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Post by GSV3MIaC on May 31, 2015 18:38:39 GMT
Property parts in general (at par) have been trickling off the shelves today, but given the almost complete lack of anything else going on (at least anything worthwhile .. we're back to early January levels of excitement here) I guess it is not surprising. These £1m 'all at once' repayments cause nearly as much problem for the system as the original £1m listings do .. maybe more, since the listings are typically spread over a longer period. OTOH I suppose Feeling Cheerful don't have any particular problem with a pile of lender cash sitting on the sidelines .. doesn't even impact the 'average return' number the way they calculate them, IIRC.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jun 1, 2015 7:47:12 GMT
Property parts in general (at par) have been trickling off the shelves today, but given the almost complete lack of anything else going on (at least anything worthwhile .. we're back to early January levels of excitement here) I guess it is not surprising. These £1m 'all at once' repayments cause nearly as much problem for the system as the original £1m listings do .. maybe more, since the listings are typically spread over a longer period. OTOH I suppose Feeling Cheerful don't have any particular problem with a pile of lender cash sitting on the sidelines .. doesn't even impact the 'average return' number the way they calculate them, IIRC. On the plus side, as well as triggering some property part purchases at par, the wealth of cash and dearth of attractive new loans this weekend has helped to move along a decent stack of SME parts that were getting no interest on the SM a week or two ago.
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Post by nightmare on Jun 1, 2015 9:34:15 GMT
I'm probably being a bit slow on the uptake but reading this thread it seems that everyone is saying that autobid will match SM loan parts with 0% premium in preference to those with a minus premium (ie a discount). Is this right?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jun 1, 2015 9:37:47 GMT
I'm probably being a bit slow on the uptake but reading this thread it seems that everyone is saying that autobid will match SM loan parts with 0% premium in preference to those with a minus premium (ie a discount). Is this right? Yes. Autobid will not buy anything with a premium or a discount. I assume the reason for ignoring SM parts listed with a discount is to avoid problem loans (late payments, etc) being offloaded to Autobidders, but it makes little sense for Autobid to pick up property loan parts at par when there are sometime hundreds of parts listed with discounts as great as 1.1/1.2%. One of many reasons why turning on Autobid is sub-optimal for those with even a little time on their hands.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 1, 2015 11:02:18 GMT
One of many reasons why turning on Autobid is sub-optimal for those with even a little time on their hands. The optimality (or not!) of autobid seems to me highly dependent on the rate you set. For those who are using autobid in a near-optimal manner, this issue won't matter, as no loan parts at a near-optimal rate will be offered at a discount anyway.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 1, 2015 11:07:21 GMT
Yes, autobid/autobuy will ONLY buy parts at par .. one of many things which are wrong with it.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 1, 2015 11:13:04 GMT
One of many reasons why turning on Autobid is sub-optimal for those with even a little time on their hands. The optimality (or not!) of autobid seems to me highly dependent on the rate you set. For those who are using autobid in a near-optimal manner, this issue won't matter, as no loan parts at a near-optimal rate will be offered at a discount anyway. We're going to have to agree to disagree about whether there IS any 'optimal manner' for using autobid .. i.e. where it won't buy dented parts (just because they are high rate and sold at par), where it won't invest 0.5% or 1% of your fund in a single, possibly not very liquid, loan part, and where it'll actually bid on everything you'd like it to bid on before the auction closes (we won't even get into the issue of the rate it bids at .. I assume for 'optimal' you mean to set it at a really high rate, and put up with the fact that sometimes you could have got more, and sometimes you'll drop out when you might have been willing to go lower). Oh and it won't do 'spread betting' either.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 1, 2015 13:09:45 GMT
I assume for 'optimal' you mean to set it at a really high rate... "really high" wouldn't necessarily be optimal (if it's too high, you'd get outbid all the time, and never get any meaningful amount of money lent out, but if it's not high enough, you'll get all your money lent out "too quickly", and still have equally good lending opportunities that you miss due to lack of funds). Re: "sometimes you'll drop out when you might have been willing to go lower" - why would you be willing to go lower if you can get all your money lent out at a higher rate for an equivalent risk?
