arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 27, 2015 17:18:34 GMT
Must try that again. 16813 with 1% CB just appeared! Just goes to show what I know. Although the Autobid change isn't implemented yet, and this is a very big loan.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 27, 2015 17:42:13 GMT
That autobid change isn't going to help the large loans - the 65% cap was only being hit on loans <£150k IMO, ones larger than that could soak up all the autobid money FC could dredge up and still not get to 65% of the total. £M property loans need a cashback nudge .. although with autobid unleashed to 100%, I guess we might see £150k-£200k first tranches with no CB just to get all the numpty money at no cost, before they go fish for the rest at 1%, 2%, or in at least one case (Fulham?) 3% cashback. We shall see. I wonder how much flexibility Funding Criteria have one deciding the tranche sizes to fit the appetite(s) of the lenders/autobiddies.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 27, 2015 17:50:05 GMT
That autobid change isn't going to help the large loans - the 65% cap was only being hit on loans <£150k IMO, ones larger than that could soak up all the autobid money FC could dredge up and still not get to 65% of the total. £M property loans need a cashback nudge .. although with autobid unleashed to 100%, I guess we might see £150k-£200k first tranches with no CB just to get all the numpty money at no cost, before they go fish for the rest at 1%, 2%, or in at least one case (Fulham?) 3% cashback. We shall see. I wonder how much flexibility Funding Criteria have one deciding the tranche sizes to fit the appetite(s) of the lenders/autobiddies. Right, so basically the Autobid change is just so that they can fill the most unattractive, small loans without having to resort to cashback or FC Finance?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 27, 2015 17:56:38 GMT
Yep, got it in one. 8>.
This is not, of course, what the spin doctor (nurse?) said.
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acky
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Post by acky on Oct 27, 2015 18:25:51 GMT
That autobid change isn't going to help the large loans - the 65% cap was only being hit on loans <£150k IMO, ones larger than that could soak up all the autobid money FC could dredge up and still not get to 65% of the total. £M property loans need a cashback nudge .. although with autobid unleashed to 100%, I guess we might see £150k-£200k first tranches with no CB just to get all the numpty money at no cost, before they go fish for the rest at 1%, 2%, or in at least one case (Fulham?) 3% cashback. We shall see. I wonder how much flexibility Funding Criteria have one deciding the tranche sizes to fit the appetite(s) of the lenders/autobiddies. Not sure that Autobid is as impotent as that. I've just analysed bids on 16718 (the £325k property loan which looks like it will confound all our (wishful) predictions of failure without CB). The pattern of bids makes it quite easy to spot the major Autobid sorties. It basically had two stabs at it, one immediately on listing on afternoon of 23rd and another in early hours of 24th. This certainly got to 62%+, if not more, and there are one or two further bursts of activity which may be Autobid, so I am pretty sure it got to 65% on this one. I feel sure it could dredge up more if it needed to, but it looks like there's enough "numpty money" (love that!) to get it over the line. Profile of bids, of course, is very different with the flippers clever investors conspicuous by their absence, but quite a few £2,000 bids (one 3x£2,000), obviously to hold.
Further, working on some macro-numbers: The total loanbook currently with retail investors is £404m, on which monthly payments (capital plus interest) are £11.6m plus any property loans which repay in the month (average scheduled for next 5 months is £2.4m (I exclude the £12m due to repay in April)). I’m therefore going to assume £14m being available from monthly repayments, or about £3.2m a week. Less than 10% of this would be required to fill a £300k loan, and I’m sure that Autobiddies account for a lot more than 10% of the total portfolio. So I’m in no doubt that Autobid could fill 100% of a large loan if it was directed to do so - this of course ignores all the other loans, large and small, which need to be filled as well. But I think this shows that it’s just a matter of FC properly organising and prioritising Autobid, rather than any structural inability to fill a large loan (I do feel Autobid money is often "wasted" on good loans that flippers clever investors would take). And, of course, there's new money coming in all the time - retail investors are taking about £24m a month, which far exceeds the repayments and interest, as I have shown above.
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Post by aloanatlast on Oct 27, 2015 20:33:27 GMT
But I think this shows that it’s just a matter of FC properly organising and prioritising Autobid Question of just how shameless they're prepared to be in making Autobid take the junk nobody else wants.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 27, 2015 20:54:36 GMT
Acky, I agree with your numbers, more or less, but I don't think filling one or two £300k loans a week is going to hack it, and they are either going to have to choke the pipeline, or else ditch the 'fill everything to the same %age' behaviour (which I can still remember being added, so I guess someone knows how to ditch it again). Whichever way they slice it, I suspect autobodge will continue to penalise its users the way it always has ('numpty tax'), one way or another. The one thing they could do (as suggested before and elsewhere) is give it first crack at new auctions, so it doesn't always get sloppy seconds on anything popular (like small Es) .. but then that's not what they want it for.
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Post by aloanatlast on Oct 27, 2015 21:30:01 GMT
Another of the levers mentioned is allocating more loans to the WL market. So they can now use a two-pronged attack - just throttle the flow until Autobid fills everything.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 27, 2015 22:58:58 GMT
Another of the levers mentioned is allocating more loans to the WL market. So they can now use a two-pronged attack - just throttle the flow until Autobid fills everything.
They seem to be doing that while they try to squeeze the cash back out of the system.
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Post by aloanatlast on Oct 28, 2015 16:01:05 GMT
Seems like they're showing great faith in the new Autobid by launching a £450K A+ without cashback, even at 10%.
They might have done better to have asked the borrower for 8% and an extra 2% on the fee to use for cashback.
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min
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Post by min on Oct 28, 2015 16:04:23 GMT
Seems like they're showing great faith in the new Autobid by launching a £450K A+ without cashback, even at 10%.
84% LTV No thanks
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acky
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Post by acky on Oct 28, 2015 16:16:40 GMT
Seems like they're showing great faith in the new Autobid by launching a £450K A+ without cashback, even at 10%.
84% LTV No thanks And it's the first tranche of a £1.5m loan. Later tranches will need CB, so who's jumping in now? Not I!
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Oct 28, 2015 16:17:12 GMT
Seems like they're showing great faith in the new Autobid by launching a £450K A+ without cashback, even at 10%.
84% LTV No thanks Maybe, but I believe the rate is high enough that this tranche should fill easily. But do we think it might come back flaunting splashback for the next bite?
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 28, 2015 17:05:16 GMT
Don't forget that the LTV includes the interest (45k). The real LTV is lower and the loan is safe for some time because even FC cannot fail to pay the interest.
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grahamg
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Post by grahamg on Oct 28, 2015 18:54:11 GMT
...and some 2nd charges, I wouldn't touch it at 12% on SS (et al). But with £1.566mm required in fairly short order, I might take some of the cb they'll need to give on tranche2/3 as some of the previous 10% A+ loans are now selling at 1% markup. (I sold a piece of Islington at +1.8 recently) Edit, must learn to type quicker. £1.566 M secured by leasehold shrapnel No No No
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