mack
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Post by mack on Jan 2, 2016 10:34:21 GMT
This whole discussion is really redundant anyway. There is no need to pre-fund the SM, or create a market where you can offer to buy or sell at a premium or discount. As soon as a big loan appears, the SM goes into overdrive, everyone gets what they want, and we all go home happy. The only people getting their knickers in a twist over this are those people with very little patience, who can't wait a week or so for new loans to pop up. yes, you can bring up the old chestnut, "but I have money I want to invest, but I can't and it is not getting me the interest I want", well sorry, but that's your problem, not SS's. They are not the only investment opportunity in the world, but then I suppose, looking elsewhere to put your money to work, is too much effort. The SS business model, works perfectly in every respect. Provided there are businesses in desperate need for short term financing, very few defaults, and no attempted company frauds, then we can sit back and enjoy earning cash for very little effort for years to come. Tinkering with something that works fine, just because people are impatient or lazy is daft. Well said! Have invested for over a year with SS, it does not need to be changed and most of the tinkering is not needed. I cannot understand all the constant whining. As you say it is total lack of patience. There has been loads on the SM after every loan but for some bizarre reason some investors believe you should be able to invest at anytime of their choosing. These are bridging loans. The stock market is available, has lots available there and I have heard it is just as liquid as SS is......
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james
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Post by james on Jan 2, 2016 11:08:59 GMT
IMO p2p is quite risky enough without adding the extra risk that I might inadvertently buy a loan at a loss which I can easily do on Abl and FS. These complicated schemes are OK for the erudite like James but I imagine that a lot of SS investors are "little old ladies" who are desperate to get a reasonable return on their savings. Please, SS, keep it simple! If you were to buy a loan at a loss at Ablrate you could simply ask Ablrate to reverse the transaction, something they have indicated they are willing to do. Though they also monitor the secondary market and might instead contact you to ask if you really meant to do that. They have contacted buyers who made unusual purchases in the past. Though it doesn't seem particularly hard to avoid buying a loan when the AER is a negative number. I'm not sure that it really takes much erudition to use such secondary markets. There have been more than a quarter of a million successful transactions on the Bondora secondary market, which I think has probably had more transactions than any other in Europe. it's pretty much a case when buying of looking at the AER and deciding if you like it, or when selling adjusting markup or down to the AER you think it'll take to get the deal done, or the one your'e willing to accept if you're not wonderfully keen to sell, just willing for the right price. You can't "buy at a loss" .. You can overpay, but there is no loss unless you sell for less than you bought for. It is possible to buy at a loss, just go with a negative AER purchase and the total of capital and interest repayments will be less than the amount paid for the loan. But it's not likely to happen since the negative AER is pretty clear. There are some negative AER offers at times. As soon as a big loan appears, the SM goes into overdrive, everyone gets what they want, and we all go home happy. What does the seller think when they find that they didn't sell all they were trying to sell? That is the required condition for all buyers to get what they wanted, unless it happens that the seller and buyers had an exact match of amounts wanted. What is much more likely isn't that but rather many buyers not getting what they wanted because there wasn't enough on sale. The only people getting their knickers in a twist over this are those people with very little patience, who can't wait a week or so for new loans to pop up. yes, you can bring up the old chestnut, "but I have money I want to invest, but I can't and it is not getting me the interest I want", well sorry, but that's your problem, not SS's. They are not the only investment opportunity in the world, but then I suppose, looking elsewhere to put your money to work, is too much effort. Hardly only those who lack patience, though it's also natural for new investors to want to see lots of opportunities in a secondary market so they can put their money to work at their choices of platforms rapidly and with broad diversification between and within each platform, at the potential cost of accepting lower interest rates to do it if they prefer not to wait. For the platform that's a competitive issue, since the money has gone to the competition. The discussion is somewhat moot for the moment, though, since I don't think that there will be a change here any time soon. Even when there is some change in demand, perhaps after significant interest rate rises, I suspect that platforms with par-only markets may keep at par-only to prevent secondary market sales from competing with the primary market for money, forcing the secondary to stay offering the lower par-only interest rates.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 2, 2016 11:34:21 GMT
James I was thinking of FC, and here, and other such places where I've never seen a negative AER (FC doesn't allow rates <4%) .. so yes, you can buy at a =potential= loss (in some places) but it isn't an actual loss unless you sell it for less than you bought it for, or hold it to repayment and get back less than you paid (you can of course make a loss on anything, if it goes pear shaped). You can also buy a sovereign for more than face value and make an instant large 'loss' .. but if you can sell it the next day for twice what you paid ... for mack: It might be appearing to work Ok at the moment, for people who want to hold, or to sell. It might in fact always work Ok for people who want to hold .. however there is no way to match buyers to sellers. Right now there are too many potential buyers (who would cheerfully pay you extra to be able to buy). At some future time there may be too many sellers (who would take a small haircut in order to be able to exit). Neither option is available. You are confused about the stock market, it is a lot MORE liquid than SS is .. I've never been unable to buy what I wanted there (although I might not like the price sometimes) or to sell what I didn't want (ditto). The ability to buy/sell at a premium or discount is rather key to the concept of 'market' .. if everything is state controlled fixed price you wind up with the 'nothing on the shelves' soviet era model.
