jjc
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Post by jjc on May 4, 2016 12:17:26 GMT
Naaaaaaaah. Appreciate the comments but truly can't believe this is the new normal on AC. Can anyone point me to any records kept of max allocations for new loans on AC? I believe recalling that ilmoro or some other super-duper forumite might be keeping tabs. Quick look at my records till Dec, 3-4k plus was the normal then (with smaller amounts for some loans at the time of drought, & the silly hiccup on 199 subsequently partially rectified by chris). Now deal flow has picked up so notably (& number of lenders on AC hasn't) I struggle to understand what AC's thinking is if this really is the new normal. AC, how & why should a lender continue to invest in MLIA? Whichever way you look at it (I'm still trying) it just doesn't add up. stuartassetzcapital
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Post by pepperpot on May 4, 2016 12:32:24 GMT
My last decent sized allocation was #246 (£2,117.76)*, a low rate but very low LTV. There's been a push for additional QAA deposits (the 4.25% rate in Apr) and the new 30 day account both of which have needed feeding recently. >£2m deposited in the 30-day in less than a week gives a lot of scope for increased loan flow.
*on 11th Apr
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on May 4, 2016 12:36:29 GMT
Naaaaaaaah. Appreciate the comments but truly can't believe this is the new normal on AC. Can anyone point me to any records kept of max allocations for new loans on AC? I believe recalling that ilmoro or some other super-duper forumite might be keeping tabs. Quick look at my records till Dec, 3-4k plus was the normal then (with smaller amounts for some loans at the time of drought, & the silly hiccup on 199 subsequently partially rectified by chris ). Now deal flow has picked up so notably (& number of lenders on AC hasn't) I struggle to understand what AC's thinking is if this really is the new normal. AC, how & why should a lender continue to invest in MLIA? Whichever way you look at it (I'm still trying) it just doesn't add up. stuartassetzcapital Sorry. I was but I stopped when it seemed to no longer be an issue and noone was reporting allocations anymore. Loans also werent fully subscribed at drawdown. Ive still got the old figures somewhere Chris post in 30day thread suggests still on radar Brand new account has just gone live, a 30 day access account that compliments the QAA. More accounts are on their way along with other changes to improve the service, including some much needed TLC for our MLIA investors, and a small refresh of the dashboard to make it more compact in the face of new accounts launching.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on May 4, 2016 13:02:38 GMT
Cheers ilmoro. More than some TLC, it seems AC need to come up with a business case for the MLIA. Not sure how we should be greeting the "more accounts are on their way" notice either. I've been a fan of AC growing (& adding new automated accounts to help fire up this growth) but if these are the results then not sure what to think tbh. It's difficult to believe AC haven't made a fairly serious mistake on the MLIA even accepting new IA's impact. As IA lending volumes grow & MLIA volumes become quickly marginalised it shouldn't be very difficult to allow a sensible allocation to MLIA lenders without impacting IA's in any significant way.. or am I missing something? Btw chris could you please update on the current (& likely future) situation regarding selling priorities for 30DAA, QAA, GBBA/GEIA, MLIA.
