blender
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Post by blender on Apr 19, 2015 17:56:16 GMT
I can't remember his precise words, because a lot was discussed, but Luke Jooste (in charge of property at FC) told me and a roomful of other investors on Friday that he thinks the first bad one will occur pretty soon. If I remember correctly I'm pretty sure he was referring to a specific loan rather than just meaning generally that "it's bound to happen sooner rather than later." Although one bad loan is pretty good out of £45 million of property loans in 12 months, even if most of the loans are still ongoing. By the way, that's all funded by individual investors and no institutional money - even the whole loans. I found that quite astounding. Neil Hi Neil, I wonder what the purpose of your post is? Of course it could not be a scare story about FC intended to make forum users find out who 4thway are and possibly purchase your valued advice on the subject. No of course you would not do that. Are you going to post similar on the FC forum?
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Post by 4thway on Apr 19, 2015 18:06:21 GMT
I can't remember his precise words, because a lot was discussed, but Luke Jooste (in charge of property at FC) told me and a roomful of other investors on Friday that he thinks the first bad one will occur pretty soon. If I remember correctly I'm pretty sure he was referring to a specific loan rather than just meaning generally that "it's bound to happen sooner rather than later." Although one bad loan is pretty good out of £45 million of property loans in 12 months, even if most of the loans are still ongoing. By the way, that's all funded by individual investors and no institutional money - even the whole loans. I found that quite astounding. Neil Hi Neil, I wonder what the purpose of your post is? Of course it could not be a scare story about FC intended to make forum users find out who 4thway are and possibly purchase your valued advice on the subject. No of course you would not do that. Are you going to post similar on the FC forum? Huh? How can one bad loan in £45 million be a scare story? I honestly don't get it. I thought I was responding to the previous few comments appropriately and adding something useful. Did I miss their point?
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blender
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Post by blender on Apr 19, 2015 18:49:36 GMT
Sorry Neil, I thought that as an commercial advisor on P2P operators you might understand the problem. When you post, you post as a representative of 4thway - not as an individual in a debate. So I ask 'why is 4th way making this post? What is the purpose?' I suppose that is a question for the moderators.
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Post by norfolkblue on Apr 20, 2015 10:02:49 GMT
Maybe it is for the mods, but I don't think there's any conflinct of interest , so the only argument is that it could be a 'sales post' - but if it is, it's very subtle and adds valuable information ( I didn't realise there was no institutional money going into these loans, and find it interesting).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 20, 2015 10:23:52 GMT
What I find interesting (assuming it's true) is that the head of property loans at Funding Circle thinks that selective disclosure of information about a loan likely to go bad is ok.
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Post by oldnick on Apr 20, 2015 12:03:45 GMT
Maybe it is for the mods, but I don't think there's any conflinct of interest , so the only argument is that it could be a 'sales post' - but if it is, it's very subtle and adds valuable information ( I didn't realise there was no institutional money going into these loans, and find it interesting). Representatives can be a valuable source of information, so the mods take the view that it's enough that you're aware of the contributors' status, eg. representative, to make your own judgement about the value of their posts.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Apr 20, 2015 14:34:42 GMT
I wonder if anyone at Fingers Crossed is sweating over the 4 large property loan auctions that are due to end tomorrow and whether they'll fill in time. By my reckoning, there's another £250k needed across the 4 of them, although a couple look closer (89% and 82% full) than the other two (both 74% full). Hoping we may be in for some enhanced CB later this week...!
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baldpate
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Post by baldpate on Apr 20, 2015 16:19:35 GMT
I think that 12201 will just about make it under it's own steam, and that 12202 will be assisted over the line with FC support (this is a relatively small loan, as these loans go, so the current shortfall in £s is actually less than 12201, even though the percentage shortfall is larger).
I expect 12199 to fall quite a way short, so I don't foresee FC supporting it - this is the one I expect to see relisted with CB, although FC might try the old split-and-relist-as-two-loans trick (since this is only the first in a big-ish series, and hence FC might want to save the CB for later tranches).
12207 looks doubtful as well, although it might benefit from a last minute pick up. Unsure about this one, or about what FC will do if it fails to fill.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 16:59:04 GMT
12201 should make it, but the rest...
