cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853 
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Aug 21, 2016 12:49:50 GMT
Updates for 77-80 are the most concerning. Claims that the land has been re-zoned (potential value over £75M) remain unsubstantiated. Even if the loans repay, I want to know if the these updates are true or not. Why concerning? The loans are secured against the land, which was valued purely as farmland with no "hope" value whatsoever. Unless arable land prices have plummeted (which I don't think they have) then the security should be as good as the day you invested. Any potential for future development gain (however distant) would be icing on the cake. I certainly don't think this loan will default, but I wouldn't want to be invested in it if it did. Farmland is hard to sell, and my guess from the following article is that this land is worth slightly less after Brexit... www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/16/price-of-farmland-falls-as-concerns-over-future-of-eu-payments-s/
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2016 13:19:12 GMT
Why concerning? The loans are secured against the land, which was valued purely as farmland with no "hope" value whatsoever. Unless arable land prices have plummeted (which I don't think they have) then the security should be as good as the day you invested. Any potential for future development gain (however distant) would be icing on the cake. I certainly don't think this loan will default, but I wouldn't want to be invested in it if it did. Farmland is hard to sell, and my guess from the following article is that this land is worth slightly less after Brexit... www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/16/price-of-farmland-falls-as-concerns-over-future-of-eu-payments-s/I think we should not overrate the statements of journalist. The decrease in value of land registered in the article is around 4% and is not worrying at all. Much more important, as usual for SS, is the valuation. If that is conservative with the 30% margin we stand secure.
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Aug 21, 2016 13:46:40 GMT
I think we should not overrate the statements of journalist. The decrease in value of land registered in the article is around 4% and is not worrying at all. Much more important, as usual for SS, is the valuation. If that is conservative with the 30% margin we stand secure. Not going to disagree with that; the security looks relatively sound (and is roughly the price the borrower paid for it, which is always a good indication of true market value). It's also worth pointing out to any concerned investors tied up in these 4 Farm Loans, that there was no indication prior to the update that rezoning was going to occur during the loan term; this always looked to be a long-term punt by our borrower with no realistic chance of any immediate progress; which is exactly why the borrower he is looking for a 6year tenant to run the farm (and keep up the value of the arable land). That update threw investors slightly because it was unexpected, but without rezoning the security is no worse off than when the loan went live (besides the slight negative movement after Brexit).
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,875
Likes: 7,924
|
Post by SteveT on Aug 21, 2016 13:52:18 GMT
I'm hoping for a healthy 6+ month extension as there's precious little else to reinvest in at this time of year!
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Aug 21, 2016 13:55:22 GMT
I'm hoping for a healthy 6+ month extension as there's precious little else to reinvest in at this time of year! Well... the latest update from SS for the farm loans... Which, given the quality of SS updates recently, means a 6 months extension is highly likely 
|
|
|
|
Post by dualinvestor on Aug 21, 2016 14:38:53 GMT
............................. which is exactly why the borrower he is looking for a 6year tenant to run the farm (and keep up the value of the arable land). That update threw investors slightly because it was unexpected, but without rezoning the security is no worse off than when the loan went live (besides the slight negative movement after Brexit). So if the borrower finds a tenant he will get c.£130 per acre rent (Savills October 2015 Rent survey +5%) for 930 acres, approximately £1.2million pa, although for grade 2 land this might be a little optimistic. Meanwhile he is paying 18% on £9.2 million or £1.65million. The exit route for SS lenders might not be re-zoning, but it is ffor the project as a whole. From the loan particulars "This is a strategic land masterplanning project to re-zone the usage of the land from agricultural to multi-purpose residential and commercial development."