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Post by chris on May 4, 2016 14:27:52 GMT
Cheers ilmoro . More than some TLC, it seems AC need to come up with a business case for the MLIA. Not sure how we should be greeting the "more accounts are on their way" notice either. I've been a fan of AC growing (& adding new automated accounts to help fire up this growth) but if these are the results then not sure what to think tbh. It's difficult to believe AC haven't made a fairly serious mistake on the MLIA even accepting new IA's impact. As IA lending volumes grow & MLIA volumes become quickly marginalised it shouldn't be very difficult to allow a sensible allocation to MLIA lenders without impacting IA's in any significant way.. or am I missing something? Btw chris could you please update on the current (& likely future) situation regarding selling priorities for 30DAA, QAA, GBBA/GEIA, MLIA. Why do you think the MLIA has been marginalised - it's the second largest investor in these recent loans behind the QAA / 30DAA but with those accounts slowly selling out over the next few days and weeks? MLIA has a larger holding than the GBBA in those loans. Current priorities haven't changed - QAA and 30DAA operate with purchase and sale priority (same mechanism and algorithm), GEIA has a purchase priority on green loans due to their current infrequency (very roughly 2:1 to MLIA), GBBA and MLIA and the next account to launch are identical priority. QAA and 30DAA are having their priorities selectively reduced where we don't need to use their past priority to bring them into line with the GBBA / MLIA wherever we can. GEIA will have its priority reduced as well once we have a steady stream of qualifying loans. The long term plan is to have all accounts operate with the same priority in the same marketplace with the QAA / 30DAA only using increased priority if their liquidity reduces below comfortable levels.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on May 4, 2016 14:51:35 GMT
>£2m deposited in the 30-day in less than a week gives a lot of scope for increased loan flow. Has anyone been watching the QAA balance since the 30DAA was launched? I would have expected that much of the funds in the 30DAA now came out of the QAA, as people who made direct investments in the QAA would have decided that they didn't need instant access to all of their investment so they might as well move some into the 30DAA and earn a bit more interest.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 4, 2016 15:18:29 GMT
>£2m deposited in the 30-day in less than a week gives a lot of scope for increased loan flow. Has anyone been watching the QAA balance since the 30DAA was launched? I would have expected that much of the funds in the 30DAA now came out of the QAA, as people who made direct investments in the QAA would have decided that they didn't need instant access to all of their investment so they might as well move some into the 30DAA and earn a bit more interest. Only occasionally but I think the QAA peaked at about £14.4m and is now down to £12.6m. The 30DAA is now up to £2.4m, so most of the 30DAA money had indeed likely come from the QAA. I think the new account makes excellent sense in terms of reducing the risks of coping with large short-term swings in QAA supply / demand.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on May 4, 2016 16:21:35 GMT
Naaaaaaaah. Appreciate the comments but truly can't believe this is the new normal on AC. Can anyone point me to any records kept of max allocations for new loans on AC? I believe recalling that ilmoro or some other super-duper forumite might be keeping tabs. Quick look at my records till Dec, 3-4k plus was the normal then (with smaller amounts for some loans at the time of drought, & the silly hiccup on 199 subsequently partially rectified by chris ). Now deal flow has picked up so notably (& number of lenders on AC hasn't) I struggle to understand what AC's thinking is if this really is the new normal. AC, how & why should a lender continue to invest in MLIA? Whichever way you look at it (I'm still trying) it just doesn't add up. stuartassetzcapital Sorry. I was but I stopped when it seemed to no longer be an issue and noone was reporting allocations anymore. Loans also werent fully subscribed at drawdown. Ive still got the old figures somewhere Chris post in 30day thread suggests still on radar Brand new account has just gone live, a 30 day access account that compliments the QAA. More accounts are on their way along with other changes to improve the service, including some much needed TLC for our MLIA investors, and a small refresh of the dashboard to make it more compact in the face of new accounts launching.From Memory: One thing stu said was that the drawdown would be stretched out and that it wouldn't happen in one big dollop. I'll try and find the quote somewhere. So keep your target set and expect more. Edit here's the quote, I see it's slightly olderthan I remember so perhaps policy has changed, £40 to £1,750 ish? If you were a politician this would probably be called a U-turn. We will no longer release the full loan to the market at the second of drawdown, just like many UWs drip their stock into the market. We brought forwards some more release today and will release more of this loan in the future too. The system is moving to automatic releases and we over-rode that today to bring more to market faster given the low supply recently. Sorry for any confusion this caused and as we deliver more loans now this problem should dissipate, I sincerely hope so.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on May 4, 2016 16:36:49 GMT
