 17:53:18 GMT
So when do you advise jumping in again so as not to miss the next boat? What is the signal to look for?
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Oct 25, 2023 9:08:13 GMT
I am not sure the boat will float as high again, the young I meet simply do not believe in the home owning dream as much and are certainly unwilling to make the sacrifices required at present. For example a friends son with 2 children has a very good job for around here. A very skilled marine engineer working all over the world for a major marine engine manufacturer , think container ship size engines,on a salary of £50000 a year no over time payed. His rent for an ex council 2 bed terrace house is £ 1500 pounds a month going to £2000 soon , plus rates and power bills. So he needs £26000 plus a year out of his net income. He took a cold look at rarely seeing his family working commonly 14 hour days living on board or in hotels in sometimes dangerous locations and is planning to walk and go on the dole or a local national minimum wage job with housing benefit. His college got stabbed for cash returning to the hotel in Brazil after their complaints to head office of being in a location where all the other guests were prostitutes or drug dealers, refused a move as there was to little profit in the job to move them. So on his last job the companies Turkish division took on a engine rebuild turned down by other international sections of the business as unable to resource. Then they found out they could not resource it even by dragging in engineers worldwide so many were walking away. So it ended up 18 hr days with a lot of the people in the team unable to share a common language, not safe and 3 weeks of it finished him.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 25, 2023 10:35:36 GMT
Very good question - wish I knew!
I buy houses for profit as well as my main home so depends on what you want
My feeling (guess!) is to wait until at least a 10% fall in average prices and to see what is happening with interest rates - if they are still going up then I would wait for a further fall in house prices to possiby 20%.
Also I would wait until after the election - if Labour boost spending then I can foresee the £ falling and they will be forced to put rates up.
IMHO - the ratio of mortgages to average income is far too high and once people are forced to sell there will be a mini panic on the other hand there is massive demand but that is only supported by the large amount of cash available to fund it and I am not sure how long that will last
Personally I blame a lot of the overheating on this QE rubbish rather than taking painful decisions at the time
Just my thoughts and I may be 100% wrong so would appreciate other polite responses
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james100
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Post by james100 on Oct 25, 2023 15:09:10 GMT
Very good question - wish I knew! I buy houses for profit as well as my main home so depends on what you want My feeling (guess!) is to wait until at least a 10% fall in average prices and to see what is happening with interest rates - if they are still going up then I would wait for a further fall in house prices to possiby 20%. Also I would wait until after the election - if Labour boost spending then I can foresee the £ falling and they will be forced to put rates up. IMHO - the ratio of mortgages to average income is far too high and once people are forced to sell there will be a mini panic on the other hand there is massive demand but that is only supported by the large amount of cash available to fund it and I am not sure how long that will last Personally I blame a lot of the overheating on this QE rubbish rather than taking painful decisions at the time Just my thoughts and I may be 100% wrong so would appreciate other polite responses I didn't watch the programme, but on brightspark your question I would say signals are very much specific to the location, type of property, price bracket and individual ownership (and sometimes tenant) profile of the area. Price movements are always obscured by delays caused by this country's generally convoluted residential house sale process (and then land registry data publication lag) but here's some food for thought: I sold a 2 bed apartment in nice part of London at end 2014. Central location, great management company, reasonable service charges. Local pop majority city professionals, high % rented, high % internationals (landlords & tenants). On sale, buyers immediately spent at least £20K on full replacement kitchen, minor structural work, full redec/carpet/radiators, plumbing upgrades. This would bring 'move in' cost to ~ £10.5K/sqm (+ stamp & legal). The same property is back on the market. The guide price now starts from £8.5K/sqm, representing a nominal loss of ~ -20% and an inflation-adjusted loss of ~ -40% (per BoE inflation calculator). And they're not going in low; there have been multiple agents and on the market in various forms for 4+ months. So what the hell happened between 2014 and 2023? Off the top of my head and in no particular order: 1. Tax changes impacting landlord income - reductions of allowances e.g. wear & tear 10%, mortgage interest, private residence relief 36 months 2. Tax changes impacting landlord capital gains - cgt rate increase, cgt allowance decrease, foreign/expat cgt full exemption removed 3. Brexit - less attractive than it used to be for international professionals and their families to move here; there are equally nice countries with less admin to deal with 4. Covid - lots left for space and not quite as many came back. For those who did many don't have to be in London more than a day or 2 a week. 5. Flexible accommodation - Airbnb, spareroom, hotel tonight etc all (now) viable alternatives for flexible working patterns (compared to either purchase or rental) 6. Cost of Living - not a huge deal but definitely worth stopping obvious financial wastage on stuff you don't use/need like a pied a terre for commuting to London 7. Interest rate reversal to global financial crisis levels = the straw that broke the already very wounded and extremely downtrodden camel's back In terms of 'missing boats', the current market price of this particular property, once adjusted for inflation, is now looking pretty damn close (<10% higher) to what I paid for it in mid 2000s when the are was much grittier and I had a mortgage interest rate of 4.74%. I guess the point is to look closely as the relative underlying factors affecting values of a property/area before placing your bets.
