keitha
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Post by keitha on Oct 27, 2023 18:51:38 GMT
I blame the FOMO that many have and also the TV programs like location location location, grand designs etc. Was watching a rerun the other week 21 year old couple with £200,000 as a deposit which he had saved since starting work, they were looking for around the £750-£800,000 mark. so a £600,000 mortgage which at 5% is £30,000 a year or £2,500 a month just in interest.
Another couple were mid 40's and looking for a holiday home at about £500,000
look at grand designs very few start with a budget < £1 million
As to prices, this part of the Welsh Valleys has gone up 60% in 6 years, but then 6 years ago a £60,000 house would bring in £400 a month rent now similar houses are over £100,000 but rents have nearly doubled, is it increased rents that is causing the prices to go up or are the landlords wanting the same percentage return.
go to Cardiff average rent around £1500. my works pension would cover rent and council tax and possibly electric, but not gas water food etc up here with Council tax, Utilities, Broadband, insurance I'd have about £300 left for transport, Food, repairs and replacements etc hardly a lot to survive on is it
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james100
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Post by james100 on Oct 27, 2023 19:29:17 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 27, 2023 19:43:46 GMT
Overall I agree with the above - I am a dealer/developer. I have sold most of my properties as I think the UK housing market is going to "correct" I paid £13,250 for my first house! The amount of money the bank etc will lend is just silly if not morally irresponsible True there is huge demand but interest rates are much higher now and people with a £400K house with a £200K mortgage probably felt pretty secure but if the value goes down my £100K and he mortgage up by 50% then maybe not... Nothern Rock, Spain , US etc have all had mega problems and I believe the UK will as well although not as bad I may be wrong but I have zero debt and no regrets about selling up... But haven't we been thinking its going to correct for the best part of the last 20 years ? I think the fundamental issue is much simpler than many have stated. Supply & Demand. Demand has risen substantially as the population has increased.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Oct 27, 2023 22:21:57 GMT
I think the demand for new houses is high, when I was young most people where I lived started in a terraced house then upgraded over time to a better one, whereas now many youngsters want to start with a newish semi
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 27, 2023 23:24:22 GMT
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Oct 28, 2023 7:18:23 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 28, 2023 9:45:35 GMT
Overall I agree with the above - I am a dealer/developer. I have sold most of my properties as I think the UK housing market is going to "correct" I paid £13,250 for my first house! The amount of money the bank etc will lend is just silly if not morally irresponsible True there is huge demand but interest rates are much higher now and people with a £400K house with a £200K mortgage probably felt pretty secure but if the value goes down my £100K and he mortgage up by 50% then maybe not... Nothern Rock, Spain , US etc have all had mega problems and I believe the UK will as well although not as bad I may be wrong but I have zero debt and no regrets about selling up... But haven't we been thinking its going to correct for the best part of the last 20 years ? I think the fundamental issue is much simpler than many have stated. Supply & Demand. Demand has risen substantially as the population has increased. I don't think it is population increase that is fueling demand, it's the disfunctional nature of society.
There's a lot more single / seperated people living on their own compared to 40 years ago.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 28, 2023 10:19:16 GMT
it corrected in 2008 and I am still recovering from it....
yes many factors at play here but I certainly foresee a short-term correction - if I knew exactly I would be very wealthy and sadly I'm not
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Oct 28, 2023 10:36:27 GMT
I don't think it is population increase that is fueling demand, it's the dysfunctional nature of society.
There's a lot more single / separated people living on their own compared to 40 years ago.
agreed and if you go back 40 years when mum or dad got elderly they came and lived with you, in one of the bedrooms that the kids that have left the nest used. It was common years ago to have multiple generations in a property, and indeed if I look at the 1921 census my house had 4 adults living in it ( from the ages it didn't look like 2 generations of the same family). Thinking back a few older men I knew "lodged" with a family rather than having a property of their own and again this was normal, indeed genteel elderly people often lived in hotels ( think Fawlty towers ) now you have people and I have friend in this situation a big 4-5 bed house with a bedroom used as a sewing whatever room for her, a snug for him with TV etc etc people wanting more and more space
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 28, 2023 10:56:02 GMT
According to ONS, and Rightmove
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 28, 2023 13:32:10 GMT
Overall I agree with the above - I am a dealer/developer. I have sold most of my properties as I think the UK housing market is going to "correct" I paid £13,250 for my first house! The amount of money the bank etc will lend is just silly if not morally irresponsible True there is huge demand but interest rates are much higher now and people with a £400K house with a £200K mortgage probably felt pretty secure but if the value goes down my £100K and he mortgage up by 50% then maybe not... Nothern Rock, Spain , US etc have all had mega problems and I believe the UK will as well although not as bad I may be wrong but I have zero debt and no regrets about selling up... But haven't we been thinking its going to correct for the best part of the last 20 years ? I think the fundamental issue is much simpler than many have stated. Supply & Demand. Demand has risen substantially as the population has increased.Can't disagree with the view the 'supply and demand' are out of kilter: as a mostly free market economy that is the inevitable (most significant) root cause of market imbalance leading to higher prices for goods or services. However the second bit laying the demand side at the door of 'increased population' is I would suggest too simplistic. 1. We have an aging population demographic. Form 1980 to 2020, the life expectancy of males has gone from (slightly less than) 71 to (just over) 79. And for females from just under 77 to 83. So a significant part of population increase is driven by increased life expectancy, in turn leading to a more elderly population. As far as housing market goes, this demographic trend is a double whammy: it is significantly contributes to 'increased population', and at the same time is a drag on release of larger housing units onto the market - they tend to hang around in the family home. 2. The trend for people to remain single - as in either not married or cohabiting with a partner - until later in life, or indeed making it a permanent life choice. 3. And then of course unlike the manufacture of widgets, or indeed smart phones, there are significant regulatory/political constraints that throttle the supply side i.e. its not simply a case of "demand outstrips supply" as if the supply side was in some sense naturally constrained such that it couldn't keep up. The biggest constraints on the supply side are purely political and therefore adjustable. And of course the occasional mad cap political interventions designed to garner short term political good will by stoking the demand side while singularly failing to do anything about the the artificial - as in political/regulatory - supply side constraints. Which can only ever have one outcome.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 28, 2023 14:05:28 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 28, 2023 16:14:16 GMT
A chart going back to 1951 ? I'm sure you can do better than that. Still even though it flattens the curve you can see around 10 million growth this centaury. That's quite a lot. Sadly, due to the hot potato status, I wonder if it has discouraged any serious planning in this area? Not just for houses but for all service and physical infrastructure.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 28, 2023 16:33:46 GMT
But haven't we been thinking its going to correct for the best part of the last 20 years ? I think the fundamental issue is much simpler than many have stated. Supply & Demand. Demand has risen substantially as the population has increased. I don't think it is population increase that is fueling demand, it's the disfunctional nature of society.
There's a lot more single / seperated people living on their own compared to 40 years ago.
10 million (using RegMe's figures) is not insignificant. I suggest for both those reasons.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 28, 2023 16:41:57 GMT
I don't think it is population increase that is fueling demand, it's the disfunctional nature of society.
There's a lot more single / seperated people living on their own compared to 40 years ago.
10 million (using RegMe's figures) is not insignificant. I suggest for both those reasons. Maybe a lot of much happier people not living in bad relationships or multi generational households with all the tensions that can bring.
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