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Post by peterpea on Feb 17, 2018 19:31:11 GMT
I have looked on the website. It appears to be the biggest default loan that has CONCLUDED. Also , I think it has the biggest SHORTFALL after sale too. Exceptional is the word. I stand to be corrected if I am mistaken ?? Please tell me what the PF is for if it is not to at least soften the blow to lenders ? Also, I think the PF is 2.8M, so 1M is not close to half. Run the numbers for the expected losses across the rest of the portfolio that's in default, and those loans that might default, and tot it up. Then take another look at the provision fund number. Please tell me your results
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star dust
Member of DD Central
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Post by star dust on Feb 17, 2018 20:44:18 GMT
Mod Hat On/ I understand people will be upset, frustrated and emotional if they are facing losses in P2P, but the first forum rule is to be polite and constructive. Please stick to the facts and refrain from aspersions, accusations, or insults aimed at each other or platforms. I have just removed several posts, and will lock the thread, which would be a real disservice for other forum members, if this continues. In Edit: It was unfortunate that despite the above comment the thread had to be locked; but I have unlocked it now as hopefully people have calmed down and can return to less aeriated and more rational discourse. Play nicely out here  |
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Jeepers
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Post by Jeepers on Feb 17, 2018 20:49:28 GMT
Back to the original point of the PF. ultimately, DFL 1 and 2 will be paid out out first which will probably deplete the PF and that will be the end of that.
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Post by charliebrown on Feb 18, 2018 1:45:22 GMT
I have looked on the website. It appears to be the biggest default loan that has CONCLUDED. Also , I think it has the biggest SHORTFALL after sale too. Exceptional is the word. I stand to be corrected if I am mistaken ?? Please tell me what the PF is for if it is not to at least soften the blow to lenders ? Also, I think the PF is 2.8M, so 1M is not close to half. Run the numbers for the expected losses across the rest of the portfolio that's in default, and those loans that might default, and tot it up. Then take another look at the provision fund number. LY are always keen to publicise that they’ve had the largest p2p repayment ever, I wonder whether they’ll be as keen to publicise that they’ve also had the largest p2p loss ever (assuming this loan is it). The thing that annoys me most about LY is still their comms and updates, it’s pure spin and politically correct fluff.
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Feb 18, 2018 11:28:34 GMT
This loan's recovery rate is clearly a bad result and the valuation was way off the mark. SS has (yet again) done nothing to improve my already dim view of their ability in a number of key areas: valuations, monitoring, handling distressed assets etc.I disagree, however, with the idea that PBL155 delivered an exceptionally low recovery. Statistically, a recovery this low is still sits above the downside 10% tail distribution for high risk secured loans. Take a look a some of the recoveries that have occurred on platforms like TC as an example or the recovery databases that the major rating agencies maintain for secured loans. High losses at an individual loan level are to be expected on occasions.
At a portfolio level, even if 50% of SS loans default and they all recovered at 44% (as with PBL155) then the portfolio incurs only a 17% loss. Now, I would see that as a pessimistic estimate since it's unlikely the average loan will recover so low (at an average 70% recovery, the loss would be just 5%). Nonetheless, for high risk loans offering a 10-12% coupon, it would be naive to think that you couldn't lose up to 10-20% of capital in an adverse outcome. A good rule of thumb is to assume a return-to-risk ratio of 0.5 i.e. if you can make 10%, assume you can lose 20%. Such losses would also be well within the likely return distribution of less risky assets such as unsecured spec grade (junk) corporate bonds. Assuming you've diversified well across platforms (say max 5% of your net wealth in any one platform; preferably far less) then this would still only cost you 50-100bp of portfolio NAV.
