dorset
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Post by dorset on Sept 14, 2017 10:43:04 GMT
I have bought a great amount in the last 2 weeks. Probably buy a load more this weekend as well. Sold shedloads as well. Before the change, I was buying large amounts of all the C D and E that I could get. Keeping them for a few months, then sell most on at a modest premium. I have now sold all my larger amounts and kept a small chunk in each. Now buying equal chunks of any newish C D and E loan I can find on the secondary market at 0%. Diversified to over 1000 companies now so just going to leave it sitting there. Withdrawing any surplus straight away, then withdraw every month. Sod the Autobid. I don't want a portfolio full of A+, A and B loans and that's what it will be 'cos there won't be enough High Interest parts to go around.. There are other P2P sites where I can still have control. Agree. I've got wrist strain from buying up B/C/Ds at no more than 0.3% premium over the last week or so. What has struck me buying manually is that about half of the loans are not worth touching - business with £80k turnover borrowing £100k to expand in the US and so on. After the 18th lenders are going to be into these loans with no control. My plan is to load up until the 18th and then simply run down my FC account over the following 60 months by withdrawing all loan repayments. I may go back into FC in a year or so - see how the "no lender control" model works out.
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kt
Posts: 105 
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Post by kt on Sept 14, 2017 12:44:00 GMT
One thing is for sure, you will never see a loan fail to fill again. Is that a good thing? I don't think so.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 14, 2017 16:39:25 GMT
To be fair one of my complaints with FC was that we saw rather too few loans fail to fill IN THE PAST .. certainly since autobodge was allowed to take 100% of anything. The 'won't touch it with a bargepole' manual bidders USED to be able to stop the really really bad loans (if they were large enough .. there were always £20k-worth of manual bidders who'd buy diversity without looking at the details). The only fill-failures I recall of late were tranches N+1 of large property loans, and those are being phased out anyway.
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 14, 2017 19:34:27 GMT
I'm just a p2p noob. Dipped a toe in on Monday. All I was really looking for was a better rate for money that's been languishing in a half-forgotten 0.65% cash ISA for the last umpteen years. So, 3-5% will do me, though I wouldn't turn down more. I was therefore unperturbed on learning that I'd pretty much missed the boat on the 'active' side of FC.
So I stuck my money in, turned on Autobid and waited ... and waited ... [tap-tap-tap] ... is this thing on? New loans came and went without it touching them. It eventually dribbled a small gob of money out, but I grew impatient and thought I'd have a play manually. It's Monopoly money; it wouldn't kill me to take a hit through cluelessness.
It was actually fun, so now I'm quite sad to see this facility go. I rather liked sticking 20 quid into a hairdresser's in Sale, another into a diving operation on Mull, a third into a trout farm ... but it's probably good I can't spend all day battling the bots and Autobid, as I've found myself doing. I've certainly noticed zero-premium parts being snaffled up in seconds; you have to be quick. Stick tuppence on and no-one will touch them. I'm guessing that's Autobid at work.
I'll stick around for that over-ISA return, even though I see significant risks. But, it was fun.