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Post by reeknralf on Jan 2, 2016 11:48:23 GMT
The sucess of SS is allowing any investor simple access to high risk/reward investments. I fear this will also be their ultimate downfall. If you find buying or selling at premium/discount intimidating, I think you should be asking yourself what you're doing on a platform like SS.
It's fine to say that demand exceeds supply so you should be prepared to wait several months to build up an investment, but I disagree that a capacity to sit in front of a screen for hours whilst pressing F5 constitutes being 'patient'. It just means you place a very low opportunity cost on you time.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jan 2, 2016 12:02:58 GMT
It's fine to say that demand exceeds supply so you should be prepared to wait several months to build up an investment, but I disagree that a capacity to sit in front of a screen for hours whilst pressing F5 constitutes being 'patient'. It just means you place a very low opportunity cost on you time. I cannot understand why anyone wastes their time doing that. All that's needed is a little patience until the next new SS loan launches; at that point one can both buy into the new loan automatically (via pre-funding) and generally pick up parts in all sorts of other loans as lenders rebalance their portfolios.
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mack
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Post by mack on Jan 2, 2016 12:35:09 GMT
James I was thinking of FC, and here, and other such places where I've never seen a negative AER (FC doesn't allow rates <4%) .. so yes, you can buy at a =potential= loss (in some places) but it isn't an actual loss unless you sell it for less than you bought it for, or hold it to repayment and get back less than you paid (you can of course make a loss on anything, if it goes pear shaped). You can also buy a sovereign for more than face value and make an instant large 'loss' .. but if you can sell it the next day for twice what you paid ... for mack : It might be appearing to work Ok at the moment, for people who want to hold, or to sell. It might in fact always work Ok for people who want to hold .. however there is no way to match buyers to sellers. Right now there are too many potential buyers (who would cheerfully pay you extra to be able to buy). At some future time there may be too many sellers (who would take a small haircut in order to be able to exit). Neither option is available. You are confused about the stock market, it is a lot MORE liquid than SS is .. I've never been unable to buy what I wanted there (although I might not like the price sometimes) or to sell what I didn't want (ditto). The ability to buy/sell at a premium or discount is rather key to the concept of 'market' .. if everything is state controlled fixed price you wind up with the 'nothing on the shelves' soviet era model. Errr..not confused..it was sarcasm. I have invested for over a year with SS and there have been plenty of times where there was lots available. When I have had spare cash and nothing much on SS I have put it somewhere else. Each time a loan has gone live there has been tens of thousands on the secondary market. As these are bridging loans SS cannot source one every week. The current pipeline has over £10mil. As when these come on there will be more on the SM again. The fact is lots of people like myself are happy with SS. SS was able to grow rapidly with this model due to attracting investors with its simplicity. The changes made and further changes will deter a lot as well.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 2, 2016 14:51:30 GMT
OK, but you should realise that sarcasm and text don't always mix well, which is where the smiley comes in. 8>.
I'm not sure what changes you think have 'broken' the simple SS model - still seems pretty simple (probably too simple) to me. I am no big fan of the 'buy everything in sight and them make a profit flipping it' model, although if someone wants to pay a premium to get into the market I guess that is their option (I'd moderate that by the 'limit what / how fast the bots can buy' method, which SS have basically done now, rather than banning sales at a premium, which is what some platforms do).
Like you, I am quite happy to wait for a chance to move new money in to SS .. what I am more concerned about is the lack of any obvious / liquid exit mechanism if there are no willing buyers, or if rates go up. I don't PLAN to need my money inside 12 months (or however long the loans actually run for .. seems 'length of a bit of string'-ish in some cases), but it'd be nice to be assured I =could= get it out if I needed to, even if rates by then are 15%, so I need to take a small capital loss to get out.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Jan 2, 2016 17:17:45 GMT
OK, but you should realise that sarcasm and text don't always mix well, which is where the smiley comes in. 8>. I'm not sure what changes you think have 'broken' the simple SS model - still seems pretty simple (probably too simple) to me. I am no big fan of the 'buy everything in sight and them make a profit flipping it' model, although if someone wants to pay a premium to get into the market I guess that is their option (I'd moderate that by the 'limit what / how fast the bots can buy' method, which SS have basically done now, rather than banning sales at a premium, which is what some platforms do). Like you, I am quite happy to wait for a chance to move new money in to SS .. what I am more concerned about is the lack of any obvious / liquid exit mechanism if there are no willing buyers, or if rates go up. I don't PLAN to need my money inside 12 months (or however long the loans actually run for .. seems 'length of a bit of string'-ish in some cases), but it'd be nice to be assured I =could= get it out if I needed to, even if rates by then are 15%, so I need to take a small capital loss to get out. The argument against selling at a discount is much weaker, basically a desire for simplicity. Guaranteeing an exit possibility (at a price) does have attraction. The argument against selling at a premium is much stronger. Caveat Emptor has been largely ignored by the authorities in recent years - think PPI, bank charges etc. A platform which creates a market place in which a guaranteed loss is possible is risking regulatory punishment. The need for it is also much weaker. It is easy to see how someone might really need to sell quickly, but a scenario in which they needed to invest quickly is unlikely IMO.