Have very probably missed more than a few beats chris , so forgive the naivety (which in the absence of better explanations might spill into scepticism) but if I’m reading you correctly: 1. MLIA has been far from 2nd picker but effectively sits bottom of the pile. QAA & 30D are 2 different accounts from a lender’s point of view, which would make MLIA 3rd (4th on my much-loved green loans). If we take Butch Cassidy ’s comment on the GBBA allocation doubling your stake as being more or less correct that means MLIA is bottom of the pile everywhere you look (with another new account to step in – potentially also with a higher priority than MLIA?). 2. You’re not saying anything about the approximate total allocations for QAA/30D/GBBA/MLIA. If the first 2 get the lion’s share (say 80%) and MLIA & GBBA are level-pegging at 10% each you can try to sell it as a 2nd placer but most lenders (including new MLIA’s, which would be part of any equation that sees MLIA having a future..) would just consider that very/ridiculously meagre pickings for MLIA. Given the disproportion between the total lending volumes I wouldn’t think it’s that difficult to keep MLIA lenders a lot happier with just a little more effort (allocation) from AC. Maybe I’m wrong? 3. are the £50-£100 MLIA stakes available on these loans representative of what has been happening with new AC loans over the course of 2016? If they are then it would seem AC have, nice words aside, pretty much tended a dark veil over the MLIA. How can one reconciliate duedil for an extra point or two at best on a two/v small 3 fig stake? Even forgetting the lower sales priority / liquidity penalty / lack of PF cover etc. Where’s the upside? 4. Correct me if I’m wrong but I’d be surprised if MLIA lender numbers have increased much, or even their total exposure on AC this year. Lenders registered in Jan were about 11.200, they’re now only 12.350, assuming 50% of these new guys are active that’s <600 more, deployment is always slow & gradual (especially when allocations are low!), so I can’t see MLIA taking a bigger % of loans than they used to before. Let’s say new MLIA lenders this year had invested 5% (?) of what a long-time MLIA lender has, that’s the equivalent of just 30 historic MLIA lenders, or about 5% of what used to be a full average number of MLIA’s lending base in an AC loan. If we further assume that historic MLIA lenders might have reduced their average stake, or the number of loans they invest in (eg due to drop in rates, perceived better pickings elsewhere) I’d be surprised if MLIA deployment had increased much. If we still further assume that some MLIA lenders will have shifted their exposure over to GBBA (little extra benefit in MLIA or just to have a chance to deploy meaningful funds, or simply couldn’t fathom how much they were going to get on MLIA so didn’t bother setting a proper target), it’s hard to get away from the impression that AC have effectively (intentionally or not, knowingly or not) pushed MLIA into an ever-shrinking corner & the Sundance Kid’s best buddy’s prediction became a somewhat sad self-fulfilling prophecy. 5. "GEIA will have its priority reduced as well once we have a steady stream of qualifying loans." I work in renewables & would love to believe this is imminent, but can you be more specific so this doesn’t sound like jam the day after tomorrow? I know it’s not always easy to balance all interests as you scale the platform & (like most other long-time AC lenders) have never doubted that IA’s would represent over time, by far the biggest portion of AC (& P2P) lending. But (as a “re-born AC newbie”) I can’t help but think the pendulum has swung over far too much on these last loans at any rate, & can’t see how MLIA makes any sense. Open (& very willing!) to being re-educated or enlightened :-)
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Post by pepperpot on May 4, 2016 17:13:01 GMT
As an illustration of Stuarts comment quoted above, an initial allocation of £214.74 in #267 was given on 28th Apr but in the 6 days since then my holding in the loan is up to £706.68, the managed are accounts dripping it out into the market. I expect to be into 4 figures before too long, 5 figures maybe possible in a month or so, all depends on deal flow, if it picks up it'll push more out of the QAA into MLIA.
