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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2017 9:01:42 GMT
glad it was an excerpt  I suspect the social tensions will be similar to that seen in Tunisia in its recent revolution. One thing is clear, growth of violence in society comes explicitly from when young men cannot find work that would allow them to move onto the family model (whatever that is in their society). This lack of opportunity to invest in their own in their own society is a real trigger. In some countries those men/women may migrate (see Italians/Greeks/Portgeuse/Romanians) etc within Europe or where only a violent option exists see North Africa. Those who have had the opportunity to invest in their society need to find a way to help the young to join in before the free-cash tap closes off or reverses. Corbyn cannot be the answer but some of his client's thoughts will be part of it. The ones that stand out are 1) University tuition charges reduction in courses that benefit society, nurses being an obvious one. 2) Movement of ministries, if NIreland can move their finance ministry I see no reason to see why London continues to house most of government spending 3) Develop it or lose it for Building companies, a tough one and with too many dodges involved but worth considering 4) Non domiciled ownership of land, yep a real tough one, but London's position as "top home for criminal money" need clearing and the affect is empty property causing a price bubble in the capital making many jobs there worthless. |
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Post by beeje13 on Oct 4, 2017 9:28:30 GMT
Very very interesting post.
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Post by yorkshireman on Oct 4, 2017 11:27:14 GMT
This lack of opportunity to invest in their own in their own society is a real trigger. In some countries those men/women may migrate (see Italians/Greeks/Portgeuse/Romanians) etc within Europe Doesn’t that merely replicate and exacerbate the problem in those countries which receive the migrants? Otherwise, I entirely agree with your thoughts.
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Post by yorkshireman on Oct 4, 2017 11:28:21 GMT
> “If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g. equities).“ Sorry, how might they do that? yangmills Good question!
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Post by beeje13 on Oct 4, 2017 11:47:58 GMT
This lack of opportunity to invest in their own in their own society is a real trigger. In some countries those men/women may migrate (see Italians/Greeks/Portgeuse/Romanians) etc within Europe Doesn’t that merely replicate and exacerbate the problem in those countries which receive the migrants? Otherwise, I entirely agree with your thoughts. And brain drain from the countries that people are emigrating from...
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macq
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Post by macq on Oct 4, 2017 11:52:49 GMT
A very interesting article & thanks for posting (even if you may have caused a few sleepless nights!).Would imagine the phrase only invest for the long term & what you could afford to lose is more relevant then ever.As even JP Morgan will still say they can help people & want them to invest,but where will the problem.The late 60's & 70's may have been a bad time for markets in some ways but people who stayed the course found their shares, endowments,pension's & investment plans paying out well in the 80's whether that happens the next time & how quick is the problem.
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Post by yorkshireman on Oct 4, 2017 12:04:50 GMT
Doesn’t that merely replicate and exacerbate the problem in those countries which receive the migrants? Otherwise, I entirely agree with your thoughts. And brain drain from the countries that people are emigrating from... If that’s the case then there were plenty of highly qualified younger men riding about on trains in northern Italy heading for the Swiss border in early August.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2017 13:43:06 GMT
Doesn’t that merely replicate and exacerbate the problem in those countries which receive the migrants? Otherwise, I entirely agree with your thoughts. And brain drain from the countries that people are emigrating from... For sure, and certainly the people who tend to have the get up and go, tend to be the people other countries want. Certainly the NHS would have a tough time without this stream of people. While Bulgaria is close to terminal decline for the same reason. Either way you get different types of conflict. The jury on migration is very much out, some research shows that migrants bring demand as well as supply, after all they all need a roof over their heads hence they stimulate the housing market, the demand for food, electrical goods, cars, insurance etc. Certainly the majority of migrants I've worked with are highly educated, cheap and hard working. Britain has to find ways to improve its education and the opportunities of work, which takes me back to me original premise.
