parisingoc
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Post by parisingoc on Sept 27, 2015 20:37:14 GMT
Read this thread with some interest.
My biggest investment to date has been in Bondora, which I am now to exit as gracefully as possible, but I have also had a small amount (£480) in Finding Credibility.
The news of the fixed rates means I am now exiting this as well as the proposed rates come nowhere near the 12.4% headline, 11.3% AR and 8.6% EFDR I had achieved with only A+, A and B risk loans.
Where I find myself thinking I have been lucky is your experience on defaults. My own experience on the same (= none!) means I thought Fundamentally Creditable were pretty much bullet proof but you guys have taught me I am obviously prone to delusions (something my wife has been telling me for years).
I'm off to see how much space there is beneath my mattress. . . .
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 27, 2015 20:57:18 GMT
does that mean my net earnings is just over 3.5% annually too? It does sound like it, doesn't it? Fire up the XIRR function on your spreadsheet, if you want to get a true figure. One thought... If you've been doing a lot of SM buying of very high-nominal-rate parts, how much have you chewed through in SM buy premiums? (Earnings -> Loan part purchases) How does your raw "interest" figure compare to the headline "earnings" figure (interest plus sale premiums plus cashback minus buy premiums), and the bottom line "net earnings" (after fees, losses)?
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Post by jackpease on Sept 28, 2015 6:16:01 GMT
My experience is like yours Eddie - over 4,000 parts on the SM diversification 0.8%, no autobid, no particular focus on high rates or particular (fictional) risk bands - but in the last several weeks losses exceeded profits and i've had to have a rethink of strategy.
Already maxed out on comfort levels elsewhere so won't be saying 'I'm out'.
I had long given up bidding on the primary market but with the move fixed rates I might now start....
Jack P
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Post by bonfemme on Sept 28, 2015 8:33:28 GMT
My experience is like yours Eddie - over 4,000 parts on the SM diversification 0.8%, no autobid, no particular focus on high rates or particular (fictional) risk bands - but in the last several weeks losses exceeded profits and i've had to have a rethink of strategy. Already maxed out on comfort levels elsewhere so won't be saying 'I'm out'. I had long given up bidding on the primary market but with the move fixed rates I might now start.... Jack P Like Jack and Eddie, my losses in the last few weeks have escalated beyond what I'm prepared to accept. Added to which, the recoveries have slowed noticeably in the last month or two. The few loans left for auction are already hitting the new fixed rates - rates which aren't sensible for the defaults. I'm moving on to pastures new, but am also uncomfortable with much more exposure elsewhere (for now), so might still dabble in a few property loans if they retain the cashback.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 28, 2015 8:44:25 GMT
I'm happy to see plenty of my optimistically priced 2.5% - 3% premium loan parts heading for pastures new this morning... Roughly 1400 loan parts now gone, 4000-odd to go.
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acky
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Post by acky on Sept 28, 2015 9:21:21 GMT
I'm happy to see plenty of my optimistically priced 2.5% - 3% premium loan parts heading for pastures new this morning... Roughly 1400 loan parts now gone, 4000-odd to go. Don't know what I'm doing wrong then. I put dozens at better than the existing best buyer rate for the respective loans three days ago, and so far I've sold two!
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 28, 2015 9:25:18 GMT
I'm happy to see plenty of my optimistically priced 2.5% - 3% premium loan parts heading for pastures new this morning... Roughly 1400 loan parts now gone, 4000-odd to go. Don't know what I'm doing wrong then. I put dozens at better than the existing best buyer rate for the respective loans three days ago, and so far I've sold two! What size are your loan parts? If they're £60/£80/£100+ then you'll often need to beat the best £20 part price by around 0.5% to get much interest.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 28, 2015 9:37:58 GMT
Just to take eddie as an example (because it was his opening post), were he able to buy the same size chunk of every loan in a particular risk band eg C, then it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to expect to see FC's expected default rates if he held those to term and saw an interest rate cycle out.
The minute though that you step away from "holding the entire risk band" you're going to see some divergence from FC's expected default rates. If we assumed a normal distribution most people would be there or there abouts, whilst some at the far end of the right hand tail would never see a loss, and some at the end of the left hand tail would see a disproportionate amount of losses.
How much of that is due to luck, and how much due to effective selection of which loans to buy a piece of (or assuming that you don't have to hold to term, how much due to a trading strategy that allows you to minimise losses)?
Maybe eddie was just unlucky? Whether FC should explain this or not is another matter.
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Post by ratrace on Sept 28, 2015 9:42:48 GMT
Don't know what I'm doing wrong then. I put dozens at better than the existing best buyer rate for the respective loans three days ago, and so far I've sold two! What size are your loan parts? If they're £60/£80/£100+ then you'll often need to beat the best £20 part price by around 0.5% to get much interest. Yes there is often very good rates on offer with the larger loan parts in the D band loans on the SM, as its this is what it takes to shift them. l only wish l had the funds to buy some of them. 
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Post by goldservice on Sept 28, 2015 9:43:59 GMT
Several posts on this and another thread refer to a recent greater occurrence of defaults. That is my experience too. Any thoughts on why this should be happening right now?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 28, 2015 10:19:31 GMT
Several posts on this and another thread refer to a recent greater occurrence of defaults. That is my experience too. Any thoughts on why this should be happening right now? My guess is that, over the summer holiday period, the Frozen Correspondence recoveries team "To Do" basket filled up rapidly and only recently has been worked through now that people are back at their desks ping-pong table.
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eddie
i have put up with a great deal from the likes of you people, a very great deal....
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Post by eddie on Oct 3, 2015 9:43:52 GMT
well, i thought i was going to get away with 22000 23000 net earnings but no, im actually coming out with 600 on the day, as there are loans that are not marked up as defaults that i cant sell, as in fc wont let me list them, i guess they will trickle in over the next couple of years or not. hmmm.... im not sour graping but this excercise has been counter productive. on the plus side i have been encouraged to save money that i would have spent, also learned a bit about finance lingo. i think if the summary page showed how much you actually invested as well as all the other figures they put up you might have a more realistic veiw and subsequent expectation of your performance. martin lewis explains how you can have 3 santander current accounts that would have returned more and enhance your credit rating, and as im into saving up deposits for property might be the way to go. its going to take some time to re diversify my ss account now too as i have just doubled it up.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 3, 2015 11:09:24 GMT
well, i thought i was going to get away with 22000 23000 net earnings but no, im actually coming out with 600 on the day, as there are loans that are not marked up as defaults that i cant sell, as in fc wont let me list them, i guess they will trickle in over the next couple of years or not. hmmm.... im not sour graping but this excercise has been counter productive. on the plus side i have been encouraged to save money that i would have spent, also learned a bit about finance lingo. i think if the summary page showed how much you actually invested as well as all the other figures they put up you might have a more realistic veiw and subsequent expectation of your performance. martin lewis explains how you can have 3 santander current accounts that would have returned more and enhance your credit rating, and as im into saving up deposits for property might be the way to go. its going to take some time to re diversify my ss account now too as i have just doubled it up. I'm not sure I understand much of that, but if you are saying that you have about £22,000 in RBR loans then misfortune is not the word for it.
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eddie
i have put up with a great deal from the likes of you people, a very great deal....
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Post by eddie on Oct 3, 2015 13:17:16 GMT
well, i thought i was going to get away with 22000 23000 net earnings but no, im actually coming out with 600 on the day, as there are loans that are not marked up as defaults that i cant sell, as in fc wont let me list them, i guess they will trickle in over the next couple of years or not. hmmm.... im not sour graping but this excercise has been counter productive. on the plus side i have been encouraged to save money that i would have spent, also learned a bit about finance lingo. i think if the summary page showed how much you actually invested as well as all the other figures they put up you might have a more realistic veiw and subsequent expectation of your performance. martin lewis explains how you can have 3 santander current accounts that would have returned more and enhance your credit rating, and as im into saving up deposits for property might be the way to go. its going to take some time to re diversify my ss account now too as i have just doubled it up. I'm not sure I understand much of that, but if you are saying that you have about £22,000 in RBR loans then misfortune is not the word for it. sorry, must have been suffering from brain freeze on finding out about the extra loans fc were not letting me sell, that should have read 2,200 to 2,300. in fact i dont know what my position is as i dont know how to see how much cash i actually put in without going thru pages and pages. i will just have to go thru the bank details but they only go back a year. just googled rbr not sure about that.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 3, 2015 13:30:06 GMT
RBR is "Risk Band Removed", FC's way of preventing sale of a loan when it hits problems
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