I notice that there have been two interesting A rates in the last 20 closing bids at 13.6% and 14.2%, are these harbingers of good times or just a couple of outliers?
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Apr 20, 2015 17:49:35 GMT
12201 should make it, but the rest... I notice that there have been two interesting A rates in the last 20 closing bids at 13.6% and 14.2%, are these harbingers of good times or just a couple of outliers? Early closers?
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Post by 4thway on Apr 20, 2015 18:11:29 GMT
What I find interesting (assuming it's true) is that the head of property loans at Funding Circle thinks that selective disclosure of information about a loan likely to go bad is ok. Hi registerme I think under the circumstances it was probably okay. The question is how bad or how certain does his information/suspicions/analysis have to be before it is unacceptable to make a passing comment to a company like mine rather than inform the lenders? However, in this case it looks like lenders have been informed regularly about issues with this borrower, because Luke Jooste just sent me more info saying he was referring to this one: forum.fundingcircle.com/forum/talk-to-fellow-members/all-about-lending/9849-property-development-in-harrogate-%7C-loan-6762-and-loan-7419He added that the worst they expect now is that the repayment will be 60 days late, but the loan will be repaid in full, including interest.
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Post by 4thway on Apr 20, 2015 18:18:19 GMT
Sorry Neil, I thought that as an commercial advisor on P2P operators you might understand the problem. When you post, you post as a representative of 4thway - not as an individual in a debate. So I ask 'why is 4th way making this post? What is the purpose?' I suppose that is a question for the moderators. Hi blender I totally appreciate your scepticism and you're absolutely right to have extra scepticism when it's a company posting on a discussion board. But when I signed up here I also emailed the moderators to explain who I was (at the time I technically didn't have to do that by a strict interpretation of the rules) and to say that my sole intention was to post useful messages. I've expanded on that to include a few messages that I find witty (although no one else does). But I don't intend to expand my types of message any further! I do occasionally link to an article on the 4thWay website, but only if it seriously adds something useful to the ongoing discussion, e.g. relevant insider information. I guess that's as "adverty" as I get.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 20, 2015 19:35:46 GMT
What I find interesting (assuming it's true) is that the head of property loans at Funding Circle thinks that selective disclosure of information about a loan likely to go bad is ok. Hi registerme I think under the circumstances it was probably okay. The question is how bad or how certain does his information/suspicions/analysis have to be before it is unacceptable to make a passing comment to a company like mine rather than inform the lenders? However, in this case it looks like lenders have been informed regularly about issues with this borrower, because Luke Jooste just sent me more info saying he was referring to this one: forum.fundingcircle.com/forum/talk-to-fellow-members/all-about-lending/9849-property-development-in-harrogate-%7C-loan-6762-and-loan-7419He added that the worst they expect now is that the repayment will be 60 days late, but the loan will be repaid in full, including interest. Thank you for the added colour. A couple of quick (and unrelated) comments... * The official FC forums are, frankly, a joke (not your responsibility, but if that is how FC plan on communicating with lenders they need to up their game). * In your original post you used the term "investor". I consider myself to be an investor in the loans offered on the FC platform, but I think you meant "investor in Funding Circle". Again, not your responsibility, but timely disclosure of pertinent information to the market is the sort of thing the FCA will be interested in as and when they come to review P2P lending.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 20, 2015 20:03:04 GMT
I think we already knew about the Harrogate loan issues (and most recently the one where FC were struggling to pay the extra interest to investors .. not because they didn't have it, they took it out of the extra top-up tranche, but because the system didn't know how to handle any payments beyond those originally scheduled). That is not really a 'bad' loan, just late.
Most of the property loans are A or A+, so FC don't have much leeway for a real failure .. about 1 in 100, iirc, although that is really the loss percentage expected, so net of any recoveries. Personally, unless someone is doing a really crummy job &/or the property market craters, I would hope the A+ property loans would do rather better than the (unsecured) A+ SME loans have. [Specification creep of certain London megabuilds notwithstanding. 8>.]
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Apr 21, 2015 8:23:08 GMT
FC Property Finance has piled in this morning to help shove both 12199 and 12207 over the line
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