registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 17, 2018 9:59:55 GMT
The one that many will disagree with is your 55% no deal as being too high, however I think the avid remainers are vastly underestimating the desire for this to be the solution amongst the people
Au contraire. The remainers and the govt very much appreciate the popularity of 'no deal' among the anti-liberals. It is because the people might conceivably vote for 'no deal' that such a vote will never be sanctioned. Hence the chance of 'no deal' is zero. Well, just to provide a counter point, I'm a liberal remainer and I am becoming increasingly approving of a "no deal Brexit". Not because I think it will be a good thing (I think it will be dreadful), but because it will be starkly clear that it's done and we can all just shut up and get on with life.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 17, 2018 11:17:04 GMT
Au contraire. The remainers and the govt very much appreciate the popularity of 'no deal' among the anti-liberals. It is because the people might conceivably vote for 'no deal' that such a vote will never be sanctioned. Hence the chance of 'no deal' is zero. Well, just to provide a counter point, I'm a liberal remainer and I am becoming increasingly approving of a "no deal Brexit". Not because I think it will be a good thing (I think it will be dreadful), but because it will be starkly clear that it's done and we can all just shut up and get on with life. Polls are very clear that no deal is well behind if the people could vote on it
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 17, 2018 11:43:52 GMT
I don't disagree with that. What the country seemingly wants is:- No free movement of people. No oversight of the ECJ. No contributions to the EU budget. No membership of "an ever closer union". A comprehensive free trade deal with the EU, covering both goods and services. The ability to craft our own trade deals with the rest of the world on our terms. No hard border between NI and the Republic. Not to see the break up of the UK (barring some Scottish nationalists). Which is cloud cuckoo land. What is not clear to me is what proportion of people are willing to compromise on which aspects of the wish list, whether the result of that "discussion" is coherent enough to present to either parliament or the people at large, whether we could ever see a sizeable majority agree with such a proposal (rather than say close enough as dammit to 50-50) and whether the EU would agree to it. For all the damage it would cause, a clean break hard "just walk away" Brexit would at least have the advantage of producing a clear, transparent, easily understood situation for all concerned. Then further steps could be taken to improve things as and where agreement could be found. At least we could all get on with our impoverished lives . Note, I am not advocating this, just saying that I can understand the attraction......
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Nov 17, 2018 11:51:53 GMT
No one on here seems to feeling particularly bad for democracy after the referendum, the change of leader without a vote (suggesting that May was a placeperson of dark forces who believes in her abiltiies despite her one visible talent - to 'not hear') the snap election (that I'm surpirsed Labour actually voted for) and the invevitable obstructionsim and delay. All of this, I remind people was self-inlicted without any Eurocratic involement!!
And the emotionally-driven public... (when did cry-baby politicking become a thing?)
Just as we speak of Acts of God, so Brexit seems to have become an Act of Politics - sheer bloody, taxpayer funded vandalism.
WW1 (Mistake) WW2 (bigger mistake) EEC/EU (the final round?)
Final observation: Membership (or otherwise) of the European Community has been a stake in the heart of TORY politics since 1973. Since the day we joined it wasn't 'good enough' for some people. And we are still carrying these people today. And the complete domination of UK poltics by the EU goes on and on.
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 17, 2018 12:11:48 GMT
I know it's not a 'proof' by any means, but Betfair has the odds of a new referendum taking place before 2020 at 2.7 at the time of writing (or circa 37% in % terms), although this could be subject to the same remainer bias I'm afflicted by. Nonetheless, IMV, higher than 2%. Interestingly that betfair market is clear that it means an in/out referendum (i.e. a vote to simply decide the type of brexit wouldn't count). Whilst 37% chance of "a" referendum seems reasonable, I think its less than 10% chance of a referendum with remain as an option. There is in some quarters a real concern over civil unrest if the lab & con 2017 manifesto commitements to implement brexit are troden on so openly. A lib dem eu fanatatic I know said earlier this year that he believes the (private) advice from Her Majesty to the PM will be "think VERY carefully before doing so", and no-one other than a closet republican would ignore such advice.
