cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Dec 11, 2018 10:07:03 GMT
Doubt that'll happen.
Best May/EU can hope is to say "trust us, the deal doesn't really mean what is says in black and white, please sign". Not going to happen. Even if there were a second referendum (which would cause a huge distrust in the political system and destruction of the Tories), wouldn't happen by next March.
Or how about Donald Tusk's "but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification" - it is all about wording and egos at the end of the day. Luckily we are using "English" - we have a lot of descriptive yet flakey words that can be used As for a second referendum, there is slim chance of that imo - no one is even going to agree on the question, let alone the answer!! EU should be more worried the effect on Ireland if the UK leaves with no deal:
|
|
Steerpike
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,974
Likes: 1,687
|
Post by Steerpike on Dec 11, 2018 10:13:44 GMT
The People's Vote in 2016 was to leave the EU but MPs don't want to do so.
The outcome will be leaving but not leaving, probably EFTA, thus allowing for the weasel words that "we have left the EU as the British people voted" whilst continuing to allow freedom of movement, membership of the single market, and pretty much the same level of contribution to the EU budget but with no real influence.
This will also achieve the EU objective of demonstrating that leaving the EU is worse than staying.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:21:33 GMT
I think they will find some new wording over the backstop and the deal will get voted through eventually ... Doubt that'll happen.
Best May/EU can hope is to say "trust us, the deal doesn't really mean what is says in black and white, please sign". Not going to happen. Even if there were a second referendum (which would cause a huge distrust in the political system and destruction of the Tories), wouldn't happen by next March.
Amazing that the dialogue has shifted so that a referendum on an aspiration is the irreversible will of the people and the ultimate in democracy but a referendum on an actual negotiated deal is seen as anti-democratic and a betrayal. I smell a rat.
|
|
|
Post by captainconfident on Dec 11, 2018 10:24:21 GMT
This will also achieve the EU objective of demonstrating that leaving the EU is worse than staying.I'm sorry but it is Britain who has demonstrated that leaving the EU is worse than staying. What room did Theresa May leave the EU to negotiate anything other than the deal we got? She festooned herself with "Red Lines" at the outset, because she was obsessed with immigration. Neither her hapless Brexit ministers nor the EU could do anything much with so little room to manoeuvre.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:24:26 GMT
The People's Vote in 2016 was to leave the EU but MPs don't want to do so. The outcome will be leaving but not leaving, probably EFTA, thus allowing for the weasel words that "we have left the EU as the British people voted" whilst continuing to allow freedom of movement, membership of the single market, and pretty much the same level of contribution to the EU budget but with no real influence. This will also achieve the EU objective of demonstrating that leaving the EU is worse than staying. Agreed. And now that people have seen the actual options and have to make the hard choice between eating cake and having it: UK, YouGov poll: Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal vs No Deal Remain: 54% (+8) Leave without deal: 28% (+1) Leave with May deal: 18% (-9) Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:32:42 GMT
Doubt that'll happen.
Best May/EU can hope is to say "trust us, the deal doesn't really mean what is says in black and white, please sign". Not going to happen. Even if there were a second referendum (which would cause a huge distrust in the political system and destruction of the Tories), wouldn't happen by next March.
Or how about Donald Tusk's "but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification" - it is all about wording and egos at the end of the day. Luckily we are using "English" - we have a lot of descriptive yet flakey words that can be used As for a second referendum, there is slim chance of that imo - no one is even going to agree on the question, let alone the answer!! Parliament will. If there were to be a referendum (and I think more than a slim chance) there's only two options: whatever May's final deal is or remain - unless Tories change PM and change red lines (which will need article 50 cancellation and renegotiation).
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Dec 11, 2018 10:33:46 GMT
The People's Vote in 2016 was to leave the EU but MPs don't want to do so. The outcome will be leaving but not leaving, probably EFTA, thus allowing for the weasel words that "we have left the EU as the British people voted" whilst continuing to allow freedom of movement, membership of the single market, and pretty much the same level of contribution to the EU budget but with no real influence. This will also achieve the EU objective of demonstrating that leaving the EU is worse than staying. Agreed. And now that people have seen the actual options and have to make the hard choice between eating cake and having it: UK, YouGov poll: Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal vs No Deal Remain: 54% (+8) Leave without deal: 28% (+1) Leave with May deal: 18% (-9) Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018 Poll results don't surprise me. We had a Remainer PM, who lacked the integrity to say "sorry, I don't believe in leaving the EU", who came up with a "let's stay as close to the EU as I can get away with" deal. No surprise a number of people think "if that's the only deal, we'll be better off staying in the EU". However, that's based on a false premise, it's not the only deal, it's just the one that May came up with. Short/medium term effect will be May out of a job and Tories out of power.
If we end up staying in the EU, there'll be millions of people who feel rightly betrayed by the democratic process. Going to shake up politics in this country massively. (But at least I'll still be able to get my car washed cheaply by eastern europeans).
