r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 20, 2019 9:58:27 GMT
Interesting discussions with the 'experts' on Sky last night, regarding the recent comments made by Junker regarding a deal.
So BJ and EU tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept. The EU then say we are fed up with the delays and there can be no more extensions past 31st October. BJ puts the deal to HOC, which would leave the remainers in a difficult position.
Remain is no longer an option, you can either support the deal or risk haveing no deal.
EU could also allow a delay pending an election, in which a confirmatory referendum with remain as an option is policy of the next elected government. Remain is still in play (although unlikely). In my mind, ultimately it's either Remain or No-Deal. There is just no support for a Deal without it being narrowed to purely No-Deal/Deal - which I don't believe this Govt. will achieve (although acknowledge nothing is for sure in this crazy world).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 20, 2019 9:58:58 GMT
"tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept" - if only they had thought of that before! Alternative arrangements, that's what we need! Seriously though, the problem with this (which is basically some form of NI-backstop) is mostly not remainers but those in Parliament who won't want to vote for it. Those include: 1) Ok, yes some ardent reject-everything remainers. 2) All of the ERG, as it will not be sufficiently pure. 3) All of Labour, because this will inevitably be a 'bad Tory Brexit deal'. So it will not go through IMV. It could only conceivably go through if it was a choice between that and No-Deal, but a) as you've probably noticed, No.10 have toned down their rhetoric dramatically about No-Deal recently, basically as they've realised it would be a 'bad thing' and political suicide. b) Besides, remember that a Brexit extension is now the law in absence of a deal, so this would require some horrible further 4D chess by Cummings, which so far seems to have backfired spectacularly as either the courts and/or Parliament assert their rightful will. Asking for one is the law - we can't force the EU to agree! although they are unlikely to refuse if there is a plan (i.e. election or referendum) You beat me to me editing my own post! As per my edit, I still can't see them wanting to facilitate No-Deal. In any case, there should be an election at least by this point one would think, to enable it.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 20, 2019 10:05:26 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Sept 20, 2019 10:09:14 GMT
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Sept 20, 2019 10:15:30 GMT
Interesting discussions with the 'experts' on Sky last night, regarding the recent comments made by Junker regarding a deal.
So BJ and EU tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept. The EU then say we are fed up with the delays and there can be no more extensions past 31st October. BJ puts the deal to HOC, which would leave the remainers in a difficult position.
Remain is no longer an option, you can either support the deal or risk haveing no deal.
The argument makes some sense, I have always been of the opinion that the EU would never willingly do anything to ease exit, however, one wonders if patience is now wearing thin on all sides. Indeed, some have been saying for quite a while that Mr Johnson will eventually present a reheated May Treaty which will pass and then keep the UK in the EU orbit for the foreseeable future with clipped wings and minimal divergence. At some stage depending on developments this might then eventually morph in to looser shackles or re-entry. Everyone's a winner. However, given the power of the remain lobby, I suspect that Parliament would seek to respond to any such ultimatum by forcing revocation before the end of October.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 20, 2019 10:44:16 GMT
Interesting discussions with the 'experts' on Sky last night, regarding the recent comments made by Junker regarding a deal.
So BJ and EU tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept. The EU then say we are fed up with the delays and there can be no more extensions past 31st October. BJ puts the deal to HOC, which would leave the remainers in a difficult position.
Remain is no longer an option, you can either support the deal or risk haveing no deal.
The argument makes some sense, I have always been of the opinion that the EU would never willingly do anything to ease exit, however, one wonders if patience is now wearing thin on all sides. Indeed, some have been saying for quite a while that Mr Johnson will eventually present a reheated May Treaty which will pass and then keep the UK in the EU orbit for the foreseeable future with clipped wings and minimal divergence. At some stage depending on developments this might then eventually morph in to looser shackles or re-entry. Everyone's a winner. However, given the power of the remain lobby, I suspect that Parliament would seek to respond to any such ultimatum by forcing revocation before the end of October. Except the Tories who will see their chances of a parliamentary majority at the next GE go down the toilet. Good/bad thing depending on your POV.
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captainconfident
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 20, 2019 18:48:25 GMT
The argument makes some sense, I have always been of the opinion that the EU would never willingly do anything to ease exit, however, one wonders if patience is now wearing thin on all sides. Indeed, some have been saying for quite a while that Mr Johnson will eventually present a reheated May Treaty which will pass and then keep the UK in the EU orbit for the foreseeable future with clipped wings and minimal divergence. At some stage depending on developments this might then eventually morph in to looser shackles or re-entry. Everyone's a winner. However, given the power of the remain lobby, I suspect that Parliament would seek to respond to any such ultimatum by forcing revocation before the end of October. Except the Tories who will see their chances of a parliamentary majority at the next GE go down the toilet. Good/bad thing depending on your POV. This series of Game of Thrones is by far the best! It's improved 100% since they ditched that grey May character. So many new plot twists, can't wait for the season finale. WIll that be on 31st October?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 21, 2019 7:12:15 GMT
Except the Tories who will see their chances of a parliamentary majority at the next GE go down the toilet. Good/bad thing depending on your POV. This series of Game of Thrones is by far the best! It's improved 100% since they ditched that grey May character. So many new plot twists, can't wait for the season finale. WIll that be on 31st October? www.facebook.com/watch/?v=742203889551767
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Sept 21, 2019 7:34:07 GMT
Now the Stupid Labour party are trying to get ride of one of the only sane people on the front bench.
Tom watson although labour has always been a decent person.
This will rip the party apart and is a gift to good old Boris.
YOU COULD NOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP. Even if 1970's Corbyn was on a LSD trip.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 21, 2019 8:53:16 GMT
This said, I'm either voting for Labour or Lib Dems, and if Labour decide to self-implode (further) or come out of conference with anything less than a cast iron guarantee of a ref, then I would vote for the proverbial inanimate carbon rod with a Lib Dem badge on. Now what was I saying? F F S It's an ongoing dystopian political nightmare, with each party trying to outdo themselves in unelectability.
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captainconfident
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 21, 2019 8:58:31 GMT
This said, I'm either voting for Labour or Lib Dems, and if Labour decide to self-implode (further) or come out of conference with anything less than a cast iron guarantee of a ref, then I would vote for the proverbial inanimate carbon rod with a Lib Dem badge on. Now what was I saying? F F S It's an ongoing dystopian political nightmare, with each party trying to outdo themselves in unelectability. Can't you see that the voters are crying out for ideologically pure socialism? Only when class traitors like Watson are eliminated can The Party romp to victory.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 21, 2019 9:02:45 GMT
Now what was I saying? F F S It's an ongoing dystopian political nightmare, with each party trying to outdo themselves in unelectability. Can't you see that the voters are crying out for ideologically pure socialism? Only when class traitors like Watson are eliminated can The Party romp to victory. you omitted the word "Tory" in the middle
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 21, 2019 10:22:10 GMT
Interesting discussions with the 'experts' on Sky last night, regarding the recent comments made by Junker regarding a deal.
So BJ and EU tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept. The EU then say we are fed up with the delays and there can be no more extensions past 31st October. BJ puts the deal to HOC, which would leave the remainers in a difficult position.
Remain is no longer an option, you can either support the deal or risk haveing no deal.
"tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept" - if only they had thought of that before! I think things are slightly different now:
- The DUP are no longer king makers, so they are having to be a bit more realistic in their demands, and
- It is obvious to the EU that BJ is serious with "no deal is better than a bad deal".
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 21, 2019 10:29:05 GMT
Slightly off topic, but I saw a wonderful article on the BBC web site yesterday.
The good people of Del boy country are concerned that their MP wants to become speaker, so the elite of Camberwell and Peckham constituency party had a vote on whether Harriet Harman should apply for the job. The vote finishe 21 - 21, but after a recount it was 26 - 22 against her applying.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 21, 2019 10:29:44 GMT
"tweak the backstop slightly to get it to a position that everyone can accept" - if only they had thought of that before! I think things are slightly different now:
- The DUP are no longer king makers, so they are having to be a bit more realistic in their demands, and
- It is obvious to the EU that BJ is serious with "no deal is better than a bad deal".
Except that BJ pursuing no deal would be against the law (unless specifically approved by Parliament, which clearly it won't be)
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