Liz
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Post by Liz on Dec 18, 2015 23:19:56 GMT
How's this going to work? If there's enough, everybody who asks for £100 gets £100, else it's spread between them. If there's anything left, it's spread between those who ask for £200. If there's anything left, it's spread between those who ask for £300... Everybody who asks for more gets nowt? This is going to be fun... And we don't have to wait long to find out, either - 74's a tiddler-in-waiting. If 1000 people bid at least £250 on a £250,000, loan then we all get £250, regardless of whether we prefunded £250 or £50,000. If 2000 or 3000 prefund or more, then we won't get much each.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 18, 2015 23:23:57 GMT
If 1000 people bid at least £250 on a £250,000, loan then we all get £250, regardless of whether we prefunded £250 or £50,000. If 2000 or 3000 prefund or more, then we won't get much each. Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans?
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jimbob
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Post by jimbob on Dec 18, 2015 23:25:53 GMT
I think a £100 to all, then next £100 distroed is an excellent approach. The big hitters will still be able to get big parts of the big loans !
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 18, 2015 23:27:10 GMT
Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans? Go to the loan page, and it tells you. All of the last six or seven are 1,100-1,300. At that rate, average "un-gamed" funding demand would appear to be about £2k, since £2-2.5m is the 100% breakpoint.
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Post by solicitorious on Dec 18, 2015 23:36:41 GMT
If 1000 people bid at least £250 on a £250,000, loan then we all get £250, regardless of whether we prefunded £250 or £50,000. If 2000 or 3000 prefund or more, then we won't get much each. Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans? Seems to be about 1200. On a £million loan that would equate to an average of £833 each. Many people probably won't want that much, leading to perhaps a small bonus for the few that want more... Since SS don't publish full bid stats it's hard to estimate.* We're into Benford's Law... Maybe 30.1% of the requests will begin with a "1"?  * maybe looking at an unlimited bid large loan on FS would be instructive...
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Post by pepperpot on Dec 18, 2015 23:38:30 GMT
If 1000 people bid at least £250 on a £250,000, loan then we all get £250, regardless of whether we prefunded £250 or £50,000. If 2000 or 3000 prefund or more, then we won't get much each. Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans? The 'Investors so far' figure for pebble 73 is 1283, even a fairly long standing large loan pebble 35 Pickering has 1436, not as many as I thought. So a fair number of the registered members are just voyeurs. Details are on the actual loan page below the particulars/valuation. Edit, seems like a popular question to answer!
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Post by solicitorious on Dec 19, 2015 0:09:13 GMT
Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans? Seems to be about 1200. On a £million loan that would equate to an average of £833 each. Many people probably won't want that much, leading to perhaps a small bonus for the few that want more... Since SS don't publish full bid stats it's hard to estimate.* We're into Benford's Law... Maybe 30.1% of the requests will begin with a "1"? * maybe looking at an unlimited bid large loan on FS would be instructive... Sorry to quote myself. FS Llanelli today follows Benford's Law quite well.... 30.8% of bids started with a "1". Problem is, a lot more than would be expected also began with 10000.... 
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Investor
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Post by Investor on Dec 19, 2015 1:02:40 GMT
I think a £100 to all, then next £100 distroed is an excellent approach. The big hitters will still be able to get big parts of the big loans ! But you miss the main point. Remember the 'big hitters' want to diversify as well. What this does is gives them a smaller chunk of some of the smaller loans which will simply means that to maintain the level of diversification that they are aiming for, they will simply reduce their holdings on the larger loans to maintain their pre-set status quo. That cash will be diversified cross platform instead. By my calculations my total loan book on SS will be reduced by a value approximately equal to the loan books of the 240 smallest loan books on the platform (my estimate using a very crude algorithm). My largest single loan on SS is 25k, given that I may in future only be able to grab peanuts in sub 1m loans, I will simply have to reduce levels across the entire loan book to maintain my target levels. Savingstream have a difficult balance to maintain trying to find the elusive 'sweet spot' I fear they may lose out with this one with all the cash backs they will have to deploy on the larger loans to get the 'big hitters' re-engaged in a 'short term flipping' mindset. What looks like 'good news' for the smaller investors may not look so good down the line when the larger loans (4m+) fail to launch and everyone loses a little bit of the diversification that is critical to building a balanced portfolio. Savingstream have worked hard to find a balance and should be applauded for their flexibility in trying new and innovative lending structures, my fear is that when lenders with six figure loan books start getting sub 1k slices of more than 50% of new loan launches (based on current <1m:>1m ratios), the effect on larger loans will seriously hinder their continued growth. Not a gripe (often too much of that on this forum for my taste) and believe the team at Savingstream should be left alone to make their own decisions given the enhanced access to the data that they have available. I will merely follow their actions with my own to balance my portfolio accordingly. They still rank up there as one of the best current platforms.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 19, 2015 1:14:37 GMT
Investor, I am not sure if your argument holds water tightly. Big hitters need to invest their money and therefore they need big loans and platforms like SS to put their money into. There aren't that many p2p platforms that deal with multi million loans satisfactorily, combined with the many positives of SS. Due to this, I think that SS will always be able to attract big hitters. They might have to adjust their balance like we all do.
