jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Mar 30, 2016 9:02:08 GMT
It now has been defaulted ( is this a first, after only two missed payments?!). Apparently, however, Rebs do not share your faith in the security, as they rate the percentage chances of recovery as 'unknown'. I suspect the indignity of being slapped round the face with rubber cheques has woken ReBs up. ReBs percentage chances of recovery are directly proportional to my chances of investing in ReBs. So for now, my chances of investing in new loans are also 'unknown'. Well, my chances of investing in new loans are FAR from unknown..................zilch, nada, nil, not on your nelly 
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 30, 2016 9:14:26 GMT
I suspect the indignity of being slapped round the face with rubber cheques has woken ReBs up. ReBs percentage chances of recovery are directly proportional to my chances of investing in ReBs. So for now, my chances of investing in new loans are also 'unknown'. Well, my chances of investing in new loans are FAR from unknown..................zilch, nada, nil, not on your nelly I don't understand why you should think this. There was a perfectly decent business dealt a terrible blow by the oil price collapse at the worst possible moment. The managers are scrabbling around trying to hold all the creditors at bay, presumably with the hope of rescuing something from this disaster not of their making. I agree that the managers might have been better advised to make their own apologies on the platform, but don't forget they are into the bank for a much bigger amount, and all tyheir trade creditors are presuambly stacked up. As for us my guess is that, given the charge on the property, we might come out of it OK it's too soon to say. It seems highly likely most of the creditors will have to endure a "haircut" at least. What REBS absolutely have to do is to take it step by step, to be able to show the judge that their actions have been lawful, and it seems to me that this is what they are doing. If the judge decides there has been a missed step or some such, and given they are likely to have some sympathy with the firm and its staff they might be looking for excuses to let the firm and the guarantors off, it's very important to do it by the book. This might not be done and dusted until 2017. My way of investing with REBS is to invest a little in a lot. If you are getting 18% interest there is definitely a reason, and that reason is the firm might not pay you back. REBS is still my highest performing platform at 13+% after defaults, with some hope of recovery in this and a couple of other loans which could bring it up to 14 or 15%.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Mar 30, 2016 9:18:14 GMT
I only wish my ReBS "Interest Earnings" were rising anything like as fast as my "Defaults" (which have now doubled month-on-month for the last 3 months running). rebsrep, could you please clarify what is intended by the new "Recovery Probability" column added to the Defaults tab: Does, for example, " 20%" denote a 20% probability of the loan recovering anything (which could then be very much less than full recovery) or that the ultimate recovery is estimated at 20% of the defaulted sum? Or is really just a directional indication of ReBS confidence in making any recovery, akin to Funding Circle's red / amber / green assessment? |
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jonno
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Post by jonno on Mar 30, 2016 9:38:02 GMT
shimself; my view is not solely based on the "Scottish Play". This is merely the proverbial straw that has rendered my camel unrideable in future sweepstakes,as in my view, that is what investing in ReBS has become.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Mar 30, 2016 9:45:22 GMT
Well, my chances of investing in new loans are FAR from unknown..................zilch, nada, nil, not on your nelly I don't understand why you should think this. There was a perfectly decent business dealt a terrible blow by the oil price collapse at the worst possible moment. The managers are scrabbling around trying to hold all the creditors at bay, presumably with the hope of rescuing something from this disaster not of their making. I agree that the managers might have been better advised to make their own apologies on the platform, but don't forget they are into the bank for a much bigger amount, and all tyheir trade creditors are presuambly stacked up. As for us my guess is that, given the charge on the property, we might come out of it OK it's too soon to say. It seems highly likely most of the creditors will have to endure a "haircut" at least. What REBS absolutely have to do is to take it step by step, to be able to show the judge that their actions have been lawful, and it seems to me that this is what they are doing. If the judge decides there has been a missed step or some such, and given they are likely to have some sympathy with the firm and its staff they might be looking for excuses to let the firm and the guarantors off, it's very important to do it by the book. This might not be done and dusted until 2017. My way of investing with REBS is to invest a little in a lot. If you are getting 18% interest there is definitely a reason, and that reason is the firm might not pay you back. REBS is still my highest performing platform at 13+% after defaults, with some hope of recovery in this and a couple of other loans which could bring it up to 14 or 15%. : I am with you about this business and the external factors that pressed on it. What I do not like is the underhand tactics that were used by the managers of this company. Re: Haircut - I have just had one, so not much hair left. Please, may I ask the "hairdresser" to watch my scalp?  By the way, I am far from 13% profit on this platform, in fact, I am about -8%.
