Brexit - Impact on P2P

LTV is just a number. There are 10% LTVs that I wouldn't touch with someone else's. Issue is basis of valuation (recalc LTV on estimate of recoverable amount in say 6 months and certainly not Gross Development Value) and marketability of the property in a downturn. In 2008 the only commercial property selling in London was that with good covenant tenants ie secure income. There are still areas where houses are very difficult to sell, so in a downturn... 

Nope. All it will do is prompt a letter from the BoE to the Chancellor explaining that it's a temporary blip that will fall out of the numbers a year later. That sort of thing is self-correcting just through the passage of time.

More likely if there is any sign of significant disruption is a rate cut, perhaps to zero, as an economic stimulus and to encourage banks to lend more if they have reduced or stopped that.

No impact.

The corporate propaganda we heard over the months was to protect THEIR wealth, power and influence, and not ours.

The bullion in my portfolio did great overnight!!!

Here are some thoughts from BondMason on the impact of Brexit.  The conclusion (to save clicking through): 

Over time, 3-6+ months, the volatile market fluctuations are likely to begin to settle down (back to their usual levels of volatility), and an accepted level of exchange rate pricing may emerge. This timescale may extend if Britain moves into a recession, or has a prolonged economic downturn as a result of the exit vote, or other external factors come into play – e.g. Frexit, Nexit or Trump winning the US presidential race.



Lending overall is likely to decrease, but this may actually accelerate the shift of lending from traditional providers of finance to newer providers of finance – e.g. P2P Platforms. We [BondMason] are also opening up other sources of lending opportunities for our clients, which we will be able to report on in the coming months.



Overall, we expect there to be a good level of loan investment opportunities, but the economic backdrop may be more challenging. We typically take a conservative approach to investing, and this may be more pronounced over the next 6-12 months.

Admittedly, not exactly ground-breaking stuff - but I thought it worth sharing here.

Iv'e got an ad at the bottom of my screen; it is Fred Flintstone with his hands in the air with joy shouting "Yabba, dabba doo"   I think he likes Brexit 

I'd go with P2P but perhaps steer clear of property development and related businesses for a while. Property development might experience slower refinacing/sales or reduced sale prices while things like the moving company loan at MoneyThing is in effect investing in a business leveraging the number of property transactions. Retail property is perhaps highest risk. Central London is a bit of a toss-up with a lower Pound possibly attracting buyers vs higher stamp duty doing the opposite. There's also a lot of supply of high end properties pending for the high end part of the central London market.

The lower Pound will cause a short term blip in inflation but most of that should leave the inflation index in the first year with a bit following on in higher costs in the following one.

I have bought quite a few NSI inflation linked tax free bonds and so far I have not cashed any of them.

I like having a hedge against inflation and inflation linked ultra safe (?) investments are few and far between.

I have invested significantly more in P2P than in NSANDI though.