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Post by ratrace on Dec 27, 2015 19:49:17 GMT
I expected to see rates tumbling on the SM over the Xmas break and the number of parts on offer falling as buyers fell over themselves looking for any value given that there's nothing to buy on the PM. This isn't really happening, although an increase in volume of SME sales at a premium has been reported. I am tracking, for each grade, the number of parts for sale and the rate of the 100th, 250th, 500th and 1,000th part ranked in descending order of Buyer Rate. Comparing this evening against yesterday morning, the number of parts for sale in every grade has gone up and what little movement there has been in the rates of the above benchmark loan parts has been predominantly marginally upwards!
My monitoring is with the intention of throwing in some overpriced bargain SME parts at the right time hoping to get the best rate over this festive period, but clearly I am not alone in this objective, hence the number of parts actually going up and the rates refusing to soften. lf you have any 20+ month old D loans you are willing to sell at par, then l may be willing to take a interest in them. 
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 27, 2015 21:21:54 GMT
Here's the last few days data .. A+ through E, part #500 (parts of small size .. <£50 iirc),
20/12/2015 00:01 9.7 10.1 11.4 12.2 14.0 18.0
21/12/2015 00:01 9.5 10.1 11.4 12.3 14.0 18.0
22/12/2015 00:01 9.4 10.1 11.3 12.3 14.0 18.0
23/12/2015 00:00 9.4 10.0 11.3 12.2 14.0 18.0
24/12/2015 00:01 9.3 10.1 11.3 12.2 14.0 18.0
25/12/2015 00:01 9.2 10.0 11.3 12.2 14.0 18.0
26/12/2015 00:01 9.2 10.0 11.3 12.2 14.0 18.0
27/12/2015 00:00 9.2 10.0 11.3 12.2 14.0 18.0
so apart from CB stripped A+s and As offered at fat discounts (mostly now sold out), not much change.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 27, 2015 21:42:21 GMT
...although an increase in volume of SME sales at a premium has been reported. Huge increase. Today has been my best ever day by far. I haven't been here for long, and I have only been actively offering my SME loans for a few weeks, but I have sold so many today that I have seller's regret (if that is a thing). I am tracking, for each grade, the number of parts for sale and the rate of the 100th, 250th, 500th and 1,000th part ranked in descending order of Buyer Rate. Comparing this evening against yesterday morning, the number of parts for sale in every grade has gone up and what little movement there has been in the rates of the above benchmark loan parts has been predominantly marginally upwards! I see something similar over the last few days, but I also see a reasonable fall both in the average rate, and number of loans for sale since the 14th. EDIT: Fall in rates is for both SME and Prop Dev loans
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acky
Posts: 481 
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Post by acky on Dec 28, 2015 21:24:27 GMT
I expected to see rates tumbling on the SM over the Xmas break and the number of parts on offer falling as buyers fell over themselves looking for any value given that there's nothing to buy on the PM. This isn't really happening, although an increase in volume of SME sales at a premium has been reported. I am tracking, for each grade, the number of parts for sale and the rate of the 100th, 250th, 500th and 1,000th part ranked in descending order of Buyer Rate. Comparing this evening against yesterday morning, the number of parts for sale in every grade has gone up and what little movement there has been in the rates of the above benchmark loan parts has been predominantly marginally upwards!
My monitoring is with the intention of throwing in some overpriced bargain SME parts at the right time hoping to get the best rate over this festive period, but clearly I am not alone in this objective, hence the number of parts actually going up and the rates refusing to soften. Patience - we are only 4 days into the festive period with probably 2-3 weeks before the PM is back up to speed the SM part pool will clear............ Well one more day of my patience has passed by and compared to 24 hours ago there is virtually no change in either the rates or the number of parts for sale (actually rates unchanged or microscopically UP and number of parts UP 1%). Folks are still reporting good sales, but these obviously continue to be at least replaced by more being placed on the market. I'm still sitting on my SME parts waiting for the market to move in the right direction and I am now seriously doubting that it will happen (oh dear, there goes my patience again!).
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 29, 2015 19:26:00 GMT
At last the number of parts for sale is falling - down 6% against this time yesterday, and rates are edging downwards, especially on Grade B.
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sl75
Posts: 2,092
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Post by sl75 on Dec 29, 2015 19:31:02 GMT
Somewhat inexplicably, total global sales on 25, 26, 27, 28 were about half the recent normal daily volume, despite the SM being the only place that repayments money could possibly go for much of that time - and then a marked pick-up in total global sales today (as well as my own personal sales volume).
