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Post by captainconfident on Feb 3, 2019 13:12:22 GMT
I noticed the squeals and chortles of delight on Brexit websites when Italy was announced as being in recession, with all the revelling in the illusion that the EU was collapsing. Nobody over here in is doing anything like that as the signs of damage to the UK economy mount. My friends ask me why this is happening to the UK, and they are just sorry.
Euroscepticism is the territory of the far right parties in all EU countries but it is only a mainstream belief in the UK. If you were to bring up objections to the EU in conversation over here, as a starting point the person you were talking to would assume that you intend to express a racist opinion.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Feb 3, 2019 13:52:01 GMT
Nissan has just confirmed that its new SUV won't be made in Sunderland. For sure that won't all be down to Brexit, but some of it will be. I doubt anybody in Sunderland will enjoy the irony . Why is some of it down to Brexit? Surely not because that (near) pensioner on a final salary pension scheme Liberal Democrat Leader Vince Cable says so? If I were responsible for Nissan investment plans I would be looking at a number of factors including demand, productivity, and grants. Comparing demand in Europe for Sep-Nov (Dec 18 not yet available) from 2017 to 2018: Juke -29% Qashqai -40% X-Trail -54% Leaf +257%Clearly, now is not the time to be investing in new production facilities for X-Trail. The good news is that the better performing models will continue to be manufactured in Sunderland.
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 3, 2019 13:56:19 GMT
Nissan has just confirmed that its new SUV won't be made in Sunderland. For sure that won't all be down to Brexit, but some of it will be. I doubt anybody in Sunderland will enjoy the irony . Why is some of it down to Brexit? Surely not because that (near) pensioner on a final salary pension scheme Liberal Democrat Leader Vince Cable says so? If I were responsible for Nissan investment plans I would be looking at a number of factors including demand, productivity, and grants. Comparing demand in Europe for Sep-Nov (Dec 18 not yet available) from 2017 to 2018: Juke -29% Qashqai -40% X-Trail -54% Leaf +257%Clearly, now is not the time to be investing in new production facilities for X-Trail. The good news is that the better performing models will continue to be manufactured in Sunderland. Would it not also be because the EU-Japan trade treaty came into force on 1st February meaning that tariffs are being reduced/scrapped on parts coming from Japan. But the UK will step out of this trade treaty and back behind the tariff wall on 29th March?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Feb 3, 2019 14:12:02 GMT
Why is some of it down to Brexit? Surely not because that (near) pensioner on a final salary pension scheme Liberal Democrat Leader Vince Cable says so? If I were responsible for Nissan investment plans I would be looking at a number of factors including demand, productivity, and grants. Comparing demand in Europe for Sep-Nov (Dec 18 not yet available) from 2017 to 2018: Juke -29% Qashqai -40% X-Trail -54% Leaf +257%Clearly, now is not the time to be investing in new production facilities for X-Trail. The good news is that the better performing models will continue to be manufactured in Sunderland. Would it not also be because the EU-Japan trade treaty came into force on 1st February meaning that tariffs are being reduced/scrapped on parts coming from Japan. But the UK will step out of this trade treaty and back behind the tariff wall on 29th March? Leaf sales in Europe in November 2018 were nearly double those of X-Trail, Leaf sales are rocketing, X-Trail sales are tanking. Leaf production continues in Sunderland.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Feb 3, 2019 14:14:51 GMT
Why is some of it down to Brexit? Surely not because that (near) pensioner on a final salary pension scheme Liberal Democrat Leader Vince Cable says so? If I were responsible for Nissan investment plans I would be looking at a number of factors including demand, productivity, and grants. Comparing demand in Europe for Sep-Nov (Dec 18 not yet available) from 2017 to 2018: Juke -29% Qashqai -40% X-Trail -54% Leaf +257%Clearly, now is not the time to be investing in new production facilities for X-Trail. The good news is that the better performing models will continue to be manufactured in Sunderland. Would it not also be because the EU-Japan trade treaty came into force on 1st February meaning that tariffs are being reduced/scrapped on parts coming from Japan. But the UK will step out of this trade treaty and back behind the tariff wall on 29th March? It is interesting that they decided not to build it in Europe at all, particularly France. Concerns about the direction of the European economy, Brexit impact, French instability? The fact that on a commercial basis it is more cost effective to build it in Japan & ship it to Europe does raise some interesting questions regarding the much heralded trade treaty. Is it actually going to reduce Japanese investment in EU as there is no need to manufacture behind the tariff walls?