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Post by pepperpot on Jan 2, 2016 19:21:44 GMT
If it ever becomes apparent that sales are slowing for whatever reason, I'm sure SS would be open to the possibility of introducing discounted sales to help speed exit. So far, if there has been a need for something they have always responded with quite equitable and innovative solutions. Why divert time and effort away from sourcing new stock to re-arrange the shelves?
Edit; if a SM allows me to help increase my return by selling at a mark-up I use it, but with a flat 12% and very little input required (because of pre-funding) I don't feel the need boost returns so I'd be against complicating things with some people earning less due to paying premiums.
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Post by reeknralf on Jan 2, 2016 20:11:08 GMT
If rates were to drop, it would be reasonable to allow holders' of older loans to sell at a premium.
Lending at 12% pretty much is a guarantee of losses. Arguing that hard-to-value/risky loans should be set out such that they appear simple investments, suitable for people who struggle with simple maths (aka KISS on this forum) is to advocate a much greater swindle than allowing people to sell 12% loans at 13% premiums.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Jan 2, 2016 20:20:40 GMT
Various people have mentioned a raise in interest rate. The only change in interest rate that I saw since joining P2P last July was on FC, and you all know that it was not a rise.
I think that SS rates are already competitive enough given the whole package offered on this platform so I do not think that we will be seeing an increase in interest rates very soon. Advocating an introduction of premiums on this basis sounds to me as clutching to straws to avoid drowning.
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ben
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Post by ben on Jan 2, 2016 20:38:01 GMT
I do not see why they need a premium etc even if rates change. With MT now offering some loans at 10% in near future I will probably sell some loans at 12% to diversify into them this is my choice I do not think it would affect SS or other platforms
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 2, 2016 21:34:19 GMT
Various people have mentioned a raise in interest rate. The only change in interest rate that I saw since joining P2P last July was on FC, and you all know that it was not a rise. I think that SS rates are already competitive enough given the whole package offered on this platform so I do not think that we will be seeing an increase in interest rates very soon. Advocating an introduction of premiums on this basis sounds to me as clutching to straws to avoid drowning. I think we were talking about a rise in the general market rates .. which will eventually ripple through to P2P-land. Doesn't need to be all that much (although it could be .. some of us remember 15% mortgage rates) .. even 1% would make older loans less attractive to buyers. I can accept the argument that SS would introduce discounts 'if and when needed' (though it'd be nice if SS themselves said so).
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Jan 3, 2016 1:08:02 GMT
My memory/info does not go that far. For how long did the 15% mortgage period lasted?
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james
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Post by james on Jan 3, 2016 5:54:13 GMT
My memory/info does not go that far. For how long did the 15% mortgage period lasted? In the UK since 1853's start of Halifax data collection there were a few months when the average mortgage rate was about 15%, based on the Building Society Association data covering that period. There was an earlier period when they were between 14% and 15% in the late 1970s. However for much of the time from 1970 through 1990 they were at or above 10%. Since individual borrowers don't get average rates many would have seen rates over 15% for quite extended time periods. This time also coincided with high inflation and related wage increases that rapidly reduced the value of the outstanding mortgage debt compared to wages to minimal levels: if you could get a mortgage and handle the payments you'd do very well indeed if working and getting inflation-related increases. Ten years of 10% inflation would reduce the real value compared to pay to just 38.5% of what it started as, changing "high commitment" payments at say 30% of income to well under 10% of income and making it easy for many still working to overpay and get rid of the debt. The highest base rate (the name/process changed several times) since 1694 was the 17% Minimum Lending Rate (XLS) that applied from 15 November 1979 to 3 July 1980 but it or related rates were at or above 10% from 8 June 1978 to 30 September 1982 and also for about half of the rates between then and 4 September 1991. That was the last time we saw a 10% base rate and after that it fell rapidly to around 5-6% before starting a rapid drop of Bank Rate on 6 November 2008 towards the 0.5% it's been at for the last five and a half years.
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