SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 28, 2015 6:38:02 GMT
The Autobid tap seems entirely shut off now. Despite a handful of part sales yesterday afternoon, not a single Propery part at par sold overnight (down from 25-30 per day on 22nd / 23rd).
There must now be a significant reservoir of uninvested Autobiddy repayments building up in Fattening Coffers; if this carries on all week it will be millions by the New Year.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 28, 2015 6:55:43 GMT
The Autobid tap seems entirely shut off now. Despite a handful of part sales yesterday afternoon, not a single Propery part at par sold overnight (down from 25-30 per day on 22nd / 23rd). There must now be a significant reservoir of uninvested Autobiddy repayments building up in Fattening Coffers; if this carries on all week it will be millions by the New Year. Did Autobid run or did it not? I think it did, but to a pathetically small degree. The total SM sales tally advanced by £32k between 23:14 last night and 06:30 this morning, but that it includes manual buyers, although I would not expect that level of manual buyers at a time when most of us sleep. I sold 4 parts overnight which look like AB purchases rather than manual. I would normally expect to sell about 10 on a weekend day. Three of these were on the same loan (18252 Alton 3) to different buyers, so it would seem an unlikely coincidence that three manual buyers would each buy one part on the same loan from me overnight. My guess is that AB bought no more than about £20k, which is ridiculous considering £476k was due in from repayments [not all of this would have come in as I notice several loans went "Processing" last night - obviously the unexpected bank holidays have taken their toll at last, as was predicted on this forum].
PS. After my initial post yesterday morning, which started off this thread, it looks like Autobid started up again some time between 7 a.m. and 10 a.m. (it had killed off the last PM loan at 6:02 a.m.). Having sold 11 parts overnight at par, I sold a further 11 during that time slot, but nothing more after that.
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 28, 2015 8:23:05 GMT
I do not think Autobid is running. From 1500 parts nothing sold at par on the SM today (08:20). One manual purchaser of multiple parts (thanks). Perhaps if there is nothing on the PM it stops.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 28, 2015 8:26:23 GMT
Nothing here, either. I killed the goose, again.
Oh, wait. There goes a Liverpool 2.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 28, 2015 8:32:39 GMT
I do not think Autobid is running. From 1500 parts nothing sold at par on the SM today (08:20). One manual purchaser of multiple parts (thanks). Perhaps if there is nothing on the PM it stops. Nothing sold overnight for me either, not at par nor at premium.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 28, 2015 8:55:06 GMT
Well I still think Autobodgelet nibbled overnight for the reasons explained in my earlier post, but there must now be a big build-up in uninvested balances on Autobodgers' accounts. We can expect the same comatose impression from Autobye-byes tonight, but hopefully when F*****-up Cashflow come into the office tomorrow they'll figure out that they don't have enough PM loans to feed the accumulated balances and, fearing a lot of Autobodgers being less than gruntled about not being fully invested, might just let AutoBinge have a feeding frenzy on the SM during the day, or perhaps overnight 29th/30th - we will see.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 28, 2015 9:26:53 GMT
Autobodgers rarely look, that's why they use it, so I expect complaints will be few.
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min
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Post by min on Dec 28, 2015 10:20:26 GMT
Well I still think Autobodgelet nibbled overnight for the reasons explained in my earlier post, but there must now be a big build-up in uninvested balances on Autobodgers' accounts. We can expect the same comatose impression from Autobye-byes tonight, but hopefully when F*****-up Cashflow come into the office tomorrow they'll figure out that they don't have enough PM loans to feed the accumulated balances and, fearing a lot of Autobodgers being less than gruntled about not being fully invested, might just let AutoBinge have a feeding frenzy on the SM during the day, or perhaps overnight 29th/30th - we will see. Aotobodge would have more to spend if repayments had been made. One or two look like they crept through but vast majority are 'processing' which means they are 'not processing ' but are stuck.
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jayjay
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Post by jayjay on Dec 28, 2015 11:28:17 GMT
I have another additional theory to explain the favouring of the PM.
The Autobid calculation must have a problem with small autobidders who have not achieved 'diversity'. This is where the amount to be invested divided by the diversification parameter in Autobid is less than £20. Logically this would bar all small investors from ever investing in the PM as the only place where smaller chunks are available is on the SM. This we know is not happening. If I were FC looking for a simple solution to this I would simply allow these small (or indeed new larger) investors to buy £20 units on the PM until the required diversification is achieved.
There would then be a third big reason the SM is so often ignored 1) Large investors with high bid rate 2) Saturation levels on larger loans and also 3) Small investors barred by a diversity rule. If all three are active it is a miracle that autobid takes anything on the SM at all. All are logical positions and there is no magic lever/switch.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 28, 2015 11:46:10 GMT
I have another additional theory to explain the favouring of the PM. The Autobid calculation must have a problem with small autobidders who have not achieved 'diversity'. This is where the amount to be invested divided by the diversification parameter in Autobid is less than £20. Logically this would bar all small investors from ever investing in the PM as the only place where smaller chunks are available is on the SM. This we know is not happening. If I were FC looking for a simple solution to this I would simply allow these small (or indeed new larger) investors to buy £20 units on the PM until the required diversification is achieved. Which is exactly what AutoBodge did last year, when I was young and shiny-faced and knew no better than to let it at my initial <£2k toe-dip.
