nrw
Posts: 61 
Likes: 56
|
Post by nrw on Mar 4, 2017 22:27:13 GMT
February yielded negative returns for me in Zopa Plus - the first time this has happened, across a loan portfolio of ~£75k.
Interestingly a disproportionate number of larger loans (~£300) are running bad - which quickly destroys returns. As with many other platforms, it's frustrating that you can't restrict the absolute amount you expose to any single loan as I'd much rather have a lot more £10 loan parts than £300 ones. I've pulled my cash out of Funding Circle for this reason - and deployed it via FCIF.
That said, it's interesting that many other people also appear to be afflicted by high bad debts in Feb - given the large volume of lower value loans relative to other platforms (ie. better diversification), this is a concern (ie. it's not a couple of unfortunate loans which have skewed the numbers)....
|
|
|
|
Post by blanik on Mar 6, 2017 13:19:20 GMT
One further default in February, also caused a -ve return for the month even after including my 0.5% bonus and bad debts recovered, my first as well! All loans were in £10 chunks so it is not due to bad luck with larger loans. ( 4 defaults out of about 485 Z+ loans - 95% of my loans by value are in Z+ ).
I will definitely need an improvement for the rest of the year to pull the rate up, but going into March I have 3 Z+ loans that have missed 3 payments in a row, and 1 that has missed 4 - all in collections, so it is not looking hopeful.
xirr from Jan 2016 to end Feb 2017 = 6.66%
xirr from Jan 2017 to end Feb 2017 = 2.47%
|
|
|
|
Post by ogwellian on Mar 6, 2017 13:20:20 GMT
You can guarantee £10 parts if you invest lump sums less than £2,000 and, I assume, your total to be matched remains below £2,000.
It would be useful to be able to specify loan part size, regardless of investment amount.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on Mar 6, 2017 15:27:33 GMT
Other than lending at <£2000 blocks another approach could be to put all the new investment in classic and then switch all returns to go into plus - not ideal I know but if large sums are being invested then this might work. Having said that my book is ~12000 and the return rate monthly is approx £600-£700 assuming that a similar return rate would be for a larger sum then that would start to incur £20 rates after about ~ 37000.
My book is roughly 8% plus, 2% PreSafeguard and 90% classic.
Just a different perspective and I guess i was lucky in not having any spare cash to direct straight at plus in one go.
|
|
morris
Member of DD Central
Posts: 272
Likes: 155
|
Post by morris on Mar 8, 2017 8:14:38 GMT
Since day one I have sent all my repayments to Plus and have paid in no new money. I am now about 40% Plus, and no loan over £10.
|
|
nairda
Member of DD Central
Posts: 112
Likes: 43
|
Post by nairda on Mar 8, 2017 12:49:01 GMT
In June 2016 my wife put £2.5k into each of Access and Plus. With defaults in Plus she currently has a better return from her Access account. My Plus account has also been hit by quite a few defaults but I am prepared to sit it out for now.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Mar 8, 2017 13:00:14 GMT
Assuming that was spread over 250 loans and your analysis is correct, that is an appalling result for Plus. That number of defaults in just the first few months of a loan is amazing - it must be over 60% defaults?
|
|
nairda
Member of DD Central
Posts: 112
Likes: 43
|
Post by nairda on Mar 8, 2017 13:13:01 GMT
Assuming that was spread over 250 loans and your analysis is correct, that is an appalling result for Plus. That number of defaults in just the first few months of a loan is amazing - it must be over 60% defaults? I just made a simple calculation of the value of the loans now compared to the original investment. Her defaults amount to £76.01 and interestingly most are C1 loans with a single E. As other have noticed there is also one that never made a single payment. My own losses amount to £67.27 and frustratingly we have a few common loans, something I could have avoided if I had waited for her investments to complete before starting mine - you live and learn. The only thing to be said here is that at least we can now set the losses off against tax which will reduce the hit, but I don't think we will be putting any more into Plus for the foreseeable future. I only ever intended Plus to be a toe in the water anyway.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Mar 8, 2017 13:40:24 GMT
I suppose over the next 4 years 3 months of the remaining loans you may still outperform access.