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Post by chris on May 4, 2016 17:23:30 GMT
jjc1. We haven't released the precise mechanisms at play with the QAA / 30DAA as there is competitive information in them. I suspect that will be relaxed shortly but as that's not my call to unilaterally make I'll have to be somewhat opaque. Best I can say with these loans is that those accounts have had their fill of them but with the commitment that they will slowly release more and more to the other accounts. As per Stuart's post quoted above the current intention is to do this across a large number of loans so that there is always a steady stream of loan units coming available. No one user in either the GBBA or MLIA has an allocation greater than others in the other account, although there do seem to be some lenders (via both accounts) that didn't participate in the second release of loan units for some reason or another. I don't have time to investigate all of them, most looking like they ran out of funds through making other investments, but if someone wants to give me some specifics I can look into it further. 2. As per (1) we haven't released the mechanisms used with QAA / 30DAA. This latest batch of loans has been the only recent loans that have attracted complaint with other recent loans attracting criticism that there was too much available on the aftermarket and that it wasn't visibly selling down quickly enough. Instead of that lumpy large allocation we're aiming to smooth allocation so that there's always something available across a variety of loans but never in large enough amounts that the aftermarket stalls for lenders trying to offload their holdings. We're not always going to get that perfectly right. 3. No. These were particularly small loans. It's not been typical and it won't be typical going forward. 4. Lender numbers are growing at multiple hundreds per month of active investors with funds deposited on the platform and loan units bought. Existing lenders are also depositing more into the platform. We're also cranking up the marketing budget at the moment with a focus on bringing new lenders to the platform. All charts are trending up, including MLIA activity. 5. Stuart made a post recently with a rough outline - possible series two account with a lower rate and a focus on refinancing existing turbines (not just those already funded by us) with known output and no build risk. In the shorter term there are several wind turbines in the pipeline. All my investment is currently via MLIA and QAA (via swept funds) and I'll continue fighting the corner for MLIA users. There are some new features coming for the account over the next few months to help make it more powerful.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 4, 2016 23:29:41 GMT
All my investment is currently via MLIA and QAA (via swept funds) and I'll continue fighting the corner for MLIA users. There are some new features coming for the account over the next few months to help make it more powerful. /mod had definitely off Personally speaking there's not much that's more powerful or compelling than a good combination of rate, security, term and structure. (sorry, I did try to make that read other than snarky but.... without writing too much it always came out the same way - it's not meant to be snarky).
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gnasher
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Post by gnasher on May 5, 2016 9:39:03 GMT
Sorry guys, but really! Is a 96 page forum thread (Edit : now 97 )a good idea? How much good and relevant information is there in this thread which will never be read?
Please can we have one thread per loan, started when it is first listed. Then have all postings for that loan in that one thread. Then we can have other threads for other specific topics. That way all threads will be appropriately focused and we can decide what we want to read and discuss more easily.
Humongous generic rambling threads like this just do not work for me.
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bg
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Post by bg on May 5, 2016 14:28:21 GMT
Sorry guys, but really! Is a 96 page forum thread (Edit : now 97 )a good idea? How much good and relevant information is there in this thread which will never be read? Please can we have one thread per loan, started when it is first listed. Then have all postings for that loan in that one thread. Then we can have other threads for other specific topics. That way all threads will be appropriately focused and we can decide what we want to read and discuss more easily. Humongous generic rambling threads like this just do not work for me. I actually prefer having just the one thread - and then new threads for specific loans. I can just check this thread to see if any new loans have been posted etc. New threads are fine but seeing a thread #271, #278, #293 etc means little to me, loans are often out of sequence, i dont memorise the numbers and unless i log onto the site and check i don't know if its a new loan or not.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on May 5, 2016 19:37:51 GMT
It's what happens on most of the platforms' forums (fora?), and not a problem for me .. it means I can 'subscribe' to one thread and get updated on all the new loans appearing ... otherwise I'd have to subscribe to a whole bunch of threads (before they exist. 8>.)
I do think =detailed= rambling about each individual new loan might best have a thread of its own, with the mega-thread just used for 'heads up, here's a new one to talk about', or 'something significant changed'.
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