Oddly enough, even pro-EU voters in this country never seem to be in favour of full EU membership: Euro, Schengen, EU army etc., which is the obvious requirements for an ever-closer-union EU superstate.
|
|
dandy
Posts: 427
Likes: 341
|
Post by dandy on Dec 11, 2018 10:40:15 GMT
Amazing that the dialogue has shifted so that a referendum on an aspiration is the irreversible will of the people and the ultimate in democracy but a referendum on an actual negotiated deal is seen as anti-democratic and a betrayal. I smell a rat. The democratic issue with a second referendum is only if Remain is still an option - when it lost already. A referendum on type of brexit would be ok - even though it would be silly and now it is Parliament that should decide - deal or no deal!
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:41:04 GMT
Agreed. And now that people have seen the actual options and have to make the hard choice between eating cake and having it: UK, YouGov poll: Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal vs No Deal Remain: 54% (+8) Leave without deal: 28% (+1) Leave with May deal: 18% (-9) Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018 Poll results don't surprise me. We had a Remainer PM, who lacked the integrity to say "sorry, I don't believe in leaving the EU", who came up with a "let's stay as close to the EU as I can get away with" deal. No surprise a number of people think "if that's the only deal, we'll be better off staying in the EU". However, that's based on a false premise, it's not the only deal, it's just the one that May came up with. Short/medium term effect will be May out of a job and Tories out of power.
If we end up staying in the EU, there'll be millions of people who feel rightly betrayed by the democratic process. Going to shake up politics in this country massively. (But at least I'll still be able to get my car washed cheaply by eastern europeans).
Oddly enough, even pro-EU voters in this country never seem to be in favour of full EU membership: Euro, Schengen, EU army etc., which is the obvious requirements for an ever-closer-union EU superstate.
I hope it does shake things up, starting with a proper electoral system so that one's views can get properly represented. Huge numbers are disenfranchised and not represented by the FPTP and two party system we have. Most pro-EU voters recognised that we had a good deal with those opt-outs, including from any further political integration/superstate. No one was suggesting we remove those for full integration - straw man argument.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:43:36 GMT
Amazing that the dialogue has shifted so that a referendum on an aspiration is the irreversible will of the people and the ultimate in democracy but a referendum on an actual negotiated deal is seen as anti-democratic and a betrayal. I smell a rat. The democratic issue with a second referendum is only if Remain is still an option - when it lost already. A referendum on type of brexit would be ok - even though it would be silly and now it is Parliament that should decide - deal or no deal! It lost against a concept not a reality. Furthermore, I am afraid that the idea that the electorate could never ever change its mind is profoundly antidemocratic. See also: all totalitarian regimes ever.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Dec 11, 2018 10:45:37 GMT
I hope it does shake things up, starting with a proper electoral system so that one's views can get properly represented. Huge numbers are disenfranchised and not represented by the FPTP and two party system we have. I agree with that. As long as it's a simple system, e.g. if party X gets 5% of the votes (no transfers involved), they get 5% of the seats. Downside might be that the very small parties (sometimes a little extreme) could be king-makers.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:47:27 GMT
Amazing that the dialogue has shifted so that a referendum on an aspiration is the irreversible will of the people and the ultimate in democracy but a referendum on an actual negotiated deal is seen as anti-democratic and a betrayal. I smell a rat. The democratic issue with a second referendum is only if Remain is still an option - when it lost already. A referendum on type of brexit would be ok - even though it would be silly and now it is Parliament that should decide - deal or no deal! And if people were truly interested in the public's view on the largest constitutional change since WW2, they would be actively seeking clear unambiguous consent on the negotiated deal.
|
|
dandy
Posts: 427
Likes: 341
|
Post by dandy on Dec 11, 2018 10:48:04 GMT
The democratic issue with a second referendum is only if Remain is still an option - when it lost already. A referendum on type of brexit would be ok - even though it would be silly and now it is Parliament that should decide - deal or no deal! It lost against a concept not a reality. Furthermore, I am afraid that the idea that the electorate could never ever change its mind is profoundly antidemocratic. See also: all totalitarian regimes ever. Well now you are stretching in to arch-remoaner territory of believing the electorate to be thick - leaving the EU was not a concept it is the democratic will of the UK people
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,683
Likes: 3,008
|
Post by IFISAcava on Dec 11, 2018 10:50:06 GMT
It lost against a concept not a reality. Furthermore, I am afraid that the idea that the electorate could never ever change its mind is profoundly antidemocratic. See also: all totalitarian regimes ever. Well now you are stretching in to arch-remoaner territory of believing the electorate to be thick - leaving the EU was not a concept it is the democratic will of the UK people you are straying into putting words into my mouth!
|
|
dandy
Posts: 427
Likes: 341
|
Post by dandy on Dec 11, 2018 10:51:19 GMT
The democratic issue with a second referendum is only if Remain is still an option - when it lost already. A referendum on type of brexit would be ok - even though it would be silly and now it is Parliament that should decide - deal or no deal! And if people were truly interested in the public's view on the largest constitutional change since WW2, they would be actively seeking clear unambiguous consent on the negotiated deal. The public does not have the expertise to weigh up a 600 page deal - that is what Parliament is for.
|
|