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Feb 18, 2018 11:38:32 GMT
This loan's recovery rate is clearly a bad result and the valuation was way off the mark. It reminds me very much of AC's 2013 Anglesey bridge loan (12% 6-month, large property in Wales), which again had valuation that looked totally unrealistic. SS has (yet again) done nothing to improve my already dim view of their ability in a number of key areas: valuations, monitoring, handling distressed assets etc. I disagree, however, with the idea that PBL155 delivered an exceptionally low recovery. Statistically, a recovery this low is still sits above the downside 10% tail distribution for high risk secured loans. Take a look a some of the recoveries that have occurred on platforms like TC as an example or the recovery databases that the major rating agencies maintain for secured loans. High losses at an individual loan level are to be expected on occasions. At a portfolio level, even if 50% of SS loans default and they all recovered at 44% (as with PBL155) then the portfolio incurs only a 17% loss. Now, I would see that as a pessimistic estimate since it's unlikely the average loan will recover so low (at an average 70% recovery, the loss would be just 5%). Nonetheless, for high risk loans offering a 10-12% coupon, it would be naive to think that you couldn't lose up to 10-20% of capital in an adverse outcome. A good rule of thumb is to assume a return-to-risk ratio of 0.5 i.e. if you can make 10%, assume you can lose 20%. Such losses would also be well within the likely return distribution of less risky assets such as unsecured spec grade (junk) corporate bonds. Assuming you've diversified well across platforms (say max 5% of your net wealth in any one platform; preferably far less) then this would still only cost you 50-100bp of portfolio NAV. Seconded. I'm not making excuses for anyone and clearly this is a very large shortfall and possibly somebody needs hanging out to dry for this valuation, but in percentage terms this is far from the biggest loss in secured loan history.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 18, 2018 13:55:32 GMT
Given the current outlook for Isle of Wight land (the reason for which is still, afaik, unclear), it may not even be the largest loss on Ly .. we shall have to wait and see,
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webwizard
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Post by webwizard on Feb 26, 2018 17:12:41 GMT
Since this property was sold at auction, there has been fall out on Trustpilot. However, one Lendy response to a review was particularly interesting.
"The sale though is just one stage in our process for recouping maximum value for lenders, so no investors have lost capital at this stage.
As part of our efforts to bridge the gap between the value of the property realised at auction and the loan value, we are be pursing all legal and other enforcement options available to recover the outstanding balance owed (in line with the terms of the loan agreement).
[snip]
The good news is that the legal advice we have received suggests we have a good prospect of recovering the remaining capital, accrued interest and bonus accrual.
We hope that helps. If you'd like further information, please contact us direct via Support."
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mary
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Post by mary on Feb 26, 2018 17:59:52 GMT
Whilst this is a positive note, I severely doubt that any recovery will be achieved quickly and I await to be surprised if any capital other than that due from the sale is returned within a year.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Feb 26, 2018 19:28:19 GMT
IMO it's just an excuse to kick the can down the road indefinitely and maintain the fiction that no investor has lost money.
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Feb 26, 2018 20:07:47 GMT
I'm in this loan, albeit for a modest amount. A romantic error of judgement.
It'll be interesting as to where the assets or cash to repay the balance are coming from.
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stub8535
Member of DD Central
personal opinions only. Not qualified to advise on investment products.
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Post by stub8535 on Feb 26, 2018 21:19:10 GMT
I'm in this loan, albeit for a modest amount. A romantic error of judgement. It'll be interesting as to where the assets or cash to repay the balance are coming from. Krappy mess maybe?
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xpubman1
Member of DD Central
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Post by xpubman1 on Feb 26, 2018 22:54:48 GMT
Read the original IP, it was quite clear that the borrower had a strong property portfolio, this was the reason I was happy to invest a handy chunk of cash, that and the fact the borrower had invested some serious money in renovation over an extended period of time, OK so it went wrong. Let Lendy get on with their task.
Whatsmore, forget about the PF, that only creates a false sense of security, however it does give some of you guys something else to whine about. We can only sit back and wait.
As a point of interest, the P*ssy Platform just recovered about 1% of capital after the liquidators had taken a massive fee, followed by their own expenses. For the time being I for one will continue to support Lendy.
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Monetus
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Post by Monetus on Mar 9, 2018 18:27:02 GMT
We would like to announce a partial repayment of the above loan. £1,347,927 of capital (39.3%) has now been repaid to investors in this loan. Considering it sold for £1,500,000 it seems the auction house/receivers did pretty well!
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Jeepers
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Post by Jeepers on Mar 9, 2018 18:38:26 GMT
10% is ridiculous. Does LY take a fee for their troubles ? As an investor who's lost 60% of capital, is like a full breakdown of the proceeds. Lendy Support |
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