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,875
Likes: 7,924
|
Post by SteveT on Aug 21, 2016 14:54:46 GMT
The near-term exit route is via the borrower refinancing, presumably to something longer term at a significantly lower rate (per the update of 26/7)
|
|
|
|
Post by dualinvestor on Aug 21, 2016 19:10:04 GMT
Why concerning? The loans are secured against the land, which was valued purely as farmland with no "hope" value whatsoever. Unless arable land prices have plummeted (which I don't think they have) then the security should be as good as the day you invested. Any potential for future development gain (however distant) would be icing on the cake. It's the updates that are concerning; claims that the land has been re-zoned are unsubstantiated and I suspect may not be true. Some people may have invested in these loans (or chose not to try to sell) as a result of the re-zoning claims. It would seem to me that savingstream updates are generally unreliable, there are endless promises of imminent repayment unfulfilled, absence of perinent information, naming of non-existent financial institutions and this to name but a few.
|
|
|
|
Post by dualinvestor on Aug 21, 2016 20:24:37 GMT
It would seem to me that savingstream updates are generally unreliable, there are endless promises of imminent repayment unfulfilled, absence of perinent information, naming of non-existent financial institutions and this to name but a few. And yet, in the meantime, 99 times out of 100 that lovely interest just keeps rolling in month after month followed by a late but happy repayment. So far, but as there have been two defaults and less than 100 loans outstanding perhaps not 99 times out of a hundred, and it will be interesting to see how long that continues. Edit And given that interest is taken from the advance and held by Lendy Ltd, it is almost guaranteed for the initial term anyway, sng it is cash flow terms the lenders money being returned to them. As only 40ish loans have passed that period it is hardly a record worth boasting about.
|
|
Liz
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,426
Likes: 1,297
|
Post by Liz on Aug 21, 2016 20:26:24 GMT
It would seem to me that savingstream updates are generally unreliable, there are endless promises of imminent repayment unfulfilled, absence of perinent information, naming of non-existent financial institutions and this to name but a few. And yet, in the meantime, 99 times out of 100 that lovely interest just keeps rolling in month after month followed by a late but happy repayment. My worry is 3-4 default at once and then we have problems. I just hope we get a lot of repayments, just to help with confidence and build a track record. How many loans have repaid in the last 3 months?(excluding rolled into DFL's)
|
|
|
|
Post by geraldine1210 on Aug 21, 2016 21:35:29 GMT
And yet, in the meantime, 99 times out of 100 that lovely interest just keeps rolling in month after month followed by a late but happy repayment. My worry is 3-4 default at once and then we have problems. I just hope we get a lot of repayments, just to help with confidence and build a track record. How many loans have repaid in the last 3 months?(excluding rolled into DFL's) I remember The Major York loan repaying. Other than that.....
|
|
Liz
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,426
Likes: 1,297
|
Post by Liz on Aug 21, 2016 21:49:18 GMT
My worry is 3-4 default at once and then we have problems. I just hope we get a lot of repayments, just to help with confidence and build a track record. How many loans have repaid in the last 3 months?(excluding rolled into DFL's) I remember The Major York loan repaying. Other than that..... I make it 5 loans repaid in 4 months.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Aug 21, 2016 21:49:49 GMT
And yet, in the meantime, 99 times out of 100 that lovely interest just keeps rolling in month after month followed by a late but happy repayment. My worry is 3-4 default at once and then we have problems. I just hope we get a lot of repayments, just to help with confidence and build a track record. How many loans have repaid in the last 3 months?(excluding rolled into DFL's) Five, give or take a few days PBL059, 072, 022, 053, 049 About 25-30% of PBL have repaid in total, excluding rollover, non drawdowns and non launch.
|
|
|
|
Post by geraldine1210 on Aug 21, 2016 21:54:07 GMT
I remember The Major York loan repaying. Other than that..... I make it 5 loans repaid in 4 months. A tad worrying.
|
|
merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
Posts: 902
Likes: 302
|
Post by merlin on Aug 21, 2016 22:13:50 GMT
As someone who has farming interests I have no real worries over the land loans. Always remember God stopped making new land a very long time ago.
Perhaps it is worth noting that farmable land usually takes a lot longer to sell than property. So if these loans did become repossessions expect to have to wait at least a year to get your money back.
|
|