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 14, 2017 20:14:45 GMT
I'm just a p2p noob. Dipped a toe in on Monday. All I was really looking for was a better rate for money that's been languishing in a half-forgotten 0.65% cash ISA for the last umpteen years. So, 3-5% will do me, though I wouldn't turn down more. I was therefore unperturbed on learning that I'd pretty much missed the boat on the 'active' side of FC. So I stuck my money in, turned on Autobid and waited ... and waited ... [tap-tap-tap] ... is this thing on? New loans came and went without it touching them. It eventually dribbled a small gob of money out, but I grew impatient and thought I'd have a play manually. It's Monopoly money; it wouldn't kill me to take a hit through cluelessness. It was actually fun, so now I'm quite sad to see this facility go. I rather liked sticking 20 quid into a hairdresser's in Sale, another into a diving operation on Mull, a third into a trout farm ... but it's probably good I can't spend all day battling the bots and Autobid, as I've found myself doing. I've certainly noticed zero-premium parts being snaffled up in seconds; you have to be quick. Stick tuppence on and no-one will touch them. I'm guessing that's Autobid at work. I'll stick around for that over-ISA return, even though I see significant risks. But, it was fun. I'm also an Al really. And I'm an FC-aholic. Like you, I started small. Twenty minutes here, a stolen lunchbreak there. A laundromat in Grantham with a tax bill to pay, a highly suspect flower shop in Bournemouth needing £500k for stock. It all seemed so innocent. But then, it changed. There were property loans appearing, listed with this thing called cashback. The marijuana £20 to a struggling Bolton pet wash specialist turned into the cocaine of £500 a pop property loans to support a Luton slumlord's dream,with 2% cashback just for me. Everyone was doing it, we thought we were so cool. Then I realised, I didn't need to just buy loans, I could sell too. I bought low and sold high. 3% premiums - 60p per £20 loan part - we weren't millionaires, but we could dream. I knew the risks, but I just didn't care. Best of all, the Feds just let it happen, as long as they got their 0.25 points. By the time I was FC-viz selling 500 parts of Hitchin 1 with 7 months remaining at 0.5% premium, I knew I had hit rock bottom. At least I thought I had until they removed the selling fees. Now I can get the same high with just 0.3% premiums, but the low is going to be so much harder going cold turkey on Sunday. Excuse me, I smell some Bicester 1 droppings that I need to scrape off the SM floor.
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Post by TomBola on Sept 14, 2017 20:44:31 GMT
Like some others on here, I plan to just let my account drift Mary Celeste style after the 18th. Not buying not selling, just collecting payments and recoveries as I go. I'm more or less done now tidying up, just need to swab the poop deck, lower one of the lifeboats and I'll row off into the distance.
I'll log in occasionally to transfer money back to my bank, but there will be no decisions to make, nothing to learn, where's the fun in that?
BTW will meaningful discussion on here cease on the 18th? What would be the point in discussing any particular loan if it's loan parts could only be won by chance at the FC roulette table?
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 14, 2017 21:13:13 GMT
I just hope they've thoroughly tested the new software ...
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 15, 2017 7:53:11 GMT
My strategy, if I may humbly call it that, has been mostly to bag D and E zero-premium loan parts when they come up. I set a £20 limit. My thinking is that I am more likely to hit the average bad debt for the class the more of it I've got (Law of Large Numbers and all that). Because of the £20 limit, I tend to get stuff that's somewhat into the repayment period, increasing exposure to bad debt, but that's offset by the fact that more of each repayment that does get made is interest. I don't have any thinking time, because Autobid (or some other automated process, or a load of people pressing F5 like me!) is grabbing these too, but the resell market is fluid enough for me to have second thoughts. Grab it, have a look, offer it up to Autobid if I don't fancy it. Of course, I could just take the hit of a tuppence premium for a more leisurely look; it'll hardly break the bank.
Come Monday, a purely Autobid portfolio will have a much smaller proportion of E's, exposing people to the vagaries of small samples. The low-interest, more secure part of the portfolio will have to work harder to compensate. I think.
Feel free to snigger!
