scc
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Post by scc on Nov 30, 2018 10:19:09 GMT
There could be some good bargains to pick up in secondary markets as people panic sell P2P investments or withdraw offers due to losses in stock markets etc. I saw this happen immediately after the referendum result.
Personally, I'd expect stock market volatility in the few weeks after Brexit (whatever it looks like) but wider economy effects won't start being visible until at least a few months afterwards. I'd be surprised if they are good for the first year or two, but after that - who knows. Is Brexit worse than 2008? Personally I doubt it.
As ever, DYOR.
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Post by carol167 on Nov 30, 2018 12:05:00 GMT
During the 2008 crash... sometime around there (I forget exactly when)...when things were dire and people were queueing to get their money out.... Northern Rock started offering 6% fixed for 5 years on ISA's.
I rushed to get my ISA's transferred in before the deadline. Best decision I ever made :-)
One way to look at it is that *if* and I stress the if, people have less money after Brexit - perhaps they are more likely to borrow.
There's always different ways to look at things.
Personally I hope we do go out on WTO rules. It's not a no deal - I don't know why people are calling it that - it's a WTO deal. Which is the best chance for us to do our own thing.
I am a strong believer in our country and feel the future is rosy if we can just get past the post and the short term disruption.
[Edit: I would add that if you are worried about loosing substantial amounts of money and can ill afford to do so - then perhaps p-2-p investing is not for you.]
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 30, 2018 12:26:49 GMT
During the 2008 crash... sometime around there (I forget exactly when)...when things were dire and people were queueing to get their money out.... Northern Rock started offering 6% fixed for 5 years on ISA's.
I rushed to get my ISA's transferred in before the deadline. Best decision I ever made :-)
One way to look at it is that *if* and I stress the if, people have less money after Brexit - perhaps they are more likely to borrow.
There's always different ways to look at things.
Personally I hope we do go out on WTO rules. It's not a no deal - I don't know why people are calling it that - it's a WTO deal. Which is the best chance for us to do our own thing.
I am a strong believer in our country and feel the future is rosy if we can just get past the post and the short term disruption.
[Edit: I would add that if you are worried about loosing substantial amounts of money and can ill afford to do so - then perhaps p-2-p investing is not for you.]
no need to stress the if - the only uncertainty is how much less.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Nov 30, 2018 12:38:13 GMT
One way to look at it is that *if* and I stress the if, people have less money after Brexit - perhaps they are more likely to borrow.
There's always different ways to look at things.
no need to stress the if - the only uncertainty is how much less. I would say that is a very BIG and ARGUABLE "if". The only thing that would be certain is that we start with an extra £39 BILLION - so actually we are GUARANTEED to be better off on day 1! No experts needed. It is very sad how the govt has negotiated with a fragmented institution we could have run rings around.
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Post by carol167 on Nov 30, 2018 14:21:32 GMT
I think we also need to make the distinction between "worse off" as in poorer than we are now in real terms - verses "worse off" as in not as well off in 15 years time as we might have been - which is still better off than we are now. A lot of the analysis and verdicts are very carefully worded so everyone assumes the former.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Nov 30, 2018 14:53:25 GMT
Was just wondering if anyone thinks it is a good idea to liquidate all p2p holdings in the event of a no deal due to the catastrophic effects it will have on the UK economy ? Or not ? I mean interest rates will go up anyways with more secure Banks and Building Societies. If this is a discussion of liquidating all p2p holdings why post in RS? Do what makes you sleep most easily at night.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Nov 30, 2018 18:00:27 GMT
If this is a discussion of liquidating all p2p holdings why post in RS? Do what makes you sleep most easily at night. I've moved move this thread to here and also merged a similar one into it.
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gibmike
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What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
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Post by gibmike on Nov 30, 2018 19:39:52 GMT
I have read with some interest the wide and varying views on here about disaster/ hope/ worry/ opportunity and a lot of it has merit combined. The issue is so complex that I picked one person to listen to and this was the person:
This was written in 2014, some time before the charade came about to the state we are in now. He argues many points (not being an economist I can only blink and nod at a lot of the numbers) that as a layperson I can understand. It is simple to read and explains it all.
Anyway that is not answering the topic. Here is what I think will happen in the short term (2-3 years):
Increase in Loan Interest Rates The market will suffer but in turn your return should increase to counterbalance the risk. Whether this be via discounted loans or increased interest rates
Revaluations of Property
I would argue that any dramatic impact on property prices should be reflected in the LTV of all loans on platforms. Especially 3/4 year plus loans
Defaults I expect to see loans default as a result of "Brexit" with many using it as an excuse to stop payments/ liquidate themselves
So some ups and some downs reflecting the effect of Brexit but overall the world needs P2P platforms to fill the gap left by the banks. There are still a huge amount of entrepreneurs in the UK who I believe are the wealth generators and will find profit in anything. The chancers are here and will always be here.
I am slowly reducing my P2P holding, but as a result of the performance of individual than anything else. I am holding my cash in a few monthly payment funds (1 GBP and 1 USD) which are asset backed (rather than a fund of stocks) to build a chunk of cash to move back in if the market is favourable or keep outside earning me 8-10% per annum.