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Post by solicitorious on Dec 19, 2015 1:31:05 GMT
I think a £100 to all, then next £100 distroed is an excellent approach. The big hitters will still be able to get big parts of the big loans ! But you miss the main point. Remember the 'big hitters' want to diversify as well. What this does is gives them a smaller chunk of some of the smaller loans which will simply means that to maintain the level of diversification that they are aiming for, they will simply reduce their holdings on the larger loans to maintain their pre-set status quo. That cash will be diversified cross platform instead. By my calculations my total loan book on SS will be reduced by a value approximately equal to the loan books of the 240 smallest loan books on the platform (my estimate using a very crude algorithm). My largest single loan on SS is 25k, given that I may in future only be able to grab peanuts in sub 1m loans, I will simply have to reduce levels across the entire loan book to maintain my target levels. Savingstream have a difficult balance to maintain trying to find the elusive 'sweet spot' I fear they may lose out with this one with all the cash backs they will have to deploy on the larger loans to get the 'big hitters' re-engaged in a 'short term flipping' mindset. What looks like 'good news' for the smaller investors may not look so good down the line when the larger loans (4m+) fail to launch and everyone loses a little bit of the diversification that is critical to building a balanced portfolio. Savingstream have worked hard to find a balance and should be applauded for their flexibility in trying new and innovative lending structures, my fear is that when lenders with six figure loan books start getting sub 1k slices of more than 50% of new loan launches (based on current <1m:>1m ratios), the effect on larger loans will seriously hinder their continued growth. Not a gripe (often too much of that on this forum for my taste) and believe the team at Savingstream should be left alone to make their own decisions given the enhanced access to the data that they have available. I will merely follow their actions with my own to balance my portfolio accordingly. They still rank up there as one of the best current platforms. A lot will depend on the point in the cycle you entered SS. I too have a six-figure portfolio here, but no loan is more than 2.8% of the total, and that will easily fall to about 1.8% by simply working through the current pipeline. I think my max at any time (save in the really early days) was no more than 10%, and that was for no more than a few days. I expect slow investment growth from here on in, effectively no more than the 1% interest to be earned per month. I guess I've reached my own personal "sweet spot"...
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Post by highlandtiger on Dec 19, 2015 1:32:00 GMT
We are all missing something that is staring us all in the face. Whilst we have had plenty of new loans to get our teeth into, we have had very few loans repaid. Once we get a raft of those loans paid back, there will be plenty of people wanting to reinvest their cash, and we'll be back to fastest fingers on the SM
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Investor
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Post by Investor on Dec 19, 2015 1:43:01 GMT
Investor, I am not sure if your argument holds water tightly. Let me know when you are sure  Big hitters need to invest their money and therefore they need big loans and platforms like SS to put their money into. AgreedThere aren't that many p2p platforms that deal with multi million loans satisfactorily, If by multi million you mean 2m+ then SS have never had the opportunity to deal with these loans satisfactorily. The only 2m+ loan closed so far failed to launch. My definition of satisfactorily includes all capital and interest repaid. Not in anyway implying that SS are not dealing with the multi million pound loans appropriately but 'I can't get no Satisfaction', as an old school mate used to say, until the loan is done and dusted.combined with the many positives of SS. AgreedDue to this, I think that SS will always be able to attract big hitters. But they will be smaller big hitters, that's the point. They might have to adjust their balance like we all do. Imagine the effect when the top 10 big hitters reduce their holdings by c20% due to reduced diversification. Anything SS can do to avoid them adjusting their balances is critical to the future growth of the business. You should change "they might have to" to "we really really don't want them to".
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 19, 2015 2:36:55 GMT
Do we have any idea roughly how many investors have been participating in recent SS loans? Seems to be about 1200. On a £million loan that would equate to an average of £833 each. Many people probably won't want that much, leading to perhaps a small bonus for the few that want more... Thanks for the info, and for pointing me to where I can find it myself. 1200 people wanting a piece of PBL074, which is £322k, would be an average of £268 each. If not everyone wants that much, then the maximum allocation might be more like £300.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Dec 19, 2015 9:14:54 GMT
How's this going to work? If there's enough, everybody who asks for £100 gets £100, else it's spread between them. If there's anything left, it's spread between those who ask for £200. If there's anything left, it's spread between those who ask for £300... Everybody who asks for more gets nowt? This is going to be fun... And we don't have to wait long to find out, either - 74's a tiddler-in-waiting. That is basically the AC approach on both the SM and launch processes. They do the logic slightly differently, but it gives the same end result.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 19, 2015 9:26:14 GMT
There aren't that many p2p platforms that deal with multi million loans satisfactorily, If by multi million you mean 2m+ then SS have never had the opportunity to deal with these loans satisfactorily. The only 2m+ loan closed so far failed to launch. My definition of satisfactorily includes all capital and interest repaid. Not in anyway implying that SS are not dealing with the multi million pound loans appropriately but 'I can't get no Satisfaction', as an old school mate used to say, until the loan is done and dusted. What are you referring to? If your milage is 2m+, I see 11 loans of such size; 10 of which have drawn down (The other one just gone live). The fact that SS can fill these loans and at the same time there is such a liquid SM shows that there is a lot of demand. Do you really want me to believe that big hitters do not want to be part of this? What I really feel is that big hitters are trying to squeeze small lenders out so that they have more of the pie for themselves.
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