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 15, 2017 8:24:53 GMT
My strategy, if I may humbly call it that, has been mostly to bag D and E zero-premium loan parts when they come up. I set a £20 limit. My thinking is that I am more likely to hit the average bad debt for the class the more of it I've got (Law of Large Numbers and all that). Because of the £20 limit, I tend to get stuff that's somewhat into the repayment period, increasing exposure to bad debt, but that's offset by the fact that more of each repayment that does get made is interest. I don't have any thinking time, because Autobid (or some other automated process, or a load of people pressing F5 like me!) is grabbing these too, but the resell market is fluid enough for me to have second thoughts. Grab it, have a look, offer it up to Autobid if I don't fancy it. Of course, I could just take the hit of a tuppence premium for a more leisurely look; it'll hardly break the bank. Come Monday, a purely Autobid portfolio will have a much smaller proportion of E's, exposing people to the vagaries of small samples. The low-interest, more secure part of the portfolio will have to work harder to compensate. I think. Feel free to snigger! No sniggering, that strategy might just do very well. The danger is that by taking solely D/E's you're exposing yourself of course to only the very worst borrowers. If there's an economic downturn, then they're likely to be the first against the wall. Zopa has had a bit of a problem with sub-prime D/E loans of late, as many Zopa+ lenders will attest, and individual issues could reflect on SME loans too. On the positive side, if you monitor it and start to see the RBR/default rate increase then you can always about face and fling everything off into auto-bid fee-free (unlike Zopa). The only thing with that is that there's likely to be a spike of RBR/defaults in your portfolio as the rotten apples are discovered, which may then leave you with the good loans you don't want to get rid of(there were some stats/graphs somewhere about the default rate lifecycle, but god knows where). Anyway, the very best of luck, I hope it goes well. I'm sticking with property - safe as houses <ahem>.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 15, 2017 8:35:33 GMT
The one consistent theme I see is the assumption that people will always be able to liquidate their holdings quickly at any given time.
That is not a given. Any shift in the liquidity dynamics then FC for sure will prioritise the funding of new loans over cash withdrawal requests. I would caution treating FC as a high interest savings account, market dynamics can change very quickly.
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 15, 2017 9:02:39 GMT
My strategy, if I may humbly call it that, has been mostly to bag D and E zero-premium loan parts when they come up [...] No sniggering, that strategy might just do very well. The danger is that by taking solely D/E's you're exposing yourself of course to only the very worst borrowers. If there's an economic downturn, then they're likely to be the first against the wall. Zopa has had a bit of a problem with sub-prime D/E loans of late, as many Zopa+ lenders will attest, and individual issues could reflect on SME loans too. Thanks, point taken. It's more 'D/E heavy' than solely D/E, but yes, I'm undoubtedly increasing the risk on that score, vs higher returns. I guess my bet is that the downturn, if it happens, will be a year or two away, by which time enforced Autobid in conjunction with loan maturity will have rebalanced me somewhat. 29th March 2019 is a date that sticks in my mind, for some reason ... 
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 15, 2017 9:07:05 GMT
The one consistent theme I see is the assumption that people will always be able to liquidate their holdings quickly at any given time. That is not a given. Any shift in the liquidity dynamics then FC for sure will prioritise the funding of new loans over cash withdrawal requests. I would caution treating FC as a high interest savings account, market dynamics can change very quickly. I'd agree - for my part, I had the slightly contradictory ideas of not wanting to stick with 0.65% for years, and then thinking 'what the hell?' on the capital as well! There are certainly safer vehicles, but it's a tiny fraction of my liquidish (up-to-a-week's notice) cash.
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bg
Member of DD Central
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Post by bg on Sept 15, 2017 9:11:48 GMT
The one consistent theme I see is the assumption that people will always be able to liquidate their holdings quickly at any given time. That is not a given. Any shift in the liquidity dynamics then FC for sure will prioritise the funding of new loans over cash withdrawal requests. I would caution treating FC as a high interest savings account, market dynamics can change very quickly. I'd agree - for my part, I had the slightly contradictory ideas of not wanting to stick with 0.65% for years, and then thinking 'what the hell?' on the capital as well! There are certainly safer vehicles, but it's a tiny fraction of my liquidish (up-to-a-week's notice) cash. Yeah I would be fairly confident you can get it out. Demand is far outstripping supply it seems and they will be looking to ramp up the advertising off the back of the new style account. They also have the additional lever of diverting more loans to institutional if they require it. The main risk is a big shock to the economy....a big Brexit issue, war in Korea, Trump does something daft etc. If that happens it could all dry up.
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Post by yorkshireman on Sept 15, 2017 10:14:43 GMT
29th March 2019 is a date that sticks in my mind, for some reason ... Freedom from an undemocratic dictatorship! 
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al
Posts: 49
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Post by al on Sept 15, 2017 10:35:05 GMT
29th March 2019 is a date that sticks in my mind, for some reason ... Freedom from an undemocratic dictatorship! If you say so.
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