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metoo
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Post by metoo on Dec 28, 2015 12:46:38 GMT
Aotobodge would have more to spend if repayments had been made. One or two look like they crept through but vast majority are 'processing' which means they are 'not processing ' but are stuck. Don't forget the banner on the Summary page which warns that Direct Debits are held up over the bank holidays. Only property payments should have gone through.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 28, 2015 14:13:18 GMT
I have another additional theory to explain the favouring of the PM. The Autobid calculation must have a problem with small autobidders who have not achieved 'diversity'. This is where the amount to be invested divided by the diversification parameter in Autobid is less than £20. Logically this would bar all small investors from ever investing in the PM as the only place where smaller chunks are available is on the SM. This we know is not happening. If I were FC looking for a simple solution to this I would simply allow these small (or indeed new larger) investors to buy £20 units on the PM until the required diversification is achieved. Which is exactly what AutoBodge did last year, when I was young and shiny-faced and knew no better than to let it at my initial <£2k toe-dip. Autobodge will always bid (or even buy) £20 parts if the 1%/0.25% whatever calculation comes out smaller. I suppose it is faintly conceivable that it won't buy a £20.02 part (ie one on the SM with accrued interest) under those circumstances, but from (long ago!) memory I think it used to do so; only the principal counted. It is reasonable that is will be running slower last night, with many repayments stalled, but that doesn't explain 24/25th/26th differences, or the really big drop from 27th to 28th, or why most Sat/Sun are down on weekdays, when (with the PM generally well knotted) you could reasonably expect more.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 28, 2015 14:22:12 GMT
Aotobodge would have more to spend if repayments had been made. One or two look like they crept through but vast majority are 'processing' which means they are 'not processing ' but are stuck. Don't forget the banner on the Summary page which warns that Direct Debits are held up over the bank holidays. Only property payments should have gone through. And property part payments are quite a small fraction of the total return, unless one of the accidentally repaid the capital (which would be a manual payment, and therefore would have been held up too) .. maybe 1/8th of the normal total (although my par sales last night were down by rather more than 1:8 from the night of 27th, but the numbers are still too small to get significant results from).
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 29, 2015 7:29:28 GMT
Well I sold 3 property parts at par overnight which is a record low since I started trading in these parts a few months ago, and total SM sales per the Stats page between 22:40 last night and 06:44 this morning was £21k. I very much doubt that my 3 sales were to manual buyers, particularly as one was in Upminster at a paltry 7.5%. I therefore think that, as for the night before, Autobodge just had a very small nibble at the SM market. There have been a number of theories of varying degrees of complexity for Autobodge's recent behaviour, but I am looking for simple explanations as I don't get the feeling Faintly Complex are that sophisticated. As was mentioned yesterday by min, most repayments failed for 28th. As Feeling Charitable give their staff time off over Xmas, no-one is around to process the direct debits which have no doubt been paid (a few days in advance) in respect of repayments due on 28th and 29th, hence the only money "coming in" would be from property loans where the interest is withheld at drawdown. Of the £476k and £314k which I previously mentioned were due in repayments and interest on 28th and 29th, only £27k and £13k were interest from property loans. It seems probable therefore that, notwithstanding the substantial backlog of Autobodgers' cash that must be available from previous days repayments, what Autobodge spends on the SM is some function of how much money comes in that day. Thus over the last two days, the amount spent has been so tiny that some sellers sold nothing at all. Perhaps I was lucky to sell 4 and 3 respectively on these two days, but I do have a lot on my stall at the moment.
We should now expect to see more Frenetic Capture of SM loan parts by Autobodge this week as Full Coffers process the direct debits for the last two days, even if it doesn't also spend accumulated reserves from previous days when little or nothing was available on the PM. We will see!
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 29, 2015 8:57:51 GMT
Well I sold 3 property parts at par overnight which is a record low since I started trading in these parts a few months ago... I have sold none so far today, but I did sell 2 late last night. As was mentioned yesterday by min, most repayments failed for 28th. As Feeling Charitable give their staff time off over Xmas, no-one is around to process the direct debits which have no doubt been paid (a few days in advance) in respect of repayments due on 28th and 29th, hence the only money "coming in" would be from property loans where the interest is withheld at drawdown. I assume that the payment processing is mostly automatic. The banner message states that DD payments are submitted 5 days earlier, so for the 28th that is the 23rd. I understand that these take 2 working days for the banks to process so the money should be arriving at FC's bank today. If my assumption about automatic processing is correct the payments for the 28th should mostly be fixed tonight, even without any manual intervention. As an aside do you assume that there will be no new loans this week?
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