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Post by yorkshireman on Oct 4, 2017 14:49:17 GMT
And brain drain from the countries that people are emigrating from... For sure, and certainly the people who tend to have the get up and go, tend to be the people other countries want. Certainly the NHS would have a tough time without this stream of people. While Bulgaria is close to terminal decline for the same reason. Either way you get different types of conflict. The jury on migration is very much out, some research shows that migrants bring demand as well as supply, after all they all need a roof over their heads hence they stimulate the housing market, the demand for food, electrical goods, cars, insurance etc. Certainly the majority of migrants I've worked with are highly educated, cheap and hard working. Britain has to find ways to improve its education and the opportunities of work, which takes me back to me original premise. Cheap and generally hard working, can’t argue with that. However, highly educated is exactly the opposite of what I experienced at various times over three decades from the seventies, when maybe as many as 20% were illiterate in even their native language, through to the early years of this century when standards of learning had improved somewhat especially in the area of “rights” Admittedly I’m talking about low to medium skill machine operatives in a manufacturing environment where a strong back, common sense and dexterity were more important than academic qualifications, unfortunately there are considerably less opportunities for basic skills in the UK and Europe generally today. Apologies for taking the thread “off piste”
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Post by nellerdk on Oct 4, 2017 21:44:37 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 4, 2017 22:04:20 GMT
> “If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g. equities).“ Sorry, how might they do that? yangmills Good question! Print money and buy assets until they reach whatever the target price is. QE writ large. Central banks will accumulate assets on their balance sheets and transfer wads of cash to institutions / people who will need to spend it or save it (somewhere it will achieve a positive return). There might be some clever way of "neutralising" this, but if there isn't at some point it will still need to be unwound..... In respect of the "social risks" mentioned above my gut feel is that this would be more inequitable than other options mentioned in yangmills' post like "helicopter cash". Either way if right we're in for interesting times and, monetarily, uncharted waters. I'm surprised Kolanovic didn't mention gold (except obliquely by talking about inflation risk). BTW, the above is just a layman's interpretation. I'd welcome somebody more knowledgeable correcting it  .
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Oct 4, 2017 22:52:52 GMT
> “If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g. equities).“ Sorry, how might they do that? One example is the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. In September 2016 the BoJ decided to supplement its QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) and NIRP (negative interest rate policy) policies by explicitly setting a target for the 10-year JGB (government bond) at 'around' 0%. They effectively said they would intervene in the bond market to floor 10-year yields if they fell substantially below 0% and cap yields if they went above 0%. The US engaged in a similar YCC policy between 1942-51. Another example would be to extend QE programmes, which currently focus mainly on government bonds (with smaller amount of MBS), to buy a wider range of assets such as equities, corporate bonds. The BoJ has already moved toward this by buying equity ETFs and some property REITs as part of it's QQE policy. However, this could be extended further to an actual price target level for an equity index or an intervention policy to provide price support at a certain level. Some emerging market central banks have already done this on occasions where a lack of market liquidity in a crisis caused severe dislocations. There are clearly a host of potential hazards with the prolonged application of such a policy. The problem all major central banks are currently having to face is what would they be able to do if another crisis suddenly appeared. Their standard tool of cutting policy rates is of limited use with rates already close to zero (or below zero). Multiple rounds of non-conventional QE policies has left the government bond yield curve already low and flat (in nominal terms, if not in real terms). So the toolbox is pretty bare.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Oct 5, 2017 7:12:43 GMT
But if central banks start buying ETFs then they would presumably push up the value of the underlying assets, ie the stock value of the companies in that ETF. Given the comments above about stocks already being potentially overvalued, surely that would just and fuel onto the fire.
If a knowledgeable* investor thought this was going to happen, buying stocks or index funds or ETFs now would become a one way bet, as like with government bonds in the last few years the price would rise and rise.
Or do you mean buy enough to prevent the value falling so far to wipe out investors? I.e. allowing a 50% fall but preventing a 70% one?
I guess my real question is given there will be a crash** what to do about it to minimise losses?
*I am definitely not in this category
**There is always another crash, the only questions are of what type and when. 1 month or 15 years in the future, who knows?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2017 8:13:27 GMT
How would moving into negative interest rates, this would push cash out of bank accounts and into the rest of the market? Maybe focused at only large "cash" holders.
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Post by nellerdk on Oct 23, 2017 13:09:53 GMT
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