registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 4, 2016 15:56:07 GMT
The impact of Brexit on UK universities link, and thus indirectly on the demand/value of student accommodation, is something I have considered but frankly I don't have enough knowledge of to quantify the impact. Me neither, but given the Brexit introduced uncertainty I sold out of all student housing development related loans immediately following the vote. Precisely because I can't (yet) quantify the impact. Leave aside the anything else and if there's a significant drop in foreign students a lot of UK universities are going to be even more strapped for cash than they are at the moment. Like a few other areas (London, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, care homes, agriculture, property backed.... there's not a lot left  ). I would like to see some indication of the expected direction of travel before reassessing my appetite for related loans.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Jul 4, 2016 18:54:42 GMT
The impact of Brexit on UK universities link, and thus indirectly on the demand/value of student accommodation, is something I have considered but frankly I don't have enough knowledge of to quantify the impact. Me neither, but given the Brexit introduced uncertainty I sold out of all student housing development related loans immediately following the vote. Precisely because I can't (yet) quantify the impact. Leave aside the anything else and if there's a significant drop in foreign students a lot of UK universities are going to be even more strapped for cash than they are at the moment. Like a few other areas (London, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, care homes, agriculture, property backed.... there's not a lot left ). I would like to see some indication of the expected direction of travel before reassessing my appetite for related loans. It just got a HUGE amount cheaper for foreign students to do a university course
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 4, 2016 19:03:29 GMT
Yep. Assuming they're allowed in........
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Jul 4, 2016 19:25:49 GMT
Yep. Assuming they're allowed in........ Majority foreign students are from outside EU, so unlikely to change
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Maestro
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Post by Maestro on Jul 4, 2016 20:27:23 GMT
The impact of Brexit on UK universities link, and thus indirectly on the demand/value of student accommodation, is something I have considered but frankly I don't have enough knowledge of to quantify the impact. I have a number of loans which are secured on student accommodation, most of which service universities that are (to be polite) not recognized internationally for either their research or teaching. Instead, their attraction to foreign students is the ability to demonstrate fluency in English and their proximity to the largest single job market in the world (Europe). The bulk of the demand for UK university places from international students stems from Asia (45%) but Europe is next at around 35% and that could be threatened by Brexit. If you have to pay £25-35k/annum, rather than £9k, for a mediocre UK university then US universities (or staying at a home uni) starts to look far more competitive. I suppose one counter to reduced European student numbers, is that Asian student numbers could increase given the fees are now cheaper with a weaker currency. I suppose my general fear when lending on student accommodation is that young people realize suddenly that paying substantial amounts of money for many university degrees just isn't a good investment anymore and the whole student pod building frenzy is therefore a bubble. This was something I was looking into over the weekend, as I also have some (albeit reduced) exposure to student accommodation development. So here are some thoughts. From what I can gather EU students are less than 10% of total UK's student population at university level, but UK can certainly say good bye to many of them if they had to pay non-EU fees. This release from Uk student Reit mention 6%: otp.investis.com/clients/uk/empiric1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=918&newsid=744673It does look like that EU makes up 30% percent of international students. institutions.ukcisa.org.uk//info-for-universities-colleges--schools/policy-research--statistics/research--statistics/international-students-in-uk-he/#Worth nothing that just China supplies more students than all of top ten EU countries combined! I found it interesting that there was no huge selling on student reit, when comparing to commercial property reits like British land. Its probably still trading around NAV, whereas some open ended commercial funds are blocking withdrawals e.g. Standard life due to massive outflows. Short term I can see some developments becoming difficult to shift and possibly some could fail in a recession scenario. Longer term its difficult to see Asian student demand decreasing because of Brexit effects, and as you say weak currency helps. Having said that I have reduced my exposure to high risk property loans quite a bit (e.g. those based on lands) since Brexit, and also to property equities like property partner (which I had been gradually selling since April/May), very concerned about London property.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jul 4, 2016 21:43:08 GMT
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 5, 2016 7:51:43 GMT
From what I can gather EU students are less than 10% of total UK's student population at university level, but UK can certainly say good bye to many of them if they had to pay non-EU fees. As far as I know (and I don't know much about anything, and less about the rules of overseas fees) there is nothing to say that universities would have to hike fees to EU students, only that they will no longer have to charge the same as UK students. There are a number of post graduate courses which charge £20k+ for all students UK, EU and all!
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 5, 2016 7:57:11 GMT
I would hope the various P2P platforms lower their upper LTV limits. in a small way!
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archie
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Post by archie on Jul 5, 2016 8:46:41 GMT
I would hope the various P2P platforms lower their upper LTV limits. in a small way! Indeed, I have most of my P2P funds with LI 
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jul 5, 2016 11:12:20 GMT
Earlier report
"(ShareCast News) - London stocks opened in the red on Tuesday ahead of services data and the Bank of England's financial stability report, as worries about Brexit continued to weigh on investors' minds.
Markit services PMI at 0930 BST and it's expected to show a decline to 52.7 in June from 53.5 the previous month. The Financial Stability Report is due at 1030 BST.
CMC Markets' Michael Hewson said: "The shock fall in yesterday's UK construction PMI for June to seven year lows of 46 was a big surprise and doesn't bode well for the sector heading into Q3, and while manufacturing improved, the main focus today rests even more importantly on the UK services sector which has borne the weight on its shoulders for the past few years of the UK's economic outperformance.
"We need to see a decent June number here or we could well see a situation that sees the UK economy potentially stagnate in Q2. A slow down from 53.5 to 52.8 is expected ahead of the latest Bank of England financial stability report."
The financial stability report at 1030 BST is expected to reveal further details of post-Brexit risks to the UK economy.
Elsewhere, Chinese Caixin services PMI for June rose to 52.7 from 51.2, marking the fastest increase in 11 months.
In corporate news, housebuilder Persimmon slumped even as it said it was still too soon to judge the effect of Brexit on the new homes market, adding that trading through the first half had been "strong".
"We believe that market fundamentals remain strong, supported by long term unfulfilled demand, and that the UK housing market will continue to provide good opportunities for those companies with the right strategic focus and the balance sheet strength to navigate future changes in trading conditions."
Fellow housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments were also in the red.
Imagination Technologies dropped as it swung to a loss for the year ended 30 April as revenue fell amid a significant restructuring of the business."
The Footsie opened circa 6520 rose briefly to 6535 then sank to 6475, at ~ 0945hours headed north, is currently 6550 ish
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jul 5, 2016 13:06:30 GMT
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jul 5, 2016 13:40:26 GMT
Too right, I'm gonna stock up with some King Goblin tonight!
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). I would like to see some indication of the expected direction of travel before reassessing my appetite for related loans.