As a few people have said, irrespective of Brexit, this is a risky game and your money can be tied up for years in defaults so be careful.
I'll stop now, I think I have sent myself off to sleep!
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sussexlender
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Post by sussexlender on Dec 1, 2018 11:39:31 GMT
Hi gibmike
Thanks for the really helpful post and link. Greatly appreciated.
Any chance of pointing other investors in the direction of the monthly paying GBP cash account which is asset backed that you mention?
Regards, SXLR
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boundah
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Post by boundah on Dec 1, 2018 12:13:58 GMT
Really? You don't think that a massive recession and unemployment rising to circa 7.5% would impact personal P2P lending? As I said winners and loser - I don't think there will be a massive recession I don't think there will be 7.5% unemployment, ( If you measured employment on UK people.) This is the problem with a free movement of people.. Things get disstorted , you get bubble of prosperity and that destroys poor communities. People run to the big city which grows faster than it can cope. There certainly will be a slowdown in growth, but I don't think thats a bad thing - I think the world is overpopulated and we have relied too much on the mindset of consumerism , greed is good etc. We don't need to grow anymore , however this is how prosperity is measured. we need to develop other places in the world. Spread the growth rather than suck it all to one place .. Surely the EU was made on the basis of spreading the wealth , but in fact its just drawn people to the success. I guess I'm thinking and presuming that some of the people being unemployed would leave the UK, and thus make way for other people to be employed. Hence why I say we need a proper shake up.. But if we do go through with it, we're a bit stuffed as to where to invest in the UK; This is why I say all ares of investing will be affected .. Cash is king when the BOE has to raise rates, also it will give you opportunity to invest in things when others are selling... Again just my opinion.. Wow, you're sounding like you know a whole lot about how the economy works. Remember: we hold all the cards (Gove), there will be no downside to Brexit (Davis), getting out of the EU will be quick and easy (Redwood), and trade relations with the EU can be sorted out over a cup of tea (Batten). I'd far rather put my faith in these titans of economics than those so-called experts at the Treasury, the Bank of England, the NIESR and the IMF.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Dec 3, 2018 12:14:33 GMT
Was just wondering if anyone thinks it is a good idea to liquidate all p2p holdings in the event of a no deal due to the catastrophic effects it will have on the UK economy ? Or not ? I mean interest rates will go up anyways with more secure Banks and Building Societies. not combative question - what will push interest rates up in banks etc? thanks
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Dec 3, 2018 12:20:49 GMT
Can I ask what sort of foreign currency assets you are investing in? Equities, P2P, or something else? Via P2P investments trusts - RDL and VSL. RDL is in close down mode due to a bad sub investment, so probably not one to get into now. VSL returns ~10% at present and is at a discount to assets, which are ~80% in USD. There’s also P2P and HONY, P2P returns far less and HONY is at a 10% premium to assets, so I avoid. As always, this is not investment advice, merely what I like at present. I'm in some of those. Do you think there's a divide in housing issue between south east and elsewhere? I can't help thinking that there are so many people waiting to buy that if there is a slight dip, it would be pushed back up again. Unless Brexit is going to bring about changes in rules for overseas landladies/lords; or that loads of houses will be built because that is where it is seen jobs can be created in order to shore up the economy...
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Dec 3, 2018 13:42:53 GMT
there are also a number of bonus offers on at the moment. I've been addressed in paper post about a registered account somewhere with a bonus for starting to invest. I've been thinking this is either owing to impending concerns about Brexit, or reticence caused by outcomes of a current and well known claim-game by a borrower.
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mary
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Post by mary on Dec 3, 2018 17:28:29 GMT
I'm in some of those. Do you think there's a divide in housing issue between south east and elsewhere? I can't help thinking that there are so many people waiting to buy that if there is a slight dip, it would be pushed back up again. Unless Brexit is going to bring about changes in rules for overseas landladies/lords; or that loads of houses will be built because that is where it is seen jobs can be created in order to shore up the economy... Property prices in London have been falling for ~1 year, and prices in my area of the south are also now moving down. What starts in London usually ripples out eventually. None of the Brexit outcomes are positive for the bankers in the City and removing that wealth will take a lot to overcome. Just depends if it’s a short/mild downturn, or the catastrophic -30% worst case scenario laid out by the Bank of England.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 3, 2018 17:38:47 GMT
I’ve been withdrawing with varying speed from most platforms due to increased risks. I’m out of all property (defaults excepted), and stopped reinvestments in SMEs (Assetz excepted as highly diversified via GBBA2) and withdrawing from RS as rates are now too low. However, as a counter I’m increasing non GPB investments as, in the event of a catastrophic Brexit the £ will plummet, thereby increasing the value of my foreign currency denominated assets. If things go better than expected, then there is a small downside risk for these investments, but given the current climate that’s ok for me. But surely the currency markets have priced everything in already? Buying dollars (or whatever) I think is gambling isn't it? I can't see how political uncertainty could get much worse and wouldn't virtually any 3 month outcome other than a "crash out" result in a sterling gain? Even a no-deal would at least provide the beginnings of some kind of stability although agree it likely would involve more weakening of the pound (could that could be the bottom of the market for the pound and the time to buy it??)
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