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Post by davee39 on Sept 10, 2014 19:17:53 GMT
Not sure a small No win would be the worst outcome. The momentum would be for a further referendum in a few years. This would allow time for 'possibly' a serious discussion about currency union and asset shares etc so the vote would be based on fact and not fear.
I am split on this. I am envious of the Scots chance to rid themselves of the Westminster Tories (& I include the Labour Party), but I fear the RUK being much worse off, and the North being squeezed between the 'don't care' South and the free Scots.
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Post by batchoy on Sept 10, 2014 19:40:57 GMT
Not sure a small No win would be the worst outcome. The momentum would be for a further referendum in a few years. This would allow time for 'possibly' a serious discussion about currency union and asset shares etc so the vote would be based on fact and not fear. The thing is whilst I agree with the further referendum in a few years, I don't see that this would lead to serious discussion on important and currently unresolved issues but rather that there would be greater polarization between the two camps leading to greater uncertainty and major confidence issues with Scottish economy and thus to investment and business moving out of Scotland but not necessarily into rUK.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Sept 10, 2014 19:40:58 GMT
I could not agree more, a No vote with a small margin will be a complete disaster. Such a situation would ensure that sooner or later there will be a re-run of this whole nonsense all over again only with a lot more anger and angst.
On the other hand if there was a Yes vote with a small margin there would be no going back. However it would be more of a disaster for England as it would ensure that a Tory government would be in place in Westminster and probably unassailable for a long time into the future and that just isn't healthy. This is not that I an anti Tory just that any party in power for more than two sessions ends up in a mess.
The one thing that has struck me in this campaign is just how badly organised the No brigade have been organised. It seems to lack depth and conviction and just seems to come out with platitudes. This I find amazing as if the vote goes the other way it will almost certainly screw up the economy and cause chaos in Westminster for at least two years. Perhaps at last this has eventually dawned on the various party leaders and thus the panic up to Scotland today.
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Post by yorkshireman on Sept 10, 2014 19:52:27 GMT
The one thing that has struck me in this campaign is just how badly organised the No brigade have been organised. It seems to lack depth and conviction and just seems to come out with platitudes. This I find amazing as if the vote goes the other way it will almost certainly screw up the economy and cause chaos in Westminster for at least two years. Perhaps at last this has eventually dawned on the various party leaders and thus the panic up to Scotland today. That speaks volumes for the competence and integrity of the political elites and indeed all politicians in the UK, regardless of whether they are of the left, right or centre.
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Post by batchoy on Sept 10, 2014 20:04:22 GMT
The one thing that has struck me in this campaign is just how badly organised the No brigade have been organised. It seems to lack depth and conviction and just seems to come out with platitudes. This I find amazing as if the vote goes the other way it will almost certainly screw up the economy and cause chaos in Westminster for at least two years. Perhaps at last this has eventually dawned on the various party leaders and thus the panic up to Scotland today. That speaks volumes for the competence and integrity of the political elites and indeed all politicians in the UK, regardless of whether they are of the left, right or centre. The thing that struck me with today's panic by the Westminster elite and their outpouring of bribes in order to obtain a No vote, was are they actually angling to have the vote declared void if the outcome is a marginal Yes on the grounds that many people have already cast their postal votes and thus may have voted Yes with out all the relevant information as to what was on the table for voting No and thus may wish to change their minds. I have some sympathy with the No campaign as up until today they were basically in the position of having to promote the status quo which is always a difficult thing to do since everybody knows what the status quo is. They have also had the difficult situation that they have needed to disassociate themselves from the Westminster elite is a large part of the Yes campaign is about being anti-Westminster.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Sept 10, 2014 21:22:10 GMT
Other problem the NO campaign has is it includes a party that has little support in Scotland. Salmond can spout whatever rubbish he likes and when challenged just trots out something about a Tory policy and challenges the non-Tory to defend it. The whole YES campaign is based on complete intangibles, none of which can be resolved until after the vote occurs. Currency, maritime borders (therefore oil/fish etc), debt/reserves/assets, EU, Schengen/borders, trade agreements, export tariffs, passports/embassies. Salmond justs paints a picture of a Scottish utopia where everything is as he wants it. Feel very sorry for most Scots as they are making potentially the biggest decision of their lives based on smoke. From a P2P point of view, hope the PG for FF doesnt have too many Scottish shares behind it  |
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Sept 11, 2014 3:03:54 GMT
While I still think we get a NO vote when push comes to shove, I'm not totally clear why the betting market is still so convinced we get a NO vote. I find it interesting that IG index still has the vote as Yes 30%: No 70% despite the recent polls. Today there was a rumour of a new poll that would show Yes @ 54%. I think the reason is that while the 'polls' claim 50/50 (or there-abouts), the questionnaire that people are given has three options, the third being 'undecided'. The assumption is that the not-insignificant number of people who claim to be undecided will go with the usual 'devil you know' philosophy. Not only that, but I think all those 'undecided' people are probably 'no' voters who don't want to admit it (or don't feel that strongly), and probably wouldn't bother to vote if the polls predicted a landslide either way. Personally, I think that the closeness of the polls will bring out a lot of these guys, who will generally vote 'no', and my prediction is 65-75% voting no (hopefully nearer 75%, as a Scot living outside Scotland).
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 11, 2014 16:43:47 GMT
<snip> In terms of outcome for Scotland the worst possible scenario will be an 'No' vote by a very small margin. Alex Salmond is banking on a small 'No' vote. That way he wins (and Scotland too) as they keep the GBP and all the other benefits PLUS he can 'demand' even more devo-max changes too. But that makes a future indie vote almost impossible or very hard indeed. The Scottish are very canny and Alex more than average. Alex can't lose which ever why the vote goes. He blame others if he loses etc. etc.
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Sept 11, 2014 23:36:43 GMT
Where does Salmond get off on not offering a vote to Scots living outside Scotland on such an important issue? It doesn't take a genius to figure it out. The guy has some gall...
I am personally hoping for a "Yes" vote in this referendum and to let those who vote for it reap what they sow. It will hurt the UK, but in the long run it will hurt Scotland far more. The best/easiest oil fields to produce from have seen their day. Scotland will not become an energy superpower. Instead it will become the Greece of the North. I'm sorry for the Scots who realise this and will vote "No" but the Nationalistic line pushed by Salmond makes the bile rise in my throat. This and numerous visits to Scotland and one "English" comment too many North of the Border.
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Post by rudry2677 on Sept 12, 2014 7:42:24 GMT
Where does Salmond get off on not offering a vote to Scots living outside Scotland on such an important issue? It doesn't take a genius to figure it out. The guy has some gall... I am personally hoping for a "Yes" vote in this referendum and to let those who vote for it reap what they sow. It will hurt the UK, but in the long run it will hurt Scotland far more. The best/easiest oil fields to produce from have seen their day. Scotland will not become an energy superpower. Instead it will become the Greece of the North. I'm sorry for the Scots who realise this and will vote "No" but the Nationalistic line pushed by Salmond makes the bile rise in my throat. This and numerous visits to Scotland and one "English" comment too many North of the Border. I certainly hope that the 'Yes' campaign fails as I believe the current Scottish leadership is hell bent on destruction. Imagine the scenario, far fetched but possible, should Scotland become independent, of the new government deciding to leave the EU and NATO, then leasing Faslane or RAF Leuchars to the Russians or Chinese. There is also the possibility of them remaining in the EU, slashing social security payments in order to encourage the needy to 'head south'. 'Pipe dreams/nightmares'? I hope so for all our sakes.
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Post by phoenix on Sept 12, 2014 8:07:51 GMT
Scotland will not become an energy superpower. Instead it will become the Greece of the North. I'm sorry for the Scots who realise this and will vote "No" but the Nationalistic line pushed by Salmond makes the bile rise in my throat. This and numerous visits to Scotland and one "English" comment too many North of the Border. I certainly hope that the 'Yes' campaign fails as I believe the current Scottish leadership is hell bent on destruction. Imagine the scenario, far fetched but possible, should Scotland become independent, of the new government deciding to leave the EU and NATO, then leasing Faslane or RAF Leuchars to the Russians or Chinese. There is also the possibility of them remaining in the EU, slashing social security payments in order to encourage the needy to 'head south'. These suggestions would be offensive if they weren't so ludicrous.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 12, 2014 9:13:20 GMT
<snip> This and numerous visits to Scotland and one "English" comment too many North of the Border. I must say the 'comments' when you're are North of the Border are annoying but; taking this off topic now - I wonder how the Germans take our war comments and the constant flow of WWII films on tv for those that live here?
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Vero
Member of DD Central
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Post by Vero on Sept 12, 2014 9:46:14 GMT
Does it not feel like begging/bribing an unhappy, unfaithful husband not to leave, when he despises his wife/family and desperately wants out of his miserable marriage?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 12, 2014 9:54:02 GMT
Yep, if the wanna go, let them. Ditto the Crimea, East Ukraine, the Basque region, and (the Russians will love this) Chechnya. The problems start when 50% wanna go and 50% wanna stay (see N Ireland for instance), or when the governing power doesn't want to allow a democratic free vote anyway, or when some outside power applies pressure.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 12, 2014 10:21:37 GMT
Does it not feel like begging/bribing an unhappy, unfaithful husband not to leave, when he despises his wife/family and desperately wants out of his miserable marriage? But the situation is that the unhappy partner is playing up so they can get more out of the marriage. Alex doesn't believe the marriage is over he just want more power in it.
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