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alender
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Post by alender on Oct 25, 2023 19:33:05 GMT
It is difficult to know what will happen as houses are unaffordable for many but with large scale immigration and a limited housing stock increasing far below the levels needed just to house all the new people.
High house prices were perhaps deliberately caused or just as a side effect of government (both parties). Rising house prices make home owners feel good and spend more money or even borrow more for spending boosting the economy, also adding to stamp duty and inheritance tax. Or because governments went for ZIRP so they could borrow cheaply and boost industry with low borrowing costs so producing more tax. In order to keep things moving government came up with various schemes to help first time buyers making the situation worse. Also ZIRP encouraged buy to let landlords as everyone who owns a house is a property expert (they think) and returns from interest saving are poor.
Government recently decided buy to let landlords are a cash cow increased tax to levels which are forcing them out or have to charge huge rents to survive.
I am looking to get planning permission for 2 new homes on the edge of the plot of my current house but the costs are huge, ESG reports, Flood reports, planning cost etc along with the building costs may not make it worthwhile due to devaluation of my current property so may just sell as is. Looking to go abroad and took a look at some properties in the Algarve, one is a stunning house in an expensive area, great views etc was for sale well below building costs in the UK. So unless something significantly changes with planning permission in the UK more new homes won’t help much as these cannot be produced at a cost to significantly affect UK house prices.
Looked at borrowing some cash to buy an apartment in Gibraltar and rent out until I am ready to move to help get residency but the taxes are the same for UK or property abroad, was told this tax was to help new UK house buyers but obviously just a tax grab.
This has lead to this mess, a shortage of houses, no chance of a significant number being built as more and more people enter the country. The shortage gets worse, less buy to let landlords leading to fast rising rents, you see reports that when a property comes up for rent a very large number of applicants and sometimes landlords asking for a year’s rent in advance. Also with very few new people able to buy and those in large houses not willing to trade down because of costs mostly high stamp duty even for relative low priced properties.
Where does it go from here, who knows? My best guess in the long term will see a decent rise in house prices due to supply and demand unless of course the economy crashes which IMO also seems likely.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 26, 2023 9:53:49 GMT
Very true - there is no way I would build new now - programmes such as Building The Dream make me laugh with their costings - personally I think this is very irresponsible by the producers. yes the UK housing market is in a mess with 2 competing factors - very high demand paid for by borrowed money with people ever more in debt - nasty...
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 26, 2023 10:33:13 GMT
There seem to be a huge number of new houses being built around here, every open space seems to be becoming a new housing estate. Doesn't seem to be any shortage of developers.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Oct 27, 2023 15:07:41 GMT
On the subject of guessing the future ... ... the October market update popped into my inbox from Allsops - here's the economic outlook overview (of an otherwise extensive report), which might be of interest There, hopefully that will have clarified everything ...
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