|
|
amphoria
Member of DD Central
Posts: 156
Likes: 124
|
Post by amphoria on Mar 8, 2017 15:28:21 GMT
Since day one I have sent all my repayments to Plus and have paid in no new money. I am now about 40% Plus, and no loan over £10. Like you I have sent all my repayments into Plus since the start of June. This has made it almost impossible to calculate a separate XIRR for Plus. However another post gave me the idea of calculating a monthly return from monthly interest divided by balance at the start of the month (converted to an annual rate). For the last 6 months this has looked as follows:
| Sep 16 | 15.4% | | Oct 16 | 15.1% | | Nov 16 | 17.9% | | Dec 16 | 16.8% | | Jan 17 | 10.1% | | Feb 17 | 7.4% |
I had 2 defaults per month for Jan and Feb. Despite this I am still making at least the advertised target interest rate (after defaults) for Plus.
|
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 9, 2017 8:22:55 GMT
But how does that account for the/any capital losses?
|
|
amphoria
Member of DD Central
Posts: 156
Likes: 124
|
Post by amphoria on Mar 9, 2017 10:24:52 GMT
But how does that account for the/any capital losses? I assume that this question was addressed to me. The capital losses are deducted from the interest payments, hence the lower interest in Jan and Feb. I also had a single capital loss in Oct. Fortunately all my loans are £10 ones. It looks like I could be heading for 3 defaults in March (2 so far) which would reduce the return below the target for the first time.
|
|
|
|
Post by blanik on Mar 9, 2017 13:50:59 GMT
Since day one I have sent all my repayments to Plus and have paid in no new money. I am now about 40% Plus, and no loan over £10. Like you I have sent all my repayments into Plus since the start of June. This has made it almost impossible to calculate a separate XIRR for Plus. However another post gave me the idea of calculating a monthly return from monthly interest divided by balance at the start of the month (converted to an annual rate). For the last 6 months this has looked as follows:
| Sep 16 | 15.4% | | Oct 16 | 15.1% | | Nov 16 | 17.9% | | Dec 16 | 16.8% | | Jan 17 | 10.1% | | Feb 17 | 7.4% |
I had 2 defaults per month for Jan and Feb. Despite this I am still making at least the advertised target interest rate (after defaults) for Plus.
Amphoria - Your Oct, Nov, Dec figures look exceptionally good - the pre bad-debt estimate from Zopa was just over 11% - perhaps you had an excess of the high interest loans. My coresponding figures using the monthly method on my whole loanbook ( which is 95% Z+ by value, excluding bonus and recovered bad debt, with no defaults ) are Oct 16 10.4% Nov 16 10.6% Dec 16 9.8% What figure is shown on your summary page under loan book summary near the bottom? - for mine it reports 11% for Z+.
|
|
|
|
Post by ogwellian on Mar 11, 2017 9:23:51 GMT
Looks like March is going bad too.
It was all going so well until I looked this morning. £50 interest and four defaults of nearly £40 on one account. Second account, £50 interest and one default of a few pence short of £10.
So approximately half of March's interest gone already.
|
|
amphoria
Member of DD Central
Posts: 156
Likes: 124
|
Post by amphoria on Mar 11, 2017 11:38:51 GMT
Like you I have sent all my repayments into Plus since the start of June. This has made it almost impossible to calculate a separate XIRR for Plus. However another post gave me the idea of calculating a monthly return from monthly interest divided by balance at the start of the month (converted to an annual rate). For the last 6 months this has looked as follows:
| Sep 16 | 15.4% | | Oct 16 | 15.1% | | Nov 16 | 17.9% | | Dec 16 | 16.8% | | Jan 17 | 10.1% | | Feb 17 | 7.4% |
I had 2 defaults per month for Jan and Feb. Despite this I am still making at least the advertised target interest rate (after defaults) for Plus.
Amphoria - Your Oct, Nov, Dec figures look exceptionally good - the pre bad-debt estimate from Zopa was just over 11% - perhaps you had an excess of the high interest loans. My coresponding figures using the monthly method on my whole loanbook ( which is 95% Z+ by value, excluding bonus and recovered bad debt, with no defaults ) are Oct 16 10.4% Nov 16 10.6% Dec 16 9.8% What figure is shown on your summary page under loan book summary near the bottom? - for mine it reports 11% for Z+. Mine reports 10.9% now, although it was in excess of 11% last year. I agree that the returns last year look high. This probably means that there is a flaw in the method by which I calculate the interest on Plus. Zopa do not provide a split of interest between Plus and Classic, so I estimate it from Plus closing balance - Plus opening balance - (Classic opening balance - Classic closing balance), the bit in parentheses being the capital and interest transferred from Classic to Plus during the month.
|
|
