james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 26, 2019 16:58:08 GMT
Two things I've picked up from a worried well connected lib dem that bare some thought - his observation that a sizable minority on Saturday's march were not speaking English amongst themselves, coupled with some research that was discussed on Radio 5 on Sunday that the revoke petition signatories are predominately from known remain areas of the country, particularly London. (And hence continue to reflect the split nature of the UK geographically - this has relevance in any early GE)
Said lib dem, a true EU fanatic believes that a straight leave vs remain referendum will produce the same result unless it is rigged ( my choice of word, his was sanitised) by including EU citizens resident in the UK. This apparently is where the next battleground will be, along with reducing the voting age to 16. Polls (of UK citizens) show a consistent and clear Remain majority now for quite some time. Given the conspicuous absence of any attempt to find a consensus for most voters in an almost 50/50 split electorate (i.e. a soft Brexit), and in the event of an outcome that is clearly only for Leave voters (i.e. a hard Brexit or no deal Brexit) it would be both political folly and antidemocratic in my view not to get ratification of May's deal or no deal by referendum. (As an aside, many EU citizens have already or are in the process of taking up UK citizenship since referendum). Re rigging the vote: personally, I consider it was a fix last time to exclude those who have the most to lose in any Leave/Remain decision (UK citizens using FOM to live abroad, EU citizens who are long term UK residents, and 16/17 year olds - who were old enough to decide on Scottish but not UK constitutional issues!). The changes to voter registration procedures haven't helped either. britainelects.com/polling/europe/Poll aggregation (YouGov, Survation, TNS, BMG, Deltapoll, ICM, Opinium) with results individually sourced and mapped over time. "Leave" managed to tie with "Remain" most recently 3 Dec 18 (including undecideds) or 1 Sept 18 (stripping out undecideds), and the last time they were actually in the lead (by just 1 point) was almost a year ago on 14 April 2018.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Mar 26, 2019 17:24:43 GMT
... some research that was discussed on Radio 5 on Sunday that the revoke petition signatories are predominately from known remain areas of the country, particularly London. (And hence continue to reflect the split nature of the UK geographically - this has relevance in any early GE)
... See here www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/ for a running analysis of votes by constituency. Distribution of signatures is much as you'd expect - a higher % in remain-leaning areas. I've not done the math but on the face of it you might guess it's a roughly uniform ratio of signatures / remain votes. 5.75M as I look right now. Not a trivial number.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 26, 2019 17:42:34 GMT
Although it's very soft data (or hardly passes muster as data) one thing I have noticed that I find interesting is the change in tone on the "Have Your Say" sections for BBC Brexit related stories. Ignoring the content, or indeed the quality of the comments, until very recently the pro-leave comments received the most up votes, and by some margin.
That now appears to have changed, with pro-remain (or at least anti-leave?) comments receiving the most upvotes.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 26, 2019 17:53:32 GMT
Although it's very soft data (or hardly passes muster as data) one thing I have noticed that I find interesting is the change in tone on the "Have Your Say" sections for BBC Brexit related stories. Ignoring the content, or indeed the quality of the comments, until very recently the pro-leave comments received the most up votes, and by some margin. That now appears to have changed, with pro-remain (or at least anti-leave?) comments receiving the most upvotes. who needs any referendums when you have online meida "likes" to guide the executive :-) Actually, do we have an executive at the moment ?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Mar 26, 2019 18:18:03 GMT
Recreate Brexit at home by getting your children to vote on what they want for dinner. When they've decided, keep telling them you're making it. After 3 years, throw their dinner at the wall and laugh in their stupid faces for thinking that voting for anything made a difference. Comedy Unleashed
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 26, 2019 18:27:36 GMT
That link is very funny. The comments below the tweet are genuinely fabulous.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 26, 2019 18:53:45 GMT
Recreate Brexit at home by getting your children to vote on what they want for dinner. When they've decided, keep telling them you're making it. After 3 years, throw their dinner at the wall and laugh in their stupid faces for thinking that voting for anything made a difference. Comedy UnleashedMake it even more realistic by having offered them Willi Wonka specialities like everlasting gobstoppers.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 26, 2019 22:23:41 GMT
Recreate Brexit at home by getting your children to vote on what they want for dinner. When they've decided, keep telling them you're making it. After 3 years, throw their dinner at the wall and laugh in their stupid faces for thinking that voting for anything made a difference. Comedy UnleashedMake it even more realistic by having offered them Willi Wonka specialities like everlasting gobstoppers. I thought we were guaranteed the golden ticket?
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Mar 27, 2019 9:29:55 GMT
OK, so I've just joined a 91 page thread. Not sure what's contained in those 91 pages , far too much to read, but to my mind the answer to the original question "Does Brexit deliver the electorates vote ?" is pretty straightforward.
Let us first remind ourselves what we actually voted on. This is the exact question asked on the ballot paper : "Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU ?" As we all know , 48% voted "remain" and 52% voted "leave".
So the answer is that Brexit will indeed deliver the electorates vote , as long as we leave the EU by any means , whether it be by Mrs May's deal , or by another deal, or by no deal at all.
So many Brexit voters keep saying things like "When I voted for Brexit, I didn't vote for Teresa May's terrible deal ...... " , or "When I voted Brexit, I didn't vote for a hard Irish border". Well that's true, but they didn't vote against these things either. And they most certainly didn't vote for something written on the side of a bus, or a politician's promise either (we all know what they are worth). They voted for exactly what was printed on the ballot paper. They voted to leave the EU. That's it. Period. And assuming we do actually leave, they will get precisely what they asked for.
Moral of the story ? Be careful what you wish for.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 27, 2019 16:01:59 GMT
we were due to "Brexit" in 2 days time. We are still due to Brexit in about 14 days time.
Parliament has just manage to start the debate as to what type of Brexit and future arrangement the UK should have.
Utterly surreal.
Would be laughable if it wasn't for the fact this is my country and our future, not some land far far away.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 27, 2019 16:38:09 GMT
we were due to "Brexit" in 2 days time. We are still due to Brexit in about 14 days time.
Parliament has just manage to start the debate as to what type of Brexit and future arrangement the UK should have.
Utterly surreal.
Would be laughable if it wasn't for the fact this is my country and our future, not some land far far away.
Keeps the MPs amused. Perhaps they should have watched the BBC last night, when a law professor explained -the indicative votes (assuming any of them are passed) don't become law -even if the HoC somehow got them to become law (e.g. by passing an Act), they can be overturned as is the case with any law.
I suspect that if these votes push May in a direction she doesn't want the Tories to go, she'll manufacture a GE. It would then be really amusing to see if either the Tories or Labour could come up with a coherent Brexit position.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 27, 2019 18:21:50 GMT
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 27, 2019 18:26:59 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 27, 2019 18:39:19 GMT
Except we'll probably get another Liberal masquerading as a Tory.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 27, 2019 18:41:40 GMT
Except we'll probably get another Liberal masquerading as a Tory. Chris Grayling? He's got the Teflon qualities necessary.
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