adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Dec 27, 2023 16:56:13 GMT
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Post by mostlywrong on Dec 27, 2023 21:18:00 GMT
I was having some fun with a computer that has given up the ghost when I clicked on your comment.
Now, I am sitting here reading the odds and thinking (hard) that SkyBet is offering 8/1 on Jan to Mar 24. That means that I put down £1 and stand a chance of getting £8 back.
Apr to Jun 24 is just 2/1 (£1 down and get £2 back if successful).
Are either of those gambles worth it?
Why didn't my school teach me gambling odds (and computers...) 
I don't understand all of that so back to Rufus and Ubuntu...
MW
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Dec 27, 2023 22:33:56 GMT
Are either of those gambles worth it? No. (the only thing I understand about gambling is that the bookie is the only winner)
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Post by keith1 on Dec 29, 2023 1:12:09 GMT
A Labour win is almost certain, so certainly worth a punt.
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 29, 2023 2:20:20 GMT
I was having some fun with a computer that has given up the ghost when I clicked on your comment.
Now, I am sitting here reading the odds and thinking (hard) that SkyBet is offering 8/1 on Jan to Mar 24. That means that I put down £1 and stand a chance of getting £8 back.
Apr to Jun 24 is just 2/1 (£1 down and get £2 back if successful).
Are either of those gambles worth it?
Why didn't my school teach me gambling odds (and computers...)
I don't understand all of that so back to Rufus and Ubuntu...
MW
For a winning bet, you also get your stake returned. So, in your first example, you'd get £9 back and, in your second, £3 back. The first example, 8/1 is terrible value! At the time of writing, you can get 99/1 on Betfair Exchange for the same bet, a General Election Jan-Mar 2024. www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.218024805The punters believe a Jan-Mar 2024 GE is a non-starter. If you believe otherwise, this would be a superb bet to stick a couple of quid on! In fact, I couldn't resist at those odds, so I've just stuck a quid on and achieved an outrageous 109/1 odds!! I'll either take out £110 or lose a quid - that's my kind of bet! It's always worth paying attention to the overround. The overround on this particular market (a measure of the current backing-to-laying spread) is still over 106% (again, at the time of writing), so the overall odds haven't balanced out to their best value yet. When it reaches much closer to 100%, the market has matured and you'll get the best value odds. Or you're free to go in right now and offer your own odds to see if someone will take them. That is the process by which the market matures and the overround eventually trends towards 100%. If it's less than 101%, you'll at least be getting a fair, decent value bet. The overround can be seen in the title line of the table, the percentage shown on the left hand side. [EDIT: only visible on the desktop website, not displayed on the mobile version]
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 29, 2023 2:48:46 GMT
A Labour win is almost certain, so certainly worth a punt. Is it though? You'll only get something like 7 to 1 on, so you'll have to wager £70 to probably gain a tenner but possibly lose your £70. These "near certainties" are not my kind of bet personally, but each to their own. 
