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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2024 8:35:25 GMT
So the latest test firing from Vanguard basically went plop into the water. This is the second test firing of the UK fleet since 2016 (inc). That one also went astray.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 21, 2024 9:07:50 GMT
They've just had somebody with clue on R4 Today. (I forget who, and it's not yet on iPlayer - it was about the last item before 9am)
Sounds like the missile itself did what it was meant to do - but human error had put the wrong destination or calibration in, so they hit the big red self-destruct button. Same last time.
Apparently the Yanks and Russians have lots of similar errors, too.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 21, 2024 9:11:46 GMT
Like this one youtu.be/d5nZ-SwngnEOur human history contains so many failed firing from mini rockets to space one, spent so much money on science, engineering and their products and services, no guarantee success on every round.
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toffeeboy
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Post by toffeeboy on Feb 21, 2024 11:02:39 GMT
They've just had somebody with clue on R4 Today. (I forget who, and it's not yet on iPlayer - it was about the last item before 9am) Sounds like the missile itself did what it was meant to do - but human error had put the wrong destination or calibration in, so they hit the big red self-destruct button. Same last time. Apparently the Yanks and Russians have lots of similar errors, too. So we can fire the rockets but don't know what we will be aiming at. Same for USA and Russia
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2024 12:28:23 GMT
They've just had somebody with clue on R4 Today. (I forget who, and it's not yet on iPlayer - it was about the last item before 9am) Sounds like the missile itself did what it was meant to do - but human error had put the wrong destination or calibration in, so they hit the big red self-destruct button. Same last time. Apparently the Yanks and Russians have lots of similar errors, too. Call me a cynic but: 1. Looked at as a total system, if it fails 2 out 2 (or frankly even 1 out 2 or 3 or 4), then its still a fail. Regardless of the reason. 2. The original news was suggesting that - not at all surprisingly - they weren't letting on as to the reason. I don't think they did for the 2016 one either. 3. Someone coming onto R4 and saying they know what happened if they are not an official spokesman is purely speculating: the chances of a crew member telling someone else the reason so they can go on R4 is pretty remote (though not entirely impossible). 4. The idea that they regularly get the targeting input wrong on an ICBM I suggest is ridiculous. Especially if its even under test firing conditions, not pressure of doing it for real. if that was the case they'd fix the system so it was rather difficult for it to happen. I'd also be surprised if protocol didn't require at least two people to input and check targetting information. Call me daft, but the possibility of running around in a sub with ICBMs which have a tendency to randomly target seems a bit unlikely. Wouldn't go down well with the natives if you took out New York instead of say Tripoli. 5. I see that the BBC is currently reporting that the booster rockets failed. Albeit that is being reported by The Sun, apparently, so unless its attributed its probably about as reliable as some random coming onto R4 and proclaiming that some matelot punched in the wrong numbers. I may well be proved wrong, and they may even put that out as the reason in order not to have to admit that it was a hard system failure. but I'm a cynic. £17m a test firing and someone can't figure out how to input the targetting parameters into the system.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 21, 2024 13:07:26 GMT
The question is, did they pay enough money to ensure a successful test? The MOD doesn’t hand out money easily and might not understand what exactly are needed for successful operation?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2024 13:52:13 GMT
It's worth noting that the Trident missile inventory is shared / pooled between the US and the UK.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Feb 21, 2024 14:10:56 GMT
wonder if this is another issue caused by the septics using weird measurements
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2024 14:23:39 GMT
It's worth noting that the Trident missile inventory is shared / pooled between the US and the UK. Mostly. The warheads on missiles deployed by the UK are of course UK warheads. And you don't take the warhead off as a regular thing. But yes, the missiles themselves are shared. And so if there are issues with the missiles deployed on Trident, there is no reason to suppose these are not equally likely on US SSBN deployments. Except if the two nations have their missiles on a different maintenance cycle length. I spent a few weeks working at Kings Bay when Vanguard was out there for her first test firing. It's home to quite a lot of vultures (don't ask me which 'brand'). To my mind there is quite an eerie atmosphere to a place like that, where you can find yourself driving behind a big flat bed lorry carrying a big **** off ICBM, while vultures are looking on or staring at you. Had I been aware of the phrase "‘Now I Am Become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds" it would very probably have come in to my head at certain times.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 21, 2024 14:44:06 GMT
bracknellboy, I didn’t know you travel to those kinds of site from time to time. I hope your appearance didn’t curse the test that time. 🤣
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2024 15:29:02 GMT
And you don't take the warhead off as a regular thing. No, you don't. Nor do you include a warhead when doing a missile test firing...
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2024 16:09:46 GMT
And you don't take the warhead off as a regular thing. No, you don't. Nor do you include a warhead when doing a missile test firing... that bit of course is true.... :-) But wasn't quite what I meant. Rather that at some point the missiles become UK only, for a period. The fact though that they are genuinely "randomly" taken from Kings Bay stock originally would certainly suggest that all are on the exact same maintenance cycle. EDIT: Actually I think the story is potentially a bit more interesting than the above. I know virtually zero about the loading and unloading procedures, but from bits I'm reading it seems possible that the missiles and warhead are de-mated after each patrol (at Coulport).
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Feb 21, 2024 16:43:02 GMT
This a not just an embarrassment. I would say this weakens our defence against Russia. The value of these weapons is 99% deterrent and 1% usage. If they ain't going to work when the PM gives the order, they are an expensive waste of time. But its worse than that. The reduced effectiveness of our deterrent will already be factored into the Russian's calculation when it comes to .... I dunno.... dropping a few big conventional weapons over Britain or a nuke in the north sea. Unlikely I think but more likely than it was thanks to our armed forces that badly fcuked up.
Lord West gave a different theory than Adrian's R4 guest, about the test not being worthwhile as it behaves differently with a warhead attached: "Live active missiles with warheads, we know will work and let’s hope we never have to use them."
The only answer us mortals are ever going to be given as to why this test failed is one which doesn't hugely harm our deterrent. We will not know for decades and decades whether or not there is a systemic problem.
Finally if this really was another case of "wrong coords" put in - a lot of people in charge of process and systems need to be sacked (not the person at the bottom of the food chain who actually made the mistake)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 21, 2024 16:47:07 GMT
They've just had somebody with clue on R4 Today. (I forget who, and it's not yet on iPlayer - it was about the last item before 9am) Sounds like the missile itself did what it was meant to do - but human error had put the wrong destination or calibration in, so they hit the big red self-destruct button. Same last time. Apparently the Yanks and Russians have lots of similar errors, too. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001wh7d (starts at 2:49, about 4min long) The guy they were talking to is Chris Parry - introduced as "Strategic forecaster and former NATO commander" - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Parry_(Royal_Navy_officer)"Calibration or telemetry error that meant the test was aborted, human or procedural error, seems that false information was given to the system".
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 21, 2024 16:56:30 GMT
The value of these weapons is 99% deterrent and 1% usage. 100% correct, but don't forget it applies to every country that has nuclear weapons
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