ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 1, 2017 9:46:25 GMT
I was already concerned about the number of loans in my book going to purchase cars which is widely being touted as the next sub prime bubble. No its not. Its the finance schemes touted by dealerships that are the threat - not personal loans. I do agree though that the next slump will be painfull. But then i was in zopa in 2008, the worst recession since the twenties and lost not a penny - made money in fact. I cant figure out why your (and some others) returns are so bad. FWIW, i'm 50% classic/core and 50% plus. And i geta founder member 1% bonus.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 1, 2017 9:53:43 GMT
ZOPA should provide guidance on the size of investment and the timescale, to achieve their expected returns. I expect your investment is too small and too short to achieve those returns. ZOPA really ought to provide guidance on these issues.
At one extreme 100 loans of £10 over one year are unlikely to return the same result as 8000 loans of £10 over a five year period.
I don't believe in bad luck. Something is wrong.
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Post by portlandbill on Aug 1, 2017 10:30:05 GMT
Hmmm, my usual monthly income has dropped by over 50% for July. I have about 90% invested in classic and 10% in plus,
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Post by steamer on Aug 1, 2017 10:41:02 GMT
amphoria's chart is very close to what I have on my loans. Although my only month in 2017 without losses was April. I started my Zopa account in 2012 and built it up slowly till 2015 £9k of my £11k is in Plus and I have it set up to reinvest in Plus, so not easy to dis-aggregate them .
Of the return I should have received in 2017 to end July 46% has been defaulted. The 2017 return on Plus is still a whisker over 4%! I too am considering stopping reinvestment in Plus- however I fear it is too late as the defaulting loans were made some while back. All my defaults, bar 1, were in 2017 Cars 6 all started 2015 -2016 Consolidate existing Debt 17 all started 2016 Credit Card 2 Holiday 3 Home Improvement 10 all started 2015 -2016
The impending change to Core with an expected return of 3.9% probably only recognises the position that I am at present with Plus. It merely removes the concept of a 6.1% return that now seems hopelessly optimistic judged by the performance of my Loan Book over the last 7 months.
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Post by blanik on Aug 1, 2017 11:45:55 GMT
Zopa+ still gave a double +ve return this month.
I accept that I will receive bad debts in Z+ so that doesn't worry me - I would expect to lose roughly 40% of my gross interest.
I Started Z+ 16 moths ago - I lost 54% of my July income to defaults - so slightly worse than expected. xirr for 2017 is now 3.9% - improving slightly from the low 2 months ago.
Mrs B - Started Z+ 10 months ago, Core 1 month ago ( Split about 60/40 ) - only lost 12% of her income - so a good month - just 1 default. xirr for 2017 now 5.8%. Her Plus/Core split will confuse things in the future as she will not have much Core income in the first month, more in the 2nd as repayments come in, and no defaults for the first 4.
So I am below target - but this may be due to the 'bad' patch due to the age of my initial deposit. Mrs B is doing reasonably well.
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Post by ingenue on Aug 1, 2017 13:08:51 GMT
Very nice graph, amphoria, but to be fair it would look less alarming if the XIRR axis went to zero.
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Post by stuartassetzcapital on Aug 1, 2017 17:34:36 GMT
I have plus and classic, plus is in £10 chunks. Over the last few months returns have been around 2%, July -2%. Several borrowers have made no repayments and recoveries are minimal. A further 3.5% of loans are in arrears. I have pulled the plug this morning. davee39 do you know why this is afflicting Zopa and not the others as far as I can see at the moment (for example, AssetzCapital 30 day; Octopus Choice) Maybe because it is consumer debt as opposed to property secured business lending ? Moody's were commenting on it yesterday.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Aug 1, 2017 18:56:04 GMT
davee39 do you know why this is afflicting Zopa and not the others as far as I can see at the moment (for example, AssetzCapital 30 day; Octopus Choice) Maybe because it is consumer debt as opposed to property secured business lending ? Moody's were commenting on it yesterday. Were they at Cow's week too?
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angrysaveruk
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Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Aug 1, 2017 19:18:35 GMT
I was already concerned about the number of loans in my book going to purchase cars which is widely being touted as the next sub prime bubble. No its not. Its the finance schemes touted by dealerships that are the threat - not personal loans. I do agree though that the next slump will be painfull. If it is so easy to get a car loan from a dealership at a reasonable rate I would like you to tell me who you think these people are who are borrowing from me at 12%+ to buy a car.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Aug 1, 2017 19:32:01 GMT
Were they at Cow's week too? Contrary to your username, looks like you dropped an e there, skippy .... Whilst on board a Sunse'e'eker just to make the "trip" more interesting!!
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Aug 1, 2017 22:28:53 GMT
Very nice graph, amphoria, but to be fair it would look less alarming if the XIRR axis went to zero. It was intended to illustrate the difference between the XIRR and the Zopa calculated Expected Return and therefore I felt that it was best to zoom in. It is fair to point out that, despite the defaults, Plus is still returning more than Classic at present as the combined XIRR is greater than 4.8%.
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Post by ingenue on Aug 1, 2017 23:47:48 GMT
Very nice graph, amphoria, but to be fair it would look less alarming if the XIRR axis went to zero. It was intended to illustrate the difference between the XIRR and the Zopa calculated Expected Return and therefore I felt that it was best to zoom in. It is fair to point out that, despite the defaults, Plus is still returning more than Classic at present as the combined XIRR is greater than 4.8%. Of course the graph is fine and I didn't mean to imply you were attempting to mislead. I just thought I'd mention it for the benefit of any other slow folks like me who initially got a fright.
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johni
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Post by johni on Aug 14, 2017 10:00:46 GMT
I have been having running between 18 and 24 in people in arrears for the last 4 or 5 months in plus from a total of 743 borrowers. I have gone in today and am up to 32 today in arrears. Is this a sign of people starting to struggle with debt?
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aju
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Post by aju on Aug 14, 2017 10:52:36 GMT
Not necessarily sometimes people can be in arrears for the first 2/3 months until payments get aligned. Check the comments fields as well as the arrears amounts.
Also check the status column if its set to Collections it could be of concern. I've just checked mine and I have 3 that are new loans but they seem to be slipped or mismatched initial payments as they are still marked withdrawn, hopefully they will level out. If they are showing defaults then it's a bit more of an issue but still not damaging.
Also you should check if they are marked as SG in Classic, even in ISAcore they can be SG protected. If they are then you don't need to worry about them as they will be settled eventually by the SG fund (Well that's the theory at the moment ;-))
I'm sure you already know, but just in case, loans in arrears have to wait at least 4 payment periods (months) before the loan is marked as defaulted.
Hopefully yours are not as bad as they look. In my case I have mostly old Pre-SG defaults and most are still paying, slowly but still paying. Thats not to say that this time arround they will fair better or worse though.
edit: Oops the above is more general I've just noticed you said they were in Plus so the SG bits above don't count. The status and comments field though do count.
The one other thing to be aware of is rate of default - I have found the statements to be quite helpful in showing the default hits. Mine have been quite good to me so far as I said and my gains in any month are higher than the defaults - they have been in drips for me so far so I guess i've been quite lucky.
I've got 2 defaults in 177 loans in plus - 1 is in difficulty and the other has made one initial payment since the start in Jan and has just gone to default last month. I have 5 collections but 3 of them look like they are just misaligned after missing one or recovering completely. The other may not get better. My Plus lending started around June last year. Each persons lending experience will be different but hope this helps
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 14, 2017 13:22:41 GMT
As reported in another thread, 20% of my interest payments are from so called "defaulters".
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