I said yesterday I believe that a GE with a manifesto commitment for an in/out referendum would be needed. However I think if we face a GE in the next 6 months both lab & con manifestos will seek a mandate for some form of soft brexit (verging on brino), and will not offer an in/out referendum.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 17, 2018 12:18:44 GMT
I know it's not a 'proof' by any means, but Betfair has the odds of a new referendum taking place before 2020 at 2.7 at the time of writing (or circa 37% in % terms), although this could be subject to the same remainer bias I'm afflicted by. Nonetheless, IMV, higher than 2%. Interestingly that betfair market is clear that it means an in/out referendum (i.e. a vote to simply decide the type of brexit wouldn't count). Whilst 37% chance of "a" refererendum seems reasonable, I think its less than 10% chance of a referendum with remain as an option. There is in some quarters a real concern over civil unrest if the lab & con 2017 manifesto commitements to implement brexit are troden on so openly. A lib dem eu fanatatic I know said earlier this year that he believes the (private) advice from Her Majesty to the PM will be "think VERY carefully before doing so", and no-one other than a closet republican would ignore such advice.
I said yesterday I believe that a GE with a manifesto commitment for an in/out referendum would be needed. However I think if we face a GE in the next 6 months both lab & con manifestos will seek a mandate for some form of soft brexit (verging on brino), and will not offer an in/out referendum.
There's a risk of civil unrest if the full impact of a no deal Brexit is unleashed. I don't get this kowtowing to threats of violence from the extreme right, nor this reluctance to allow the electorate to decide between the actual Brexit we have negotiated and not Brexiting. That's a more reasonable question than the the previous referendum on a blind Brexit. It might take another GE to get to that, but it doesn't have to.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 17, 2018 12:21:18 GMT
I don't disagree with that. What the country seemingly wants is:- No free movement of people. No oversight of the ECJ. No contributions to the EU budget. No membership of "an ever closer union". A comprehensive free trade deal with the EU, covering both goods and services. The ability to craft our own trade deals with the rest of the world on our terms. No hard border between NI and the Republic. Not to see the break up of the UK (barring some Scottish nationalists). Which is cloud cuckoo land. What is not clear to me is what proportion of people are willing to compromise on which aspects of the wish list, whether the result of that "discussion" is coherent enough to present to either parliament or the people at large, whether we could ever see a sizeable majority agree with such a proposal (rather than say close enough as dammit to 50-50) and whether the EU would agree to it. For all the damage it would cause, a clean break hard "just walk away" Brexit would at least have the advantage of producing a clear, transparent, easily understood situation for all concerned. Then further steps could be taken to improve things as and where agreement could be found. At least we could all get on with our impoverished lives . Note, I am not advocating this, just saying that I can understand the attraction...... But much easier not to break at all, if those two are the only options left. May is right when she says if the Hard Brextemists don't compromise, they won't get any Brexit at all.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 17, 2018 12:29:16 GMT
Yeah but then up goes the hue and cry about ignoring the will of the people etc.
Forgetting of course that "changing your mind" is almost the definition of democracy.
I don't see a good route forward :-(.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 17, 2018 12:37:52 GMT
No one on here seems to feeling particularly bad for democracy after the referendum, the change of leader without a vote (suggesting that May was a placeperson of dark forces who believes in her abiltiies despite her one visible talent - to 'not hear') the snap election (that I'm surpirsed Labour actually voted for) and the invevitable obstructionsim and delay. All of this, I remind people was self-inlicted without any Eurocratic involement!!
And the emotionally-driven public... (when did cry-baby politicking become a thing?)
Just as we speak of Acts of God, so Brexit seems to have become an Act of Politics - sheer bloody, taxpayer funded vandalism.
WW1 (Mistake) WW2 (bigger mistake) EEC/EU (the final round?)
Final observation: Membership (or otherwise) of the European Community has been a stake in the heart of TORY politics since 1973. Since the day we joined it wasn't 'good enough' for some people. And we are still carrying these people today. And the complete domination of UK poltics by the EU goes on and on.
