skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 20, 2016 14:04:29 GMT
Since this a.m. odds have lengthened on leave.......Corals offering 10/3 others mainly 3/1......stay odds mainly 1/4
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Post by earthbound on Jun 20, 2016 14:10:03 GMT
Sorry, I disagree - that poll is also showing weakening support for leave over recent days - see attached updated analysis. Not by much admittedly, but enough over several days to be noticeable.
hi mrclondon I took a quick look at the actual front page bar graph and it was showing 81%, just checked now and still 81% , not looked at any other analysis tho.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 20, 2016 14:16:52 GMT
I rarely agree with the Graudian but on this occasion I must applaud it for what appears to be a fair and unbiased commentary on this tragic affair: “It is too soon to say whether the awful, violent death of Ms Cox will have any bearing on the EU referendum, but if it does not it won’t be for lack of shameful effort on the part of elements in the mainstream media to make political capital out of this still largely unexplained human tragedy.” off-guardian.org/2016/06/18/history-as-ghastly-repetition-anna-lindh-jo-cox/comment-page-1/ |
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Post by mrclondon on Jun 20, 2016 14:26:13 GMT
Sorry, I disagree - that poll is also showing weakening support for leave over recent days - see attached updated analysis. Not by much admittedly, but enough over several days to be noticeable.
Have you had any thoughts about which way the decision will go? Have you moved any investments around in anticipation? OK ... accepting I may end up with egg on my face in a few days time ....
My belief is the mainstream polls are wrong to be showing essentially a 50:50 split, I think the polling organisations are making major errors of judgement in the social cohesion of voters (aka the populus indices that samford71 referenced www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/ ). This article in the Telegraph (link) explains a bit more about the potential risks of assuming social cohesion.
Self selection polls, such as the one I have referenced in this thread, and those run by almost every newspaper website are showing 70% plus leave. Such polls are known to be unreliable, but I'm struggling to remember a case when they were so fundamentally adrift from public opinion. I'm hypothesising that those responding to such online polls are the better educated or more intelligent (in the sense of questioning the world around us) in society. The less educated / less intelligent that are motivated by the political process enough to vote are in this case (I'd suggest) more likely to vote leave than remain. However the poll I have referenced is limited to UK residents only so will miss the huge remain majority in Gibraltar and the expat communities.
London is assumed to be heavily pro remain. Where I am its very hard to tell, there are no posters / banners etc out for either side as such are banned under local bylaws (its very difficult even to put for sale signs up here). However there is some evidence in a neighbouring borough the remain majority isn't going to be huge. I've seen no effort at canvassing in my immediate area, despite the fact that remain should be targeting this area.
Its generally accepted that leave supporters will be more highly motivated to actually get out and vote than remain supporters.
A couple of days ago I read an article about how to interpret the early result declarations. One will be Sunderland (as usual) and it was suggested a leave vote there of 55-57% would imply a national breakeven, and the other (excluding the City which will be huge remain) will be Wandsworth in south London where a remain majority of 60-66% will also imply a national breakeven.
So after all that waffle (and an admission I've not looked at todays headlines yet) I'm expecting a vote for leave.
Have I moved any investments about ? No, nor do I intend to. The only thing I have done is to avoid recent loans in Northern Ireland, and exit most p2p loans with less than 90 days to run. I'm expecting within 3 months any initial panic will have subsided and SM operation will be back to normal irrespective of the result.
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Post by mrclondon on Jun 20, 2016 14:28:04 GMT
Sorry, I disagree - that poll is also showing weakening support for leave over recent days - see attached updated analysis. Not by much admittedly, but enough over several days to be noticeable.
hi mrclondon I took a quick look at the actual front page bar graph and it was showing 81%, just checked now and still 81% , not looked at any other analysis tho. The 81% headline figure is irrelevant, that is historical and based on too many votes for any new votes to change it. You have to look as I have done in my analysis at the daily split of votes being added to the poll.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 20, 2016 14:38:38 GMT
You have to look as I have done in my analysis at the daily split of votes being added to the poll. Alternatively, the FT have been running a rolling poll-of-polls since last September - with the three lines (Remain/Leave/Dunno) charted. The methodology and all source poll results are listed. ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/Last week, it had a brief tick - for the first time since Sept '15 - to Leave being mildly ahead. It's gone back to tied now. <crosses fingers>
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 20, 2016 14:56:20 GMT
For what it’s worth, the poll that is the subject of this thread remains fairly constant.
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jimbob
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Post by jimbob on Jun 20, 2016 15:12:35 GMT
mrclondon That's a very good post on the matter and I think you're Wandsworth/Sunderland analysis is a good one.
Sunderland 53-47 Leave - Remain implies Leave ahead I think from an analysis done by Chris Hanretty.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 20, 2016 15:39:59 GMT
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 20, 2016 16:45:51 GMT
A lot of the postal votes would have been sent back last week, when Leave was ahead, which might have an impact.
Another factor is getting your vote out; older people, who are more inclined to vote Leave, will turn out in their droves, whether it rains or not. I think it's going to be sunny, so a high turnout may favour Remain.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 20, 2016 17:04:50 GMT
Obama urges us to stay in the EU and Dave warns of WW3 if we leave??? Bullsh*t off-guardian.org/If you go round believing sites as loopy as that, no wonder you believe the total and utter mis-quotes accusing Cameron of saying "Exit will cause WW3".
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 20, 2016 17:37:44 GMT
Obama urges us to stay in the EU and Dave warns of WW3 if we leave??? Bullsh*t off-guardian.org/If you go round believing sites as loopy as that, no wonder you believe the total and utter mis-quotes accusing Cameron of saying "Exit will cause WW3". We’ve been blitzed with so much twaddle by the Remain campaign that I’m becoming punch drunk and can’t tell the difference between a Graudian and an Off Guardian article. Mind you, is there usually much difference?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 20, 2016 17:39:22 GMT
If you go round believing sites as loopy as that, no wonder you believe the total and utter mis-quotes accusing Cameron of saying "Exit will cause WW3". We’ve been blitzed with so much twaddle by the Remain campaign that I’m becoming punch drunk and can’t tell the difference between a Graudian and an Off Guardian article. Mind you, is there much difference normally? Where "Off Guardian" is a site founded by people kicked off the Guardian's comment pages for being too loopy. Or, rather, it's the resurrection of that site after an internal conflict closed it all down... Mmm-hmm. Nice bit of credibility there.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 20, 2016 17:40:39 GMT
It's funny how different perspectives and opinions can be, presented with the same material. I don't like quite a lot of the remain campaign approach, but at the least the majority of it (imho) is based on some kind of reasoned analysis, whereas I look at the leave campaign and see a lot of at best bluster and at worst vitriolic bile. Certainly an almost complete lack of any reasoned analysis.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 20, 2016 17:51:13 GMT
It's funny how different perspectives and opinions can be, presented with the same material. I don't like quite a lot of the remain campaign approach, but at the least the majority of it (imho) is based on some kind of reasoned analysis, whereas I look at the leave campaign and see a lot of at best bluster and at worst vitriolic bile. Certainly an almost complete lack of any reasoned analysis. Where was the reasoned analysis in Cameron and Osborne’s threat of an austerity budget if we vote for Brexit when they know full well that they wouldn’t get it through the commons because of Tory rebels voting with Labour and the SNP? Anyway my reasoned analysis is that I’m off for a pint! 
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