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Post by captainconfident on Mar 11, 2019 18:43:09 GMT
"Betrayed" is a bit too strong. Disappointed, too weak maybe? Sorry I didn't tag you mrclondon . But thanks for the answers so far. Edit, I see I could have better asked this the other way around. Dear Tagged People, would you be happy to see TM's deal voted through tomorrow?
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Post by samford71 on Mar 11, 2019 19:14:23 GMT
Looks like it wasn't Project Fear - It was Project Not Fearful Enough "the hit to London was bigger than expected and would get worse" 'Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe' www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47522347I think the impact on the UK finance industry of Brexit is substantial since, whether we get No-deal or the TM deal, the issues of our service sector (which is 79% of the economy by GVA and 83% by job numbers) have been almost completely ignored. Instead we've focussed on manfacturing, agriculture and fishing which don't even make up 10% of the economy. In headline terms, London will seem to be impacted. This will be visible mainly by the return of European expats to places such as Paris and Frankfurt. This has (and will) suppress property prices in certain parts of London, where those ex-pats are living. The majority of the jobs, however, will not actually be lost in London. Leaving the EU impacts mainly settlement and clearing operations (so back-office roles) that have to be legally moved into the EU. Most of those jobs are not located in London but now spread over the country in cheaper places (Bournemouth, Glasgow, Basildon etc). Far less of this activity occurs in London.
One of the ironic things about Brexit, is that while it will damage the country economically in the medium-term (especially a no-deal Brexit), the parts of the UK most able to adapt to the type of post-Brexit Britain that the Tory Ultras want are all remainer strongholds (Edinburgh, Manchester etc) but, most especially, London. The only way for London to suffer vs. the rest of the country would be with something like a Corbyn government. One of the oddest things to see in the whole Brexit process was to see a (minority) of people voting Leave to essentially "stick it to London". In the absence of the Corbyn scenario, Brexit or No-brexit, the wealth gap between London and the rest of the UK will continue to widen. It remains a case of "heads London wins, tails you lose".
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jj
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Post by jj on Mar 11, 2019 19:17:46 GMT
Problem is we have a remainer PM who has no intension of giving a no deal Brexit.
No planning at all has been done into a no deal Brexit. Quite ironic giving that the remainers blame leavers for the mess.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 11, 2019 19:26:49 GMT
This will be visible mainly by the return of European expats to places such as Paris and Frankfurt. This has (and will) suppress property prices in certain parts of London, where those ex-pats are living. A minor personal anecdote - a friend of mine works for a start-up owned by two French guys. One of the French chap's wives works for the European Medicines Agency. This was based in London. It is moving to Amsterdam, as is the wife, and the associated co-founder (and three children, one of whom has British nationality because they were born here). They are a service company. Because of uncertainty about the UK's trade position with Europe vis a vis services, and because some of their European clients have told them that they are unwilling to sign new business because of current legal / contractual uncertainty, their "head office" is also moving to Amsterdam. They've downsized their London premises and all new employment will be in the EU. Now, the company isn't, and won't be, any "unicorn", but the themes are clear. Incidentally, when they first approached the Home Office about the family's residency / right to remain status the initial answer was "the child who was born here can stay, the other two will need to leave". That's not, shall we say, "how to win friends and influence people".
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2019 19:37:13 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2019 19:41:39 GMT
Depends on what the deal is. Her original deal was a sh*t deal, but unfortunately that doesn't preclude it from being the best deal on offer.
As somebody who voted remain, I am slowly moving into the 'no deal is better than any available deal' camp.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 11, 2019 19:59:22 GMT
This will be visible mainly by the return of European expats to places such as Paris and Frankfurt. This has (and will) suppress property prices in certain parts of London, where those ex-pats are living. A minor personal anecdote - a friend of mine works for a start-up owned by two French guys. One of the French chap's wives works for the European Medicines Agency. This was based in London. It is moving to Amsterdam, as is the wife, and the associated co-founder (and three children, one of whom has British nationality because they were born here). They are a service company. Because of uncertainty about the UK's trade position with Europe vis a vis services, and because some of their European clients have told them that they are unwilling to sign new business because of current legal / contractual uncertainty, their "head office" is also moving to Amsterdam. They've downsized their London premises and all new employment will be in the EU. Now, the company isn't, and won't be, any "unicorn", but the themes are clear. Incidentally, when they first approached the Home Office about the family's residency / right to remain status the initial answer was "the child who was born here can stay, the other two will need to leave". That's not, shall we say, "how to win friends and influence people". The Home Office, as well as being deeply unpleasant from a human standpoint IMHO, lacks basic economic sense. As way of minor compensation, the people you mention are at least likely eligible for the "30% ruling" (it was 35% in my very happy days there!) that the Dutch government kindly offers to attract highly skilled immigrants to the Netherlands with open arms. Worlds apart in their attitudes followed through to policy level. I know which bunch I have more time for, and not just because of the tax breaks.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 11, 2019 20:02:42 GMT
Problem is we have a remainer PM who has no intension of giving a no deal Brexit.