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,993
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Post by adrianc on Dec 29, 2023 9:00:50 GMT
A Labour win is almost certain, so certainly worth a punt. Is it though? You'll only get something like 7 to 1 on, so you'll have to wager £70 to probably gain a tenner but possibly lose your £70. These "near certainties" are not my kind of bet personally, but each to their own. Probability of Labour majority - 97% Probability of Labour largest party - 99% Con - low 42 seats, predict 120, high 235 Lab - low 342, predict 459, high 539 Yeh, I'd call that "almost certain". 326 is, of course, a majority - so it seems nearer to a 100% chance of a majority, if the lowest expectation is 342.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 29, 2023 9:46:59 GMT
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlProbability of Labour majority - 97% Probability of Labour largest party - 99% Con - low 42 seats, predict 120, high 235 Lab - low 342, predict 459, high 539 Yeh, I'd call that "almost certain".326 is, of course, a majority - so it seems nearer to a 100% chance of a majority, if the lowest expectation is 342. Where's Neil Kinnock when you need him
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 29, 2023 10:03:04 GMT
Is it though? You'll only get something like 7 to 1 on, so you'll have to wager £70 to probably gain a tenner but possibly lose your £70. These "near certainties" are not my kind of bet personally, but each to their own. Probability of Labour majority - 97% Probability of Labour largest party - 99% Con - low 42 seats, predict 120, high 235 Lab - low 342, predict 459, high 539 Yeh, I'd call that "almost certain". 326 is, of course, a majority - so it seems nearer to a 100% chance of a majority, if the lowest expectation is 342. the only problem with these predictions.....is that nearly all electoral predictions over the last god knows how many years have, in one way or another, turned out to be spectacularly wrong. The first most obvious point is that it seems that there is a permanent underprediction of the actual vote going to the conservatives or political 'right wing'. Except when Theresa May went to the polls on what seemed a banker only to get a horrible shock. So while I personally agree that right now, if an election was held tomorrow, I'm confident that the Tories will not be in power afterwards, I would not be confident that the pre-election polls would be accurate in the size of that. And as time marches on, there is always the potential for the gap to close: e.g. Keir Starmer to have his own 'bacon sandwich' moment.
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,993
Likes: 5,134
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Post by adrianc on Dec 29, 2023 10:33:17 GMT
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlProbability of Labour majority - 97% Probability of Labour largest party - 99% Con - low 42 seats, predict 120, high 235 Lab - low 342, predict 459, high 539 Yeh, I'd call that "almost certain". 326 is, of course, a majority - so it seems nearer to a 100% chance of a majority, if the lowest expectation is 342. the only problem with these predictions.....is that nearly all electoral predictions over the last god knows how many years have, in one way or another, turned out to be spectacularly wrong. The first most obvious point is that it seems that there is a permanent underprediction of the actual vote going to the conservatives or political 'right wing'. Except when Theresa May went to the polls on what seemed a banker only to get a horrible shock. So while I personally agree that right now, if an election was held tomorrow, I'm confident that the Tories will not be in power afterwards, I would not be confident that the pre-election polls would be accurate in the size of that. And as time marches on, there is always the potential for the gap to close: e.g. Keir Starmer to have his own 'bacon sandwich' moment. ...and that's where the couple of percent come in, of course. "A week is a long time in politics"Each week must feel very, VERY long for Sunak right now. This week has included the increase in earnings for family visas being cancelled - then Sunak saying it wasn't being cancelled, just delayed. It has also included the Home Office announcing a crackdown on drink-spiking, followed immediately by the Home Secretary joking about drugging his wife to keep her pliant. It's included the Home Office denying asylum to people over one of the very few safe and legal routes in the face of overwhelming evidence, while attempting to deport people born here who've never even gone on holiday abroad, at the same time as trying to evict asylum seekers from hotel accommodation over Xmas. It's included the "brexit benefit" of imperial measures being rejected by 99% of respondents to a consultation, followed by "pints of champagne" being waved around unrealistically. It's included a recalled MP (and former deputy leader of the commons) who's never had more than 40% of his constituents vote for him complaining it's unfair he's been recalled by a minority following his conviction for sexual bullying. And that's a quiet week because of Xmas. I wonder what next week will bring?
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Post by bernythedolt on Dec 29, 2023 12:16:12 GMT
Is it though? You'll only get something like 7 to 1 on, so you'll have to wager £70 to probably gain a tenner but possibly lose your £70. These "near certainties" are not my kind of bet personally, but each to their own. Probability of Labour majority - 97% Probability of Labour largest party - 99% Con - low 42 seats, predict 120, high 235 Lab - low 342, predict 459, high 539 Yeh, I'd call that "almost certain".326 is, of course, a majority - so it seems nearer to a 100% chance of a majority, if the lowest expectation is 342. Hehe, I don't disagree, but I wasn't questioning the likelihood of a Labour win. I was questioning the second assertion, that it's "certainly worth a punt". At the odds on offer, personally I'd say not. I thought that was self-evident in my post, but maybe not.
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