Im sure Brexit uncertainty hasnt helped, nor the Ghosn situation as he was a strong advocate I believe, but I suspect the dominant factor was the current weak auto market. Nissan I assume has pan-european just in time supply chains so neither side on the European debate actually wins. Im sure there will be some rational objective anaylsis soon.
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 3, 2019 14:29:45 GMT
I think you're right, didn't they mention shipping in Japanese made X-Trails? That would be a result of the trade treaty. But that's trade, isn't it? The Japanese car market opens up fully to EU car exports. It's exactly what you will be hoping that Dr. Fox can negotiate with the USA etc. and the result will be a lot more US made car imports, while the cars made in the UK, well they might buy a Morgan. www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2018/10/liam-fox-s-american-friends
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 3, 2019 14:39:33 GMT
Nissan has just confirmed that its new SUV won't be made in Sunderland. For sure that won't all be down to Brexit, but some of it will be. I doubt anybody in Sunderland will enjoy the irony . Why is some of it down to Brexit? "In a letter to workers, it says continued Brexit uncertainty is not helping firms to "plan for the future"". www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47107561
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Feb 3, 2019 15:10:05 GMT
I think you're right, didn't they mention shipping in Japanese made X-Trails? That would be a result of the trade treaty. But that's trade, isn't it? The Japanese car market opens up fully to EU car exports. It's exactly what you will be hoping that Dr. Fox can negotiate with the USA etc. and the result will be a lot more US made car imports, while the cars made in the UK, well they might buy a Morgan. www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2018/10/liam-fox-s-american-friendsYes , the x-trail was only made for the Japanese market, Sunderland was going to make the EU version but that is just being made in the Japanese factory now.
Or a Honda Civic which is already exported to US from UK plants.
I guess in the event of a no deal the EU (especially Germany) will hope that Japan will replace the UK market as Brexit has a particularly heavy impact on the EU car industry
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 3, 2019 17:35:46 GMT
It's just an "agreement" that was overwhelmingly supported in two referendums (71% and 94% in favour), so that makes it the will of the people that can't be revisited, no? 71% is hardly overwhelming
An agreement stays in place while the parties to the agreement are happy for it to stay in place. If they are not then it can be renegotiated (The fat boys favourite pass time) or it can be scrapped unilatterally (the recent Nissan approach). It's a bit naive to suggest that all agreements were intended to last in perpetuity.
My only caveat would be that you have to be sensible about the timings. Scotland voted to remain in the UK, so I wouldn't expect another vote 6 months after the first (25 years later maybe).
Common sense suggests that the UK and the Irish republic should be in negotiations to agree how the border will operate if there is a no deal brexit. The problem is that if they agree something then the UK will immediately say 'why can't we have this as the fall back position instead of the backstop'. That's the last thing the EU want.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Feb 3, 2019 18:53:47 GMT
We won't need cars as all the motorways will be blocked by parked lorries.
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 3, 2019 19:01:59 GMT
Yeah and a few fewer German Rep-mobiles on the road wouldn't go amiss either. Buy a Jaguar if you need to feel reassured about your status. But cars are not the whole economy. The big question, indeed the elephant in the room is this:- "A surplus of £28 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods". researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdfIt seems to me that the all Brexit commentary focuses on goods, because that is something we can all imagine. But "trade in services" is where the UK has a surplus with the EU, and discussion on the effect of brexit on this is neglected. In the event that the May Government can get to the trade negotiations stage of withdrawing from the EU, the UK looks set to be holding no cards with respect to our main export because of the Red Lines adopted by the Prime Minister. "The big obstacle to trade in services is not tariffs but non-tariff barriers (NTBs), such as differing national regulatory standards. While some NTBs may be deliberate means of restricting imports, most arise from genuine differences in national approaches to solving public-policy problems. The EU has been determinedly, if slowly, breaking down the regulatory barriers to trade in services, through a combination of mutual recognition of member states’ rules and supranational rules in other sectors, such as financial services. Where the requirements of cross-border service providers clash with the public policy requirements of a member state, the European Court of Justice acts as the arbiter.