No planning at all has been done into a no deal Brexit. Quite ironic giving that the remainers blame leavers for the mess.
For the umpteenth time - no deal Brexit was not what the Leave campaign ran on, no matter what some here now think all Leave voters were voting for
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 11, 2019 20:05:05 GMT
Depends on what the deal is. Her original deal was a sh*t deal, but unfortunately that doesn't preclude it from being the best deal on offer.
As somebody who voted remain, I am slowly moving into the 'no deal is better than any available deal' camp.
can no one really see that a no deal departure in 18 days would be a nightmare? Fortunately Parliament won't let it happen.
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Mar 11, 2019 20:16:13 GMT
I wouldn't be happy to see the current withdrawal agreement voted through tomorrow.
-I think the financial agreement is effectively money for nothing for the EU because there is no committment to a future free trade deal. The amount £39bn is over twice our current contribution rate of £9bn for the 2 years and I expect we'll get to this exact same point in 2 years and they'll want more to extend the transition period.
-The backstop either breaks up the UK or keeps us permanently in the customs union with no unilateral exit for the UK. Leaving the customs union was something that both sides stated would definitely happen if we voted to leave during the referendum campaign. Since I think it's unlikely any politicians are going to break up the UK in future, instead we'll just get stuck in the customs union i.e. remain -It leaves us subject to EU laws without having a vote.
-Finally it just keeps everything in limbo for at least a further 2 years. No deal might discourage some foreign investors and encourage others but having years of political uncertainty puts off all investors.
The deal in summary as I see it is remain, increase financial contributions, lose voting rights and be potentially subject to new rules designed to punish the UK further.
Edit:
For the umpteenth time - no deal Brexit was not what the Leave campaign ran on, no matter what some here now think all Leave voters were voting for
I think a free trade deal would be in both EU's and UK's interests but I don't think that the EU are going to give us one unless we actually leave. Instead I think they want to politically manoeuvre us back into the EU in the next 5 years by trapping us in the backstop, financially punishing us then having another referendum to rejoin. If we actually left without a trade deal I think there would be massive pressure from German car manufacturers and other EU businesses on their national politicians to get a deal in place quickly when tariffs have become a reality.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 11, 2019 20:35:21 GMT
See, I agree with all my leaver friends about this. I think the TM deal as it stands just shifts us to a second division relationship with the EU.
Leaving with no deal will never get through parliament, even after a new election, so you might as well forget about it.
So best bet is to stop damaging the economy any further and stay in the top league with the other countries by keeping the deal we have.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 11, 2019 20:35:42 GMT
Depends on what the deal is. Her original deal was a sh*t deal, but unfortunately that doesn't preclude it from being the best deal on offer.
As somebody who voted remain, I am slowly moving into the 'no deal is better than any available deal' camp.
can no one really see that a no deal departure in 18 days would be a nightmare? Fortunately Parliament won't let it happen. Given the short notice at this point I tend to agree, it would be sensible for TM to request a 2 month delay in Brexit to ensure both sides have the opportunity to formalise the draft agreements (that are ready in the background) for the relatively few issues that do need an immediate day 1 no-deal legal solution (Aviation, Visas, SBAs in Cyprus) and to give adequate notice of the provisions contained therein.
Two serious problems though, the politicians on both sides need to push through the paperwork to extend art 50 before 29th. On the EU side some countries are against an extension in principal, but the more serious problem though is in the UK where it needs the existing withdrawal act amending, and even though it will be via a statutory instrument, the process to approve it is unlikely to be smooth.
The current legal position is we leave on the 29th March with no deal. The votes on Wed/Thur this week re no deal and/or extension are not in themselves anything other than "opinion polls"
( I know this wasn't what you meant .... )
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 11, 2019 21:22:53 GMT
The current legal position is we leave on the 29th March with no deal. The votes on Wed/Thur this week re no deal and/or extension are not in themselves anything other than "opinion polls"
I still don't understand how no deal gets stopped. I assume we cannot replace it with an extension unless the EU unanimously agree to it (unlikely to happen before 29th?).
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 11, 2019 21:30:53 GMT
The current legal position is we leave on the 29th March with no deal. The votes on Wed/Thur this week re no deal and/or extension are not in themselves anything other than "opinion polls"
I still don't understand how no deal gets stopped. I assume we cannot replace it with an extension unless the EU unanimously agree to it (unlikely to happen before 29th?). If this weeks votes go as expected (May deal rejected, no deal rejected, extension approved) it will be worth a small bet on brexit taking place on 29th March.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 11, 2019 21:52:00 GMT
Quite frankly I feel like driving my tank over their bicycles if we don't leave . I'll be in Georgia on the 29th and by then even Grozny might seem appealing.
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