|
Post by nellerdk on Aug 6, 2017 18:46:02 GMT
Anything related to the world's stock markets can be discussed here.I would like to start out by posting a few interesting graphs.
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 7, 2017 15:41:31 GMT
Very nice. I invest through funds in an ISA. With low £/$ rate and high valuations I try not to buy any funds with high weightings to the USA markets as a result. However if circumstances change I will not hesitate, as historically that's where the greatest returns are. I was investing into Europe via two good funds but with the strengthening Euro that's stopped. This month's regular investments are going mainly into UK growth, with a bit into India and Global Infrastructure. In fact high stock market valuations is a strong driver of my P2P investments! Portfolio is up 0.59% today
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 7, 2017 16:52:30 GMT
Very nice. I invest through funds in an ISA. With low £/$ rate and high valuations I try not to buy any funds with high weightings to the USA markets as a result. However if circumstances change I will not hesitate, as historically that's where the greatest returns are. I was investing into Europe via two good funds but with the strengthening Euro that's stopped. This month's regular investments are going mainly into UK growth, with a bit into India and Global Infrastructure. In fact high stock market valuations is a strong driver of my P2P investments! Portfolio is up 0.59% today beeje13 - quite a useful resource for valuations, should you not already be aware: www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 8, 2017 9:10:39 GMT
Yep, got it in the bookmarks.
Edit: I should check it more often, India is high, but high future growth is priced in there though I suppose. Also it doesn't take currency into account.
|
|
|
Post by nellerdk on Aug 8, 2017 10:16:30 GMT
A few more interesting graphs.
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 8, 2017 15:14:40 GMT
Passive vs Active is kinda like Autobid vs manual due diligence in P2P! I do compare my active funds against relevant benchmarks and indexes to make sure they're worth it. If I didn't have the time/interest to manage my investments I would just buy the cheapest global tracker and be done with it, and get a very respectable return. Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by nellerdk on Aug 8, 2017 18:07:23 GMT
Passive vs Active is kinda like Autobid vs manual due diligence in P2P! Ah, I am not sure I understand the logic behind this comparison. Can you explain a bit further what you mean? In the stock market, passive funds tend to outperform active fonds over e.g. a 10 year period, but can't you have success with a rigorous manual bid strategy in P2P?
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 8, 2017 18:28:09 GMT
Passive funds: guaranteed to underperform the index (average), they buy up everything, including the poor stocks.
Autobid (e.g. on Funding Circle): Buys up all the loan parts, including the ones that send alarm bells ringing when you do DD on them.
Yes passives outperform the majority of actively managed funds, in the USA. In the UK it's 50%, In Europe 70% of actives outperform. Source: The Telegraph and Morningstar.
I am not saying trackers are worse by any means, there's a place for both.
|
|
|
Post by nellerdk on Aug 8, 2017 18:48:16 GMT
thanks, beeje13. Here are a few more interesting charts:
|
|
|
Post by nellerdk on Aug 8, 2017 18:51:25 GMT
In fact high stock market valuations is a strong driver of my P2P investments! I agree and my strategy is similar.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 8, 2017 19:05:05 GMT
It's worth remembering that by definition active investing is a zero sum game. Passive investing will return the index minus the, on average, much lower fees than active funds. For every active pound/dollar that beats the index one must trail it by the same amount. Thus, the returns of active investing must trail those of passive investing because of their, on average, much higher fees. That's not to say there isn't a place for active investing because they set the market price and ensure it's efficient. Active investing enables you to beat the market but remember someone has to lose. When I deviate from a well diversified passive approach I always try to remember who I'm competing against and what gives me the edge? P2P is very different because the markets are highly inefficient when compared to the developed world stock markets.
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 8, 2017 19:15:13 GMT
It will be interesting to see how markets cope with the reduction of QE and interest rate rises.
Did you know that the Bank Of Japan is the biggest shareholder in dozens of Japanese companies, due to their QE programme buying ETFs!
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 8, 2017 19:36:10 GMT
Dan, the market isn't just made by Funds though: Traders, Institutions, Governments etc...
I'm not sure that active funds are the dominant factor in setting market prices?
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Aug 8, 2017 20:33:20 GMT
Dan, the market isn't just made by Funds though: Traders, Institutions, Governments etc... I'm not sure that active funds are the dominant factor in setting market prices? By active/passive I meant the strategy rather than the source of those funds (ambiguous word, I mean money!). I suspect it's very difficult to get figures for who holds what type. I've never quite understood why there is a distinction between passive funds and ETFs, putting aside the mechanics of the investment, fundamentally they are collective funds attempting to track an index. In the UK, it would be like separating active investments into direct holdings, funds and ITs (I say UK because I'm not sure whether IT structures are UK specific). I'm sceptical of active vs passive fund performance comparisons because of vested interests, there is an awful lot of money collected in fees which the industry will do all it can to keep hold of - passive investing is a threat to those fees. There are ways of spinning the numbers to suit, survivorship bias for example.
|
|
|
Post by beeje13 on Aug 9, 2017 18:20:24 GMT
Ah I get you now, makes sense.
All an active fund that charges 0.6%, compared to a passive fund that charges 0.1%, has to do is add 0.5% value in a year.
Also when active funds are compared against trackers, you usually have the best performing (usually cheapest) tracker stacked up against vs the average performance of all active funds, which includes all the 1.5% charging closet trackers, default pension/life funds, and absolute jokers like Manek Growth.
I may very well end up in 40 years time realising I have been no better off by using actives, but where's the fun in that!
|
|