registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 4, 2015 17:27:19 GMT
It's slightly off topic, and maybe worthy of a thread of its own, but I don't think it's impossible that VW could go under as a result of recent events. Similarly, I doubt they are the only offenders.
|
|
jonah
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,031
Likes: 1,113
|
Post by jonah on Oct 4, 2015 20:36:22 GMT
It's slightly off topic, and maybe worthy of a thread of its own, but I don't think it's impossible that VW could go under as a result of recent events. Similarly, I doubt they are the only offenders. I bet shareholders (of which, ignoring index funds I'm not one) are hoping at least one other company is found to be doing something similar, as it would help distract and reduce the pain. The longer that takes to happen, the more chance of vw going, but I still think that is a pretty remote possibility.
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 5, 2015 6:31:51 GMT
The united states of Europe ain't gonna let vw go under.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 8:09:11 GMT
I wondered if they might rebrand, Audi, Skoda, Seat, Beetle, Rolls Royce, Porsche, now that might make a nice name with few Diesel associations.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 5, 2015 9:55:07 GMT
The united states of Europe ain't gonna let vw go under. Yeah, I agree with that. I should have said "require a massive state bailout akin to the 2008 bank bailout".
|
|
|
Post by oldnick on Oct 5, 2015 10:59:32 GMT
Isn't there an EU law preventing a country from bailing out a local company? Interesting to see how they get round that, as they surely will if there is a need. Or maybe the public will just keep on buying VW/Audi/Skoda/Seat and it will blow over? If it's possible to fix an emissions test, it's a small step for the EU to fix the 'fines' ☺
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 5, 2015 11:05:00 GMT
Except that the EPA in the US can fine up to about $35,000 per vehicle, which tots up to roughly three times the $6.5b VW have currently reserved for this, and that's before the class action lawsuits and potential criminal charges. Then you've got the EU, Russia, China and the rest of Asia ready to pile in. Do I think VW will go under? Not enough to be shorting it (or at least I am not brave enough) . Do I think it's going to get a right good kicking? Yep.
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 5, 2015 13:00:43 GMT
I actually have some (small amount of) sympathy for VW .. 'you get what you measure' .. if the emissions tests measure something other than what they should do, I'm not sure VW is 100% to blame. Now if VW advertised that that's what actually happened on the road (when they knew it wasn't), that's a bit different.
As a diesel (not VW) car owner (that being the only engine type BMW would sell me) I am waiting for the other shoe(s) to drop. I guess we can add diesel to a long list of wonder products which turned out to be quite the opposite .. asbestos, DDT, inert CFCs, Leaded Petrol, fossil fuels, .. whither next? .. graphene and buckyballs maybe? I expect we'll eventually manage to find something which is eco-terminal, if we try enough times.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 5, 2015 13:19:04 GMT
The problem VW face is that they (in some cases?) deliberately subverted the tests for the sole purpose of having the test make their performance look better. It's not just that the test itself might have been a bad measure.
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Oct 5, 2015 13:18:42 GMT
I actually have some (small amount of) sympathy for VW .. 'you get what you measure' .. if the emissions tests measure something other than what they should do, I'm not sure VW is 100% to blame. Now if VW advertised that that's what actually happened on the road (when they knew it wasn't), that's a bit different. As a diesel (not VW) car owner (that being the only engine type BMW would sell me) I am waiting for the other shoe(s) to drop. I guess we can add diesel to a long list of wonder products which turned out to be quite the opposite .. asbestos, DDT, inert CFCs, Leaded Petrol, fossil fuels, .. whither next? .. graphene and buckyballs maybe? I expect we'll eventually manage to find something which is eco-terminal, if we try enough times. But I thought they fixed the emissions just for the period of testing, which would be deliberate and fraudulent imo. They must be 100% to blame - it's not the inadequacy of the testing regime, which is another matter. Not long ago I had one of the offending VW diesels, and like GSV now have a BMW diesel (all those FC earnings no doubt). We wait to see if the VW group is the only offender. What VW need is to find a US car manufacturer who was up to the same tricks - then they might retain some shareholder value. (Did not see registerme post - we agree).
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,014
Likes: 5,142
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 5, 2015 14:36:07 GMT
But I thought they fixed the emissions just for the period of testing, which would be deliberate and fraudulent imo. Yep, that's the short version. The car "recognises" the test environment, and uses a different set of ECU settings. I very much doubt that VW are uniquely incompetent, in being unable to legitimately meet the targets, or uniquely flexibile in their preferred workaround... I don't think there are any "US manufacturers" selling diesel cars in the US. Diesel is a very specialist, very tiny market over there.
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 5, 2015 15:49:46 GMT
But I thought they fixed the emissions just for the period of testing, which would be deliberate and fraudulent imo. Yep, that's the short version. The car "recognises" the test environment, and uses a different set of ECU settings. But the car may also recognise lots of other road conditions and adapts the ECU accordingly. If VW just said 'the on-test CO2/NO2 output was X' is that actually criminal? (obviously stating that the real world numbers are also X would be). Misleading, yep. I mean how many boxers step into the weigh-in about 5kg lighter than they step into the ring? (Or as one sales manager was heard to say, when asked 'How far is it to Oxford' .. "Are you driving it, or claiming for it?"). Yes, Ok, I am playing devil's advocate today ..
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 5, 2015 15:52:17 GMT
Well, I've already seen an interview with a VW board member where he stated that it was criminal behaviour.
|
|
nick
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,056
Likes: 825
|
Post by nick on Oct 5, 2015 20:47:47 GMT
It will be interesting to hear how VW intend to 'fix' the cars that are being recalled. My understanding is that the defeat devices switched on Urea injection when testing conditions were detected. To fix the problem they will have to keep the urea injection on (cost of increasing size of urea tank/refilling of urea?, but no other performance effect) or change other parameters which undoubtedly have a significant impact on performance (hence why they resorted to defect devices in the first place).
I think there is a risk that the VW business will be brought out from its current corporate entity to strand some of the massive liabilities heading their way. The number of diesels affected in Europe and the US (admittedly mostly the former) is mind boggling as is the potential civil liabilities from consumers and to a lesser degree, government (except the US).
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Oct 5, 2015 22:07:34 GMT
It will be interesting to hear how VW intend to 'fix' the cars that are being recalled. My understanding is that the defeat devices switched on Urea injection when testing conditions were detected. To fix the problem they will have to keep the urea injection on (cost of increasing size of urea tank/refilling of urea?, but no other performance effect) or change other parameters which undoubtedly have a significant impact on performance (hence why they resorted to defect devices in the first place). I think there is a risk that the VW business will be brought out from its current corporate entity to strand some of the massive liabilities heading their way. The number of diesels affected in Europe and the US (admittedly mostly the former) is mind boggling as is the potential civil liabilities from consumers and to a lesser degree, government (except the US). I am not sure that VW uses diesel exhaust fluid, containing urea, to reduce NOx. I do not think that Bluemotion is the same as Bluetech - which is the urea based system used by Mercedes. The offending software is apparently in 11 million cars, mostly in Europe, but that may not be the same thing as those cars having a urea injection system. My TDI did not have a urea tank, but I rather assumed it had the offending software though I did not know how it worked on a car without the urea def. Can anyone say for sure what UK cars are affected and how?
|
|