blender
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Post by blender on May 5, 2015 7:34:57 GMT
I sold one overnight at par. 12316 - recent first tranche. So not a total block.
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Post by thesnoop on May 5, 2015 14:59:46 GMT
It's been 3 weeks since I sold an A+ property loan part at par, sniff sniff .
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 6, 2015 8:03:29 GMT
Another one headed to a loving new home yesterday.
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rogerbu
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Post by rogerbu on May 6, 2015 11:13:05 GMT
Now I'm confused I had a 7.5% property loan with 5 LPs at par for sale for a month - didn't and haven't shifted.
Yesterday I put another 7.5% property loan with 8 LPs (similar principals) for sale at par. These all went overnight to 4 different buyers. This suggests that the autobid shifted them.
If so, what has the autobid process got against my initial LPs?
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fasty
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Post by fasty on May 6, 2015 11:24:36 GMT
Now I'm confused I had a 7.5% property loan with 5 LPs at par for sale for a month - didn't and haven't shifted. Yesterday I put another 7.5% property loan with 8 LPs (similar principals) for sale at par. These all went overnight to 4 different buyers. This suggests that the autobid shifted them. If so, what has the autobid process got against my initial LPs?Some time ago we observed a "feature" of the secondary market which caused recently-listed loan parts to sell quicker than ones listed previously. A sort of "Last-In-First-Out" (LIFO) process seemed to be happening. Very frustrating, although once you understood what was happening then potentially you could use it to your advantage simply by re-listing loan parts again and again. Now, we were assured by our Frolicking Chums that this problem had been resolved, and indeed things did seem to improve. But now and again.... well, I wonder if it's quite as "random" as we are led to beleive?
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blender
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Post by blender on May 6, 2015 11:48:49 GMT
Re-listing after expiry of the 14 days does not seem to work. We need more data.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on May 6, 2015 12:18:14 GMT
One thing I would note is that there are several unsold A+ loan parts with rates higher than the typical property loans of 8%. I wonder if autobid is now doing the sane thing and buying the best buyer rate available (for a given risk, and excluding any where the user already has [adequate] exposure) rather than merely ANY loan part with a buyer rate exceeding the configured minimum for the user. I noticed that rates available on auctions (at least during days 2-6) have increased, which will allow more autobid money through to the primary market, and if it's being more selective about secondary loans, maybe it's simply that there's now an adequate supply of loan parts that autobid "prefers" to the property loans? I'd also note that the total loan parts sold (as reported on the statistics page, although I see the chart of this number that elljay maintains seems to have broken when the number hit £100M [Edit: I see this is updating again - thanks elljay!]) is still only increasing by an amount a little over £1M per week, of which "property parts at par" would be only a fraction... and last I looked there were around 105000 separate loan parts for sale of which over 51000 were at or below par... of these the "first" 500 on the pagination I was using were valued at over £60k, so the whole lot would be several million pounds worth - representing many weeks of sales at current volume, even before more loan parts are added to the pile!
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blender
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Post by blender on May 6, 2015 13:57:42 GMT
Thanks sl75. I can add some statistics on the level of the reduction of Autobid purchases. These are for the seven weeks commencing Monday 16th March and ending Sunday 3rd May. They are number of property development loan parts sold per week which are probably through Autobid. They are a mix of £20 and £40 parts. I have eliminated those which are definitely manual (more than one part per loan), but this could include some manual purchases:
35, 46, 22, 29, 20, 8, 3.
Since then so far 1 further sale this week. The break point (which clearly exists in weekly and daily numbers) is about 14/15th April, just after the Easter holiday. This breaks the 20 week into 14 Mon/Tues and 6 for the rest of the week.
If I started my weekly stats on Wednesday you would see the cliff like so: 33, 36, 31, 31, 7, 9, 2. last day Tuesday 5th May.
I have had over 1000 such parts for sale during that time, so enough to have some validity.
I suspect some undeclared fiddling with the Autobid process, perhaps aimed at supporting the PM. But I cannot say whether this is specific to property loans, or particular property loans, or those continuously listed for sale (as mine are) or whatever. These analyses are easily done with Excel and we have a date to focus on, so can others add to the data, or add new comparisons with non-property parts?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on May 6, 2015 15:11:38 GMT
I'd already suggested (more than once) that the 0.5%/1% could maybe be upped a bit for these secured loans, where the chance of a complete wipe-out ought to be rather small. That means the autobid folks could acquire more at primary auction. Whether they could acquire more on the SM (if they showed up too late for the initial auction(s)) would still depend on whether autobuy on the SM had a glimmer of intelligence. 8>. If you want £3m loan spread out among folks at 0.5% per, you need £600m of ready/willing/able buyer capital (and probably 2-3x that, given not everyone would really want to play). I don't think FC have that much in play (?) in which case they absolutely require some diversity criminals.
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blender
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Post by blender on May 6, 2015 16:14:20 GMT
I can see why they would want to stop a newbie autobidder from buying £20 parts in existing tranches on the SM; so that they can buy larger parts in later tranches on the PM. But if they have implemented a change of Autobid protocol on the quiet to have that effect or similar, because they have realised they continue to need underwriters on the later tranches - then that would be dishonest and unacceptable behaviour, IMO. The problems are of their own making - as GSV points out.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 6, 2015 17:00:56 GMT
It makes a vast difference to the appeal of the property loans if Autobid is now going to ignore them on the SM. I will certainly not be investing any more funds in Further Creaking property loans unless they're sufficiently attractive to hold for the duration (which means max 6 - 9 months term if the deal remains no better than 8% + 2%CB)
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Post by phlitb on May 7, 2015 12:12:05 GMT
Have they turned the tap back on? I've sold 2(!) property parts at par already today
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blender
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Post by blender on May 7, 2015 16:10:04 GMT
Have they turned the tap back on? I've sold 2(!) property parts at par already today Could be manual purchases. Still nothing here.
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Post by phlitb on May 7, 2015 16:45:24 GMT
Having only sold one property part this month until today, selling 2 in such a short space of time seemed too unlikely to be down to chance or manual bidders. But it does appear I just got lucky, sorry for falsely raising hopes
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blender
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Post by blender on May 7, 2015 16:59:56 GMT
There is nothing at all wrong with sharing that experience, and pleased that you have sold two. They are selling OK at a discount.
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