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 1, 2015 14:49:45 GMT
We are repeating old discussions so I will repeat that the secondary market is there principally to give liquidity for those wishing to sell before term. Autobid works with Autosale to do that at par. So an idea that Autobid is there solely for the buyer and needs to be optimised for the buyer is taking too narrow a view of its purpose. The problem with the property loans lies with the overuse of a cash back promotion - not with Autobid. If property loans had a good interest rate, or if Autobid would buy larger parts in secured A+ loans, there would be no problem. Autobid is not so bad a facility - it seems to be used as a scape-goat here, quite literally. If you feel guilty about selling property loan parts at par - don't list them.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 1, 2015 21:07:23 GMT
Nope, I don't feel bad about SELLING them, I feel bad about people BUYING them at Par when they could have bought them at a discount. Yes, I could list them at .3% discount instead, but then I'd lose more than 50% of the purchasing market, which will ONLY buy at par. If Autobuy would buy at the best rate available, and autosell would (optionally) sell at a similar rate, I'd be happier about it.
SL75 .. you haven't persuaded me that there is a workable definition of 'optimal manner' to use autobid/autobuy. I looked at the autobid options page again, but 'optimal' didn't seem to be an available option. 8>.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 2, 2015 8:08:55 GMT
Nope, I don't feel bad about SELLING them, I feel bad about people BUYING them at Par when they could have bought them at a discount. Yes, I could list them at .3% discount instead, but then I'd lose more than 50% of the purchasing market, which will ONLY buy at par. If Autobuy would buy at the best rate available, and autosell would (optionally) sell at a similar rate, I'd be happier about it. ... That's the problem - you need not feel bad about anything. People who use Autobid are generally those who have not the time or have not the skill to pick their loan parts, or of course are simply happy with what Autobid produces, which is a lot better than savings. But it is a tool which gives statistically determined results and is judged by its users by how it performs overall against expectations. That performance is managed by FC and it is their responsibility, in setting the trading rules and in other ways, to ensure that the Autobid users get an acceptable return. The major intervention is in setting MBR on the PM. You are worrying about individual loans parts purchased being sub-optimal, when Autobid users have no interest in the individual purchases, and even less in the identity and motivations of the sellers of individual loan parts. The only person who feels bad about this process is the seller of a property loan part which he knows to be a sub-optimal purchase. But you could look at it another way and be pleased that the Autobid purchaser, who may well hold to term, has a part with the best security on the platform. Loans which come back from late are a far more risky purchase imo, but ok within a diversified Autobid portfolio. PS Nice post in another place, GSV.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 2, 2015 9:08:54 GMT
SL75 .. you haven't persuaded me that there is a workable definition of 'optimal manner' to use autobid/autobuy. I looked at the autobid options page again, but 'optimal' didn't seem to be an available option. 8>. Given the starting position that one is using autobid (rather than bidding manually or similar): - If you could have set higher rates, and still got all your money lent out within a "reasonable" amount of time, your rates are too low. Agreed? - If you fail to get money lent out as fast as it is being repaid, so that funds are unnecessarily idle, you are demanding too high a rate. Agreed? I'd call the state in which neither is true "optimal" (albeit that the "optimal" rate cannot be known in advance, so a real user would have something "near-optimal"). What term would you prefer for it?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 2, 2015 11:59:50 GMT
I guess the fact that you can't know what 'optimal' is except by discovering what it isn't (by which time it is too late) sort of spoils the concept for me. I'd like an option (as we all know coz I've said it before) to tell autobid to 'buy into this loan at the best possible rate, but not below x.x%'.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 2, 2015 12:08:11 GMT
I guess the fact that you can't know what 'optimal' is except by discovering what it isn't (by which time it is too late) sort of spoils the concept for me. I'd like an option (as we all know coz I've said it before) to tell autobid to 'buy into this loan at the best possible rate, but not below x.x%'. ... and how exactly do you select an optimal value for x.x%? It's the same optimisation problem... if you use a value of x.x% that is too low, you'll end up chasing the rates down on the first few loans that include a rate of at least x.x% and have no money left for subsequent loans where you could have got y.y% (> x.x%) for a similar risk... but if you use a value of x.x% that is too high, you'll be left with idle cash earning 0.0%, so fail to achieve the x.x% rate you selected.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 2, 2015 18:52:10 GMT
But at least I'd be sure to have gotten the optimal rate for each of the loans I bought in to, even if other, supposedly similar risk band, loans later went for higher rates. I'd set x.x% by looking at the recent primary market closes, or by when the SM is offering, plus a dose of crystal ball. 'Optimal' is always subject to revision as rates change over time, whereas 'optimal for any given loan' is pretty well defined - tis the best rate you could have got it at.
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