Less than 10% of the population agreed that the EU was one of the most important issues facing the country (2006-2015). Until 2016, and now it's over 50%. (Source - MORI). It only really mattered to a few in the Tory party and they've infected everyone else.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 17, 2018 12:41:29 GMT
Yeah but then up goes the hue and cry about ignoring the will of the people etc. Forgetting of course that "changing your mind" is almost the definition of democracy. I don't see a good route forward :-(. There's no good route forward. The issue it's what's the least bad. And the will of the people argument is the strongest argument for a referendum on the actual deal. If there were a genuine desire to see what the people actually wanted, on a momentous once in a generation constitutional change, that's what would happen. But instead we get the worst politics of a generation. Amazing that our so-called leaders got us here.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 17, 2018 13:53:07 GMT
Having overwhelmingly supported a referendum, the only job of the 650 MP's after the masses voted leave was to work together to obtain the best deal possible. Instead we have JC and his mob using brexit as a political football, to try and leverage an early election and the remainers in the conservative party trying to sink any proposed deal. As a consequence, I don't have a lot of time for any of them.
However, I leave the biggest dollop of contempt for the SNP, who complain that the wishes of the Scottish people to remain in the EU are being ignored, while they happily ignore the wishes of those same people to remain as part of the UK.
Everyone has polarised views, and compromise is in short supply. I voted remain, but if we are going to leave I just wish they would get on with it.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 17, 2018 14:19:20 GMT
Having overwhelmingly supported a referendum, the only job of the 650 MP's after the masses voted leave was to work together to obtain the best deal possible. Instead we have JC and his mob using brexit as a political football, to try and leverage an early election and the remainers in the conservative party trying to sink any proposed deal. As a consequence, I don't have a lot of time for any of them.
However, I leave the biggest dollop of contempt for the SNP, who complain that the wishes of the Scottish people to remain in the EU are being ignored, while they happily ignore the wishes of those same people to remain as part of the UK.
Everyone has polarised views, and compromise is in short supply. I voted remain, but if we are going to leave I just wish they would get on with it. Labour and their supporters like to believe Brexit was a Tory-only idea and votes to Leave came only from the right. Untrue, though probably true to say those on the right are more likely to be Brexiteers than those on the Left.
Heard John McDonnell on the TV this morning, saying how Labour - if there was an election now and they got into power - would manage to renegotiate with the EU within the next 3 months, even though the EU have said "that's the deal, take it or leave it" (though some papers stating EU countries want more from the deal, e.g. access to UK fishing). Can't see his version happening at all.
No deal, even if undesirable given we've made no preparations, might be what it takes to make the EU act reasonably.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Nov 17, 2018 15:45:10 GMT
Give the EU two fingers and just Leave. They're bluffing, call their bluff and watch them implode. Blighty is made of sterner stuff and will undoubtedly survive, no doubt some initial pain, but eventually thrive from Leaving. Hasn't open talk now started of a "United States of Europe"? The EU is corrupt to the core, extremely wasteful, and if you're concerned about your sprogs not being able to freely work in the EU that's fine, saddle them with the vast and unrepayable debts of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and ? . Now that's one millstone I wouldn't want to hand down to my kids, and I don't even have any! EDIT / SOME FURTHER THOUGHTS:- May is a Remainer, so having her "negotiate" Leaving was ludicrously doomed from the start. Plus, IMHO, she is a very weak negotiator anyway. We should have looked the EU straight in the eye and gone in hard from the beginning. They'd have smelt it on us and we'd have achieved much more. Anyone who's been in business knows the strongest negotiation position is when you are prepared to walk, and your opponent knows it.If being assertive didn't work, fine, walk. We could have spent a LOT of time since meticulously planning for a successful Hard Brexit. No-one knows what will happen after a Hard, Soft, or Poached Brexit but the decision has been made so just DO IT.
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Post by wiseclerk on Nov 17, 2018 16:36:39 GMT
While I don't agree with much in this article, I do agree in one point. Regardless of the final outcome: It seems that UK spent years over the Brexit debate. Time lost, that could have well been spent on better things. At least that how it seems to me looking from the outside.
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Post by charlata on Nov 17, 2018 18:09:43 GMT
Given the contempt in which most brexiteers hold the quasi-totality of out political establishment, the enthusiasm for giving them more power seems perverse.
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