it is impossible to simultaneously oppose the existence of collective European institutions such as the European Court of Justice and the European Commission and enjoy a deep and comprehensive trade deal with the EU that addresses NTBs to services. To insist on the full sovereignty of Westminster is essentially to demand that its sovereignty takes precedence over the sovereignty of all other parliaments in a services deal. This approach can only have one outcome: a trade deal that does nothing about NTBs to the trade in services, leaving UK services firms operating according to different rules from EU member states, and trading much less with them".
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 3, 2019 19:47:22 GMT
Yeah and a few fewer German Rep-mobiles on the road wouldn't go amiss either. Buy a Jaguar if you need to feel reassured about your status. But cars are not the whole economy. The big question, indeed the elephant in the room is this:- "A surplus of £28 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods". researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdfIt seems to me that the all Brexit commentary focuses on goods, because that is something we can all imagine. But "trade in services" is where the UK has a surplus with the EU, and discussion on the effect of brexit on this is neglected.
Well yes, because that is the tangible, and something the “isn’t it dreadful we import a,b, c” can get worked up about. An important point on services is it is typically the last thing to get pulled into trade agreements. So wherever we go from here, the impact on services, including, and probably particularly, financial services, will be a problem.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Feb 3, 2019 20:43:07 GMT
There is very little we can't grow,make or get from elsewhere. We have North sea oi & Gasl (Until Scotland Keeps it ) Gas ( see previous and get fracking.)
Heat greenhouses and we can grow anything. It may cost a little (All figures quoted give highest allowed tarrif on WTO) more but it is not in struggling EU intrest to hold up agreeing a mutually benificial trade policy.
No matter what the country would be much better off than with a Jeremy Corbin government.
I see Labour party is bust and looking at cutting pensions etc to Staff. Is that not austerity cuts ?
Can't manage their party finances how the hell can they manage a country?
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 3, 2019 20:48:58 GMT
I've recovered now, back to work tomorrow, so I'll hand the floor back to all you Brexit boys and gals. I apologies to everyone I was rough with and possibly rude to but I was feeling ill and grumpy and had too much time on my hands.
I know I really should have been reading the great literature of the world, but Brexit is like a kind of real life Game of Thrones with new installments every day. Will Robot Woman succeed in her quest for the glittering prize in the lair of the Euro trolls? Or will she return empty handed and be torn to bits by her scheming bodyguards? Actually I didn't like GoT very much, and I'm sure I'm missing an analogy to Jeremy Corbyn's place in all this.
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Post by samford71 on Feb 3, 2019 21:01:34 GMT
Yeah and a few fewer German Rep-mobiles on the road wouldn't go amiss either. Buy a Jaguar if you need to feel reassured about your status. But cars are not the whole economy. The big question, indeed the elephant in the room is this:- "A surplus of £28 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods". researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdfIt seems to me that the all Brexit commentary focuses on goods, because that is something we can all imagine. But "trade in services" is where the UK has a surplus with the EU, and discussion on the effect of brexit on this is neglected. In the event that the May Government can get to the trade negotiations stage of withdrawing from the EU, the UK looks set to be holding no cards with respect to our main export because of the Red Lines adopted by the Prime Minister. Unfortunately the general public still remains of the view that manufacturing should be the engine of the economy and the source for employment. In the case of the UK this is utter nonsense and has been so for 150 years. The last time the economy had a larger percentage of the labour force in manufacturing than in services was the 1870s. Manufacturing has never employed more than around 38% of the labour force. As for agriculture and fishing, these are completely negligible at <1% of the workforce. In 2017, the service industries accounted for 79% of total UK economic output (GVA) and accounted for 83% jobs. Even Germany is now over 70% services, manufacturing <30% and falling steadily.
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