number5
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Post by number5 on Sept 13, 2017 10:30:56 GMT
I am piling in...but only for property loans with a longer repayment date.
As long as I know the earliest 2 month flipping date, I will sell of all loan parts (because I don't have the option to select what to sell off).
I don't know if I have overlooked anything, but I think I have covered everything.
Please do let me know if I have missed something...so I can make neccessary adjustments to my portfolio before the 18th!
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Post by william0101 on Sept 13, 2017 10:52:36 GMT
Half the people getting out, the other half piling in. What does each half know that the other doesn't? 50% are not prepared to go down with the ship ? My suggestion is that half the people bet on one of the obvious strategies and the other half bet on the other. I'm glad I didn't choose the "I'm a Brexiteer, property is what it is about" strategy. If you want to mod *my* politics you better get rid of the  other people say too.
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c88dnf
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Post by c88dnf on Sept 13, 2017 11:44:27 GMT
Some of the A/A+ loans being snapped up this week make me ponder on the rationality of investors. For 60 month loans, the rates on loans being hoovered up today vary from 4.9% to 6.5% after FC's take. That's without any bad debt. At the same time, Ratesetter's 5 year rate hovers around 6%. Alternatively, if you believe FC's new cunning plan, 7.5% returns after fees will be available from next Monday (admittedly over an indeterminate period, allowing for bad debt recovery).
Why the heck would you invest in today's FC loans? Am I missing something?
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Post by thunderchild on Sept 13, 2017 11:49:06 GMT
Some of the A/A+ loans being snapped up this week make me ponder on the rationality of investors. For 60 month loans, the rates on loans being hoovered up today vary from 4.9% to 6.5% after FC's take. That's without any bad debt. At the same time, Ratesetter's 5 year rate hovers around 6%. Alternatively, if you believe FC's new cunning plan, 7.5% returns after fees will be available from next Monday (admittedly over an indeterminate period, allowing for bad debt recovery). Why the heck would you invest in today's FC loans? Am I missing something? The idea is that now they have shut the speculators out you will automatically be dealt a portion of the D and E loans that carry a high interest rate. I am making on one account over 7.5% although they estimate 7.5% as I'm sure i have defaults to come yet (only 4 months in). So if you are getting a full spectrum of loan parts that have interest rates from 4.9% up to 24% you should end up with 7.5% on average. At least i assume that to be the theory.
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Post by thunderchild on Sept 13, 2017 11:50:46 GMT
of course my rates only rose when i went and manually bought on the secondary market
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c88dnf
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Post by c88dnf on Sept 13, 2017 13:25:14 GMT
Some of the A/A+ loans being snapped up this week make me ponder on the rationality of investors. For 60 month loans, the rates on loans being hoovered up today vary from 4.9% to 6.5% after FC's take. That's without any bad debt. At the same time, Ratesetter's 5 year rate hovers around 6%. Alternatively, if you believe FC's new cunning plan, 7.5% returns after fees will be available from next Monday (admittedly over an indeterminate period, allowing for bad debt recovery). Why the heck would you invest in today's FC loans? Am I missing something? The idea is that now they have shut the speculators out you will automatically be dealt a portion of the D and E loans that carry a high interest rate. I am making on one account over 7.5% although they estimate 7.5% as I'm sure i have defaults to come yet (only 4 months in). So if you are getting a full spectrum of loan parts that have interest rates from 4.9% up to 24% you should end up with 7.5% on average. At least i assume that to be the theory. Yes, I could just about work that one out for myself. The actual question I posed was why invest at 4.9-6.5% today?
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 13, 2017 13:51:54 GMT
The idea is that now they have shut the speculators out you will automatically be dealt a portion of the D and E loans that carry a high interest rate. I am making on one account over 7.5% although they estimate 7.5% as I'm sure i have defaults to come yet (only 4 months in). So if you are getting a full spectrum of loan parts that have interest rates from 4.9% up to 24% you should end up with 7.5% on average. At least i assume that to be the theory. Yes, I could just about work that one out for myself. The actual question I posed was why invest at 4.9-6.5% today? Loan selection. That will be lost come Monday. A lot of people would rather invest in a 5% loan that they like the look of and think will actually repay than be given random loans by FC. People need to remeber that while E loans have a high rate the reason is because the expected default rate is around 40-50% (and worse if we have a recession) over a 5y loan.
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Post by thunderchild on Sept 13, 2017 16:35:26 GMT
The idea is that now they have shut the speculators out you will automatically be dealt a portion of the D and E loans that carry a high interest rate. I am making on one account over 7.5% although they estimate 7.5% as I'm sure i have defaults to come yet (only 4 months in). So if you are getting a full spectrum of loan parts that have interest rates from 4.9% up to 24% you should end up with 7.5% on average. At least i assume that to be the theory. Yes, I could just about work that one out for myself. The actual question I posed was why invest at 4.9-6.5% today? I am confused, they are offering 4.9 or 7.5%, what is 4.9-6.5% ? or is that before they take 1% off ?