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Dec 29, 2015 20:34:04 GMT
Somewhat inexplicably, total global sales on 25, 26, 27, 28 were about half the recent normal daily volume, despite the SM being the only place that repayments money could possibly go for much of that time - and then a marked pick-up in total global sales today (as well as my own personal sales volume). Yes, my experience agrees, sales of property loans at par picked up when the primary market restarted today. Looks like there is some control on Autobid which throttles it back on the SM when nothing is available on the PM.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 29, 2015 21:01:24 GMT
Somewhat inexplicably, total global sales on 25, 26, 27, 28 were about half the recent normal daily volume, despite the SM being the only place that repayments money could possibly go for much of that time - and then a marked pick-up in total global sales today (as well as my own personal sales volume). Yes, my experience agrees, sales of property loans at par picked up when the primary market restarted today. Looks like there is some control on Autobid which throttles it back on the SM when nothing is available on the PM. Which was more or less what I hypothesised over at p2pindependentforum.com/post/82021/thread, which nobody seemed to believe at the time.
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bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 29, 2015 21:30:20 GMT
Yes, my experience agrees, sales of property loans at par picked up when the primary market restarted today. Looks like there is some control on Autobid which throttles it back on the SM when nothing is available on the PM. Which was more or less what I hypothesised over at p2pindependentforum.com/post/82021/thread, which nobody seemed to believe at the time. It isn't that I don't want to believe you, as I would about almost everything FC. It is just that it seems like such an insane policy for FC to have coded. Maybe there is a limit on SM sales or something else which requires manual intervention? Or something else just like the correlation between violent crime and ice cream sales in Chicago, or between ice cream sales and shark attacks in Australia?
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 29, 2015 21:59:00 GMT
My simplistic view: The people who pull FC's strings will be demanding organic growth, and one of the key measures of this growth will be the total amount lent to the marketplace. So as a priority they want new money pumping into new loans in the PM, with the minimum amount syphoned off into the SM. This can be substantially achieved by throttling autobid. When I first joined FC, I imagined the SM as my "emergency exit" in case I needed cash quickly, but I was soon disappointed to realise that it is apparently not so. It's not quite Hotel California ("...you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave"), but rather I see it developing more akin to some conventional savings accounts where you get a great rate over a long term, but lose a chunk of interest if you leave prematurely. You may have to apply enough discount to make loan parts irresistible to manual bidders. The catch-22 is that if I had more confidence in the SM as an "emergency exit", then I would probably want to invest more through FC.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 29, 2015 22:17:13 GMT
My simplistic view: The people who pull FC's strings will be demanding organic growth, and one of the key measures of this growth will be the total amount lent to the marketplace. So as a priority they want new money pumping into new loans in the PM, with the minimum amount syphoned off into the SM. This can be substantially achieved by throttling autobid. When I first joined FC, I imagined the SM as my "emergency exit" in case I needed cash quickly, but I was soon disappointed to realise that it is apparently not so. It's not quite Hotel California ("...you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave"), but rather I see it developing more akin to some conventional savings accounts where you get a great rate over a long term, but lose a chunk of interest if you leave prematurely. You may have to apply enough discount to make loan parts irresistible to manual bidders. The catch-22 is that if I had more confidence in the SM as an "emergency exit", then I would probably want to invest more through FC. That is exactly what I think. This is heading towards 20% discount.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Dec 30, 2015 9:11:52 GMT
Yes, my experience agrees, sales of property loans at par picked up when the primary market restarted today. Looks like there is some control on Autobid which throttles it back on the SM when nothing is available on the PM. Which was more or less what I hypothesised over at p2pindependentforum.com/post/82021/thread, which nobody seemed to believe at the time. You was right. I believed you even if I did not post to say so. They are trying to maintain some (secret) balance between PM and SM, imo. Edit: I also think it is game over on the regular property cash back, and they want the 8% parts held so that they can sell new ones to the Autobidders. They may toss us the odd 2% bone in 2016.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Dec 30, 2015 10:43:44 GMT
deleted (moved)
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acky
Posts: 481
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Post by acky on Dec 30, 2015 10:52:21 GMT
You was right. I believed you even if I did not post to say so. They are trying to maintain some (secret) balance between PM and SM, imo. Edit: I also think it is game over on the regular property cash back, and they want the 8% parts held so that they can sell new ones to the Autobidders. They may toss us the odd 2% bone in 2016. Whether we get more property cash back is a question of supply and demand. If the supply of cash from investors exceeds demand from borrowers, then there will be no cash back - why would there be? In that scenario, I and others like me will withdraw their cash from the platform because better returns can be made elsewhere, which will therefore reduce supply back down. If demand exceeds supply, then FC will have to go back to offering cash back to bring back people like me. Simples! We saw cash back being progressively withdrawn during 2015 and then it came back again.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 30, 2015 11:04:11 GMT
Can anyone explain to me the situation regarding 17573 & 17808? Due first repayment today, yet for sale with no accrued interest. If first repayment had actually been made, the capital would be reduced, but it is'nt. Surely you cannot have it both ways? Should they be appearing for sale at all? (ie 'processing') You're right, it seems to be suffering from Flaky Computation. Both those loans are available on the SM and yet both do show as "processing" status. There are presently a vast number of loans in the "processing" state. I suspect that one of our Festive Chums computing processes is seriously lagging another as they try to catch up.
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