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Post by rebsrep on Mar 30, 2016 10:06:40 GMT
I only wish my ReBS "Interest Earnings" were rising anything like as fast as my "Defaults" (which have now doubled month-on-month for the last 3 months running). rebsrep , could you please clarify what is intended by the new "Recovery Probability" column added to the Defaults tab: Does, for example, " 20%" denote a 20% probability of the loan recovering anything (which could then be very much less than full recovery) or that the ultimate recovery is estimated at 20% of the defaulted sum? Or is really just a directional indication of ReBS confidence in making any recovery, akin to Funding Circle's red / amber / green assessment? It is this: "ultimate recovery is estimated at X% of the defaulted sum"
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Mar 30, 2016 13:27:40 GMT
Well, my chances of investing in new loans are FAR from unknown..................zilch, nada, nil, not on your nelly I don't understand why you should think this. There was a perfectly decent business dealt a terrible blow by the oil price collapse at the worst possible moment. The managers are scrabbling around trying to hold all the creditors at bay, presumably with the hope of rescuing something from this disaster not of their making. I agree that the managers might have been better advised to make their own apologies on the platform, but don't forget they are into the bank for a much bigger amount, and all tyheir trade creditors are presuambly stacked up. As for us my guess is that, given the charge on the property, we might come out of it OK it's too soon to say. It seems highly likely most of the creditors will have to endure a "haircut" at least. What REBS absolutely have to do is to take it step by step, to be able to show the judge that their actions have been lawful, and it seems to me that this is what they are doing. If the judge decides there has been a missed step or some such, and given they are likely to have some sympathy with the firm and its staff they might be looking for excuses to let the firm and the guarantors off, it's very important to do it by the book. This might not be done and dusted until 2017. My way of investing with REBS is to invest a little in a lot. If you are getting 18% interest there is definitely a reason, and that reason is the firm might not pay you back. REBS is still my highest performing platform at 13+% after defaults, with some hope of recovery in this and a couple of other loans which could bring it up to 14 or 15%. Your analysis of the trading position may not be the fault of the company, but writing cheques that are going to bounce is deception. I purchased some units on the SM after ReBs stated they were in receipt of cheques to cover the 2 outstanding payments. I feel deceived. This is a relatively large loan by ReBs standards so it will effect lenders disproportionately. B%$£@#?s, while I've been writing this another loan has gone pop and sent my net return negative for the first time, (NB last month my net return was 13%).
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Mar 30, 2016 13:29:03 GMT
I only wish my ReBS "Interest Earnings" were rising anything like as fast as my "Defaults" (which have now doubled month-on-month for the last 3 months running). rebsrep , could you please clarify what is intended by the new "Recovery Probability" column added to the Defaults tab: Does, for example, " 20%" denote a 20% probability of the loan recovering anything (which could then be very much less than full recovery) or that the ultimate recovery is estimated at 20% of the defaulted sum? Or is really just a directional indication of ReBS confidence in making any recovery, akin to Funding Circle's red / amber / green assessment? It is this: "ultimate recovery is estimated at X% of the defaulted sum" : So "Unknown" - does it imply this loan is so messed up that we have no idea, or is it that it is too early in the process to predict? If the latter, do you know when you start having better feel for it?
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Mar 30, 2016 13:31:34 GMT
I don't understand why you should think this. There was a perfectly decent business dealt a terrible blow by the oil price collapse at the worst possible moment. The managers are scrabbling around trying to hold all the creditors at bay, presumably with the hope of rescuing something from this disaster not of their making. I agree that the managers might have been better advised to make their own apologies on the platform, but don't forget they are into the bank for a much bigger amount, and all tyheir trade creditors are presuambly stacked up. As for us my guess is that, given the charge on the property, we might come out of it OK it's too soon to say. It seems highly likely most of the creditors will have to endure a "haircut" at least. What REBS absolutely have to do is to take it step by step, to be able to show the judge that their actions have been lawful, and it seems to me that this is what they are doing. If the judge decides there has been a missed step or some such, and given they are likely to have some sympathy with the firm and its staff they might be looking for excuses to let the firm and the guarantors off, it's very important to do it by the book. This might not be done and dusted until 2017. My way of investing with REBS is to invest a little in a lot. If you are getting 18% interest there is definitely a reason, and that reason is the firm might not pay you back. REBS is still my highest performing platform at 13+% after defaults, with some hope of recovery in this and a couple of other loans which could bring it up to 14 or 15%. Your analysis of the trading position may not be the fault of the company, but writing cheques that are going to bounce is deception. I purchased some units on the SM after ReBs stated they were in receipt of cheques to cover the 2 outstanding payments. I feel deceived. This is a relatively large loan by ReBs standards so it will effect lenders disproportionately. B%$£@#?s, while I've been writing this another loan has gone pop and sent my net return negative for the first time, (NB last month my net return was 13%). My sympathies; join the club.
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Post by rebsrep on Mar 30, 2016 14:46:21 GMT
It is this: "ultimate recovery is estimated at X% of the defaulted sum" : So "Unknown" - does it imply this loan is so messed up that we have no idea, or is it that it is too early in the process to predict? If the latter, do you know when you start having better feel for it? This communication is going out to lenders soon, below is a preview. "You may have noticed that we have recently added a column called ‘Recovery probability’. This shows the anticipated percentage of your capital that we expect to recover on a specific loan. This has been added to keep you informed about the anticipated outcome of the recovery process as it develops. At the outset we will usually set the probability to our current average expected rate of recovery and amend it as the process progresses and the probability of recovery becomes clearer. Please be aware that this is an estimate and that various factors can influence the probability of recovery, which may change various times throughout the recovery process." To answer the specific question about "unknown" this is simply that we are still uploading the percentages to the site for this new feature. As per the above paragraph, most will start at the average rate and then be adjusted as and when the recovery process develops.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 30, 2016 21:34:24 GMT
"You may have noticed that we have recently added a column called ‘Recovery probability’. This shows the anticipated percentage of your capital that we expect to recover on a specific loan. This has been added to keep you informed about the anticipated outcome of the recovery process as it develops. At the outset we will usually set the probability to our current average expected rate of recovery and amend it as the process progresses and the probability of recovery becomes clearer. Please be aware that this is an estimate and that various factors can influence the probability of recovery, which may change various times throughout the recovery process." To answer the specific question about "unknown" this is simply that we are still uploading the percentages to the site for this new feature. As per the above paragraph, most will start at the average rate and then be adjusted as and when the recovery process develops. If you copy the table of problem loans into a spreadsheet and multiply out the recovery probability by the amount (to produce estimated recovery amount) and then total that you get a new figure (in my case this weighted total is about 35% recovery). I think you could use that. If I could work out how calculate the return that would be nice please.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Mar 31, 2016 6:57:16 GMT
Nice idea, but given that any 'recovery' percentages are, arguably, lottery numbers pulled out of a hat...
Forgive my scepticism, but untill there exists a history of real recoveries actually being achieved, I think I'll stick with the hat method.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Mar 31, 2016 7:02:16 GMT
Nice idea, but given that any 'recovery' percentages are, arguably, lottery numbers pulled out of a hat... Forgive my scepticism, but untill there exists a history of real recoveries actually being achieved, I think I'll stick with the hat method. Wellyes but the published figure on the dashboard assumes zero recovery which is also unlikely. In the case of lu****gs (the transport outfit) for example it is wrong to assume zero recovery.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Mar 31, 2016 12:00:57 GMT
Nice idea, but given that any 'recovery' percentages are, arguably, lottery numbers pulled out of a hat... Forgive my scepticism, but untill there exists a history of real recoveries actually being achieved, I think I'll stick with the hat method. I agree with you, but on the other hand we need to start from somewhere. (Even if it is over the rainbow.)
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 20, 2016 16:45:02 GMT
/mod hat off
I see from today's update that the voted-for (not by me, chums!) recovery plan fell at the first fence. How does that pop song go .. "We won't get fooled again!" .. something along those lines. Come on ReBS, just send in the killer-attack-lawyers and dispense with the 'Mr Nice Guy' stuff. 8<.
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