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 13, 2017 17:56:12 GMT
No, it's 4.9% or 7.5%. Dunno where the 6.5% comes into it. Maybe his assessment over the economic cycle.
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c88dnf
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Post by c88dnf on Sept 13, 2017 18:01:04 GMT
No, it's 4.9% or 7.5%. Dunno where the 6.5% comes into it. Maybe his assessment over the economic cycle. I'll repost part of my original note, since it seems hasn't been read. Rates correct at the time that first post was made. "For 60 month loans, the rates on loans being hoovered up today vary from 4.9% to 6.5% after FC's take. That's without any bad debt."
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 13, 2017 21:12:14 GMT
If you are I sure can't see it
To me FC - have a very poor IT system with inexcusable bugs all over the place
- have shown very poor Due Diligence - if any for some loans?
- seem to have a lack of financial expertise, acumen and experience in at least the property business
- are unable to communicate in what I consider a professional level of Formal English
- treat lenders as if they are idiots and can't see beyond this PR "spin" nonsense they insist on using instead of being up-front and honest
- treat lenders with contempt when there are problems with loans e.g. London Hotel
- have no provision fund
- latest offering looks like a glorified junk bond to me with exactly zero lender input and zero security (what about PGs - what about them!)
- are in a very crowded and competitive market place which is very new and as yet unproven in the long term (I think the market will thrive but only after initial upheaval).
- have not demonstrated a strong balance sheet to me (it is just too complicated for me to analyse)
- offer projected return rates which seem a lot lower than many other P2P companies (although higher than some others)
- do not offer a cast-iron guarantee that loan parts will be bought on the SM
But on the plus side
- they have a large purple puppet
- have free booze and Salsa
What could possibly go wrong with the new system?
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rogerthat
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Post by rogerthat on Sept 13, 2017 21:17:04 GMT
Is there an interpreter in the house ?
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Post by thunderchild on Sept 14, 2017 6:58:37 GMT
No, it's 4.9% or 7.5%. Dunno where the 6.5% comes into it. Maybe his assessment over the economic cycle. I'll repost part of my original note, since it seems hasn't been read. Rates correct at the time that first post was made. "For 60 month loans, the rates on loans being hoovered up today vary from 4.9% to 6.5% after FC's take. That's without any bad debt." Are you talking about only A and A+ loans ? that is the point of the new system, you get a spread of loans that go right up to 20%
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Post by kerimar on Sept 14, 2017 7:35:09 GMT
I have bought a great amount in the last 2 weeks. Probably buy a load more this weekend as well. Sold shedloads as well. Before the change, I was buying large amounts of all the C D and E that I could get. Keeping them for a few months, then sell most on at a modest premium. I have now sold all my larger amounts and kept a small chunk in each. Now buying equal chunks of any newish C D and E loan I can find on the secondary market at 0%. Diversified to over 1000 companies now so just going to leave it sitting there. Withdrawing any surplus straight away, then withdraw every month. Sod the Autobid. I don't want a portfolio full of A+, A and B loans and that's what it will be 'cos there won't be enough High Interest parts to go around.. There are other P2P sites where I can still have control.
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c88dnf
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Post by c88dnf on Sept 14, 2017 10:40:10 GMT
Sod the Autobid. I don't want a portfolio full of A+, A and B loans and that's what it will be 'cos there won't be enough High Interest parts to go around. FC's new business model assumes that a majority of investors will go for the "safe" portfolio yielding 4.8% after fees if on target. If their model is wrong and too many investors go for the full range of A+ to E, things will pan out exactly as you suggest. FC's have stated in writing to me that their target for the complete portfolio going forward from Sep 18th is 6.7% after fees. So 7.5% is only achievable if their guess on investor behaviour is correct. Judging by the loopy way A+ 5-year loans yielding under 5% after fees have been getting snapped up this week, FC may well be right about investors' logic (though stupidity might be a better word) in piling into long-date, low yield loans. If anyone is thinking of investing in the new FC, the only sensible way to do it is with a minimum of £4,000 which gives you maximum diversification. That equates to 0.5% maximum in any single loan, subject to the minimum investment per loan of £20. Then hope that a majority of investors don't understand how FC's new options and diversification mechanism works and you can get out before a great PPI style hue & cry erupts in 3/4 years' time when those same investors find they aren't getting the headline returns. I shall be lurking on the sidelines for 3-6 months, but may then chuck in £4k as an experiment. Perhaps someone more daring than me will do a blog of